Greece finally got its PSI over the line with private investors agreeing to swap 85 per cent of her debt. Equity markets rallied strongly, along with Commodities and a weaker Dollar, in anticipation of a deal been agreed. The ECB and BOE kept rates unchanged, as expected, and ECB President Mario Draghi did not rule out another LTRO but creeping worries about inflation suggest more stimulus is not the ECB’s central forecast. Today we have Non Farm Payrolls out of the US at 1.30pm which are expected to be +210 thousand with an Unemployment Rate of 8.3%.
S&P 500
No change from yesterday as we are still in the 1350/1370 range as we wait today’s data. I have no position here and will trade the breakout.
EURO
The Euro hit my sell level yesterday and I have a small position with a 1.3280 closing stop.
Dax
The Dax traded into my sell level and then quickly fell 80 points after the US market opened. However the market rebounded just as quick and we are now back at the critical 6850 level. I have gone flat here and if we can close over 6850 it will be bullish for a move back to 7000. With so much Central Bank stimulus it is very hard to be short even though we have a very overbought market.
Crude
Crude gave me a chance to buy again at 106 and then traded back to 107.20. I am now flat and I will go long again on any move back to 105.80/106.10
Gold
No change from yesterdays comment
Bund
The Bund has rolled to the June contract with a discount of 172 points. I want to go short on any move to 138.90/139.20
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