U.S. Equity Markets traded sideways for most of Friday’s session before a late surge saw both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 close at new all-time highs as both Indexes gained 0.5%. Vaccine optimism boosted markets throughout Friday. President Joe Biden said the government made an agreement to purchase another 200 million coronavirus vaccine doses, increasing the domestic supply by roughly 50%. And Moderna got approval to increase the amount of the vaccine in each vial, potentially adding to the available supply. In terms of economic data, Consumer Sentiment fell to a six-month low, as respondents became more pessimistic on the near-term economic outlook. Earnings season unofficially wrapped up strongly, after Disney beat on both profit and sales. For the entire season, 80% of S&P 500 have beaten estimates. That is the third-highest percentage since FactSet began tracking the data in 2008. European Markets also closed higher on Friday. Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi won backing from Italy’s largest parliamentary party, putting him one step closer to forming a new government. European Parliament approved the European Union’s recovery fund, which consists of $814 billion in grants and loans to assist economies through the pandemic. The British economy had its worst quarter in 300 years, but beat estimates as the decline was not as steep as feared. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 19.4 million, with a daily average of 622,000 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil Closed higher by 2.24% while Gold fell 0.34% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 83 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1245 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.47% higher at a price of 3934.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28 points higher for a 0.09% gain at a price of 31,458.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.53% higher at a price of 13,808.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.91% higher at a price of 30,084. This is the first time that the Nikkei has closed over 30,000 since 1990.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.2138.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at $1.3861.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% lower at 104.91 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at -0.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.52%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.21%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.24% higher at $58.94 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.34% lower at $1,818.30 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance and Industrial Production at 10.00 am. The U.S is closed for the Presidents’ Day Holiday.
March S&P 500
The relentless move higher in the S&P shows no sign of stopping. This morning the S&P is trading at 3948, 290 handles higher than where we were two weeks ago. The market is now severely overbought but as long as the Fed continue to support markets it is difficult to be short for any length of time. We all know that this move will end in tears. Technically, the S&P could rally further to 4080/4130 first before we finally see a meaningful correction. With real unemployment close to 10%, the positivity surrounding the vaccine and the latest Stimulus Bill is now priced into the American Indices. This latest move higher has me short at an average rate of 3839. I will leave my 3861 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Remember the Cash Indices are closed today, while the Futures Globex Market will shut at 4.30 pm before re-opening again at 11.00 pm. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 3932. The S&P Has strong support from 3890/3910 and I will move my buy level higher to this area with a 3875 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3922.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.2100 buy level before rallying to my 1.2128 revised T/ level and I am still flat. The Euro has support from 1.2070/1.2110 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1.2025 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
After the Dollar traded higher to my 90.65 sell level we saw a small retracement, allowing me to cover this position at my revised 90.50 T/P level and I am still flat. Today. I will again be a seller from 90.55/90.95 with a 91.31 stop.
March DAX
The DAX opened near the top of Friday’s sell range at a price of 14130. In the last few minutes, the DAX has sold off and I have now exited this position here at 14090 and I am now flat. The DAX has resistance from 14180/14250 where I will again be a seller with a 14315 stop.
March FTSE
With over 15 million people vaccinated in the UK, it is no wonder that both the FTSE and Sterling have surged since last Friday. The roll-out vaccination programme in both the UK and U.S is leaving Europe in a dark place. This morning the FTSE is trading 150 points higher than where I marked prices last Friday morning. I will now raise my buy level to 6480/6550 with a 6435 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The VIX closed 6% lower at a price of 19.97 on Friday. This is the first time the VIX has broken and closed below 20 since the February 2020. The VIX is severely oversold and due a major bounce. This expected move higher will finally see a correction the American Indexes. I am still flat the Dow and today I will continue to be a small seller from 31730/31900 with the same 32050 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Dow at this time.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ has traded higher to my sell range from Friday and I am now short here at 13835. I will add to this trade at 13915 while leave my stop unchanged at a 14005 ‘’Closing Price’’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 13750 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
The BUND traded the whole of Friday’s buy range and I am now long at an average price of 175.85. I will leave my stop unchanged at 175.28 while lowering my T/P level to 175.98.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a small buyer from 1788/1800 with the same 1779 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 26.10/26.70 with a higher 25.65 stop.
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