U.S. Indexes closed higher on Friday, with only healthcare trading in the red. Breadth was strong, led in Materials, Staples, and Communications. A rally in Meta supported the Comms sector despite a slight downside in Alphabet following Zuckerberg saying the new model outperforms Gemini 3.1 Pro. Separately, US Global Jets (ETF) traded 1% lower after a Delta Air Lines earnings and guidance beat failed to impress investors. US data and trade updates were light, meaning geopolitical events became the main focus to end the week. New developments included US President Trump being more assertive that the US-Iran ceasefire is over, “in no uncertain terms, that the ceasefire is over (prev. said “I think”) and reiterated that talks are to continue. Overall, crude prices were modestly lower, perhaps as strikes in the region lessened, although traffic has slowed in the Strait of Hormuz in the last couple of days. Despite the move lower in energy prices, US yields were higher across the curve, particularly on the short-end. This likely put a floor under the Dollar, which has struggled this week despite the renewed geopolitical risk. Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen outperformed following comments from the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, “they are to pursue steps to promote investment in Japanese assets by GPIF and others”. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar saw a limited reaction towards a better-than-expected June jobs report. Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony to the House and Senate this week, the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report reiterated that inflation remains elevated, citing tariffs alongside developments in the Middle East and AI as contributing factors; a limited reaction was seen. Elsewhere, trading conditions were relatively quiet with no major US economic data released. Attention now turns to this week’s CPI and PPI reports, where headline CPI is expected to ease on the month as it reflects the unwind in energy prices following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June, although the subsequent breakdown in the ceasefire leaves upside risks to the inflation outlook. Reports had suggested that US-Iran talks would continue next week, but the Iranian press denied the report. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.8% while Gold ended Friday’s session with a 0.5% loss.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1120 points on Friday and is now ahead by 3574 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 7575.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 149 points higher for a 0.29% gain at a price of 52,637.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.33% higher at a price of 29,825.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.04% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.20% higher at 68,557.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.06% higher.
The Euro closed 0.01% lower at $1.1413.
The British Pound closed 0.15% higher at $1.3397.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.39% closing at $161.70.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 9 basis points lower at 4.89%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points lower at 3.04%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.56%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.80% lower at $71.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.52% lower at $4102.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic front we have no data of note on either side of the Atlantic which is highly unusual. However, we have a host of Central Bank Speakers today: Bowman at 10.25 am, Waller at 5.30 pm, Schnabel from the ECB at 12.45 pm, Pill from the Bank of England at 2.00 pm and finally ECB President Lagarde at 10.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Inflation and the Fed take center stage this week. June CPI hits Tuesday alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s House testimony, with PPI, the Beige Book, and Warsh’s Senate testimony on Wednesday. Bank of Canada also decides Wednesday and releases a fresh Monetary Policy Report. The consumer thread picks up Thursday with June Retail Sales and the NAHB Housing Market Index, and Friday delivers June Housing Starts, Industrial Production, and the preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment read for July. Regional Fed surveys from New York (Empire & Business Leaders), Philly, and Kansas City round out the activity read. Looking at the Coppock Daily Chart which illustrates the position of the 11 S&P 500 sectors and the S&P 500 itself along an idealised weekly Coppock Curve. The weekly Coppock indicator is a measure of medium-term (weeks to months) momentum. The “Accumulating” quadrant contains sectors with weak but improving momentum. Sector momentum in the “Rising” quadrant is both bullish and improving — this is the strongest quadrant. The “Distributing” quadrant contains sectors with momentum that can also be described as “overbought and deteriorating.” Finally, the “Falling” quadrant contains the weakest sectors — those with increasingly weak momentum underpinnings. Items of note include the S&P 500 being at the top of the Rising quadrant. At the same time, the Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, and Communication Services sectors are in the upper reaches of the Distributing quadrant. These are three of the four largest sectors that represent 68.8% of the S&P 500. As such, the “500” is susceptible to transitioning into the Distributing quadrant sooner rather than later (like this week or next). Energy entered the Falling quadrant only two weeks ago. This suggests further momentum pressures in the weeks ahead. Finally, the Utilities sector is now in the early phase of the Accumulating quadrant. This should bode well for the sector for much of the current quarter. We have hit the middle of July and it appears that the war with Iran is back on. One major worry is the fact that the U.S. Petroleum Strategic Reserve is now 19 million barrels away from estimated minimum operating levels. If this is not addressed there will no longer be a safety buffer to protect the world from further losses out of the Straight of Hormuz. However, my ‘Nothing Matters’ theme continues as the S&P closed less than 0.75% from all-time highs on Friday. Given this backdrop I will now look to sell rallies. On Friday I was lucky as after the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 7550 average short position the market quickly dropped to a low at 7534 enabling me to cover this position at my revised 7536 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7595/7620 where I will be a seller with a 7641 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a move lower 7405/7430 with the same tight 7389 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7562. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7463. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The boring sideways price action continues. I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. Today, I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1485 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar sold off to my 100.60 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 101.10 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 99.90 while leaving my 99.35 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 3020/3090 with the same 3155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2970.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. I will not chase the FTSE Market higher preferring to wait for a sell-off before initiating a new long position. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 10300/10380 with the same 10215 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10460. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small seller on any further rally to 52930/53230 with a 53505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52670. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX surged on Friday as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 28900/29100 with a higher 28695 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has short-term resistance from 30050/30250 where I will be a seller with a 20405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29330. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29870. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund from last week at an average price of 125.55. I will now lower my T/P level to 125.80 while leaving my 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My latest 4040 long Gold position worked well as shorty after I posted on Thursday Gold rallied to my 4115 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of Gold on any further dip lower to 3940/4040 with the same 3855 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4110.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market rallied to my 60.10 T/P level on my latest 58.50 long position. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to buy Silver again at a price of 59.00. As I wanted to be flat over the weekend, I exited this long position at my revised 59.70 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 55.60/58.60 with the same ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 60.40.
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