The ECB tried but it was not enough for markets! President Dragi announced that the ECB may start buying short term Government Bonds to lower exceptionally high borrowing costs of Eurozone Economies and may also consider other non-standard measures to support the Eurozone Economy. But the lack of immediate action and the usual lack of detail has seen markets lower yesterday although the US did have a nice snap back in the last hour of trading. Markets were looking for more detail on the timing and size of the action/intervention in long term bonds and also if the purchases would be sterilised or if the ECB would print money. Dragi also failed to detail what non-standard measures the ECB was considering. The response of European markets was savage. Spanish 10 Year Yields rose 43 basis points back to 7.16% and the Spanish Equity Market fell nearly 300 points or 4%, Italian Yields rose 40 bps to 6.33% while German Bund Yields plunged to 1.23% from 1.4%. Next up, after all the action yesterday, is the Non Farm Payrolls in the US and the market is looking for 100K increase in July.
Sept S&P 500
The S&P worked really well yesterday, I had planned to be flat ahead of the ECB meeting and to buy in front of 1350 if we dropped that far after their announcements.Well the S&P dropped down to 1349.5 and I went long at 1351 and I have taken profit at 1361 and I am now flat. This is the third day in a row that we have a major event, with the US Payrolls for July due at 1.30 pm and again I want to be flat ahead of the news as this number can be so volatile. If we get a weak number I will be a small buyer from 1345/1349 with a 1339 stop. I do not want to be short as you are only fighting the action of the Central Banks and the Fed.
Sept BUND
The Bund worked really well as we dropped down to my 142.70/143.00 buy zone with a 142.86 low and then we rallied over 200 points from here. This is where it is important to have your order in the market and I went long at 142.95 and took profit to early at 144.10 and I am now flat. If the Bund continues to rise I will be a seller from 145.80/146.20 with a 146.30 which is just above the high made 2 weeks ago. I will also be a buyer on any dip to 144.00 with a 143.80 stop if I am taken long.
EURO/JPY
I was stopped out of my 9570 long at 9530 and I am now flat. I still believe in this trade and I will use any dip back to .9450/.9480 to go long again with a .9430 stop.
EURO/USD
The Euro had a wild day trading, up over 1.2400 before falling to 1.2150. I went long at 1.2195 and I am still long. I only have a small position and I will leave my stop at 1.2145. If we get a weak number today I will be quickly stopped out but I am prepared to keep this position as I have had a good week and it is only a small position.
Sept DAX
Like the Euro, the DAX had a wild day rising to 6860 before falling nearly 300 points. I am glad I have stayed away from the contract but again, if we get a weak number from the US later I want to be a buyer from 6470/6500 with a 6440 stop as I feel the ECB are not going to give up this fight easily.
Excellent analysis Bryan. Your clear commentary and accurate opinion levels are exactly what a new trader needs to build some confidence in the wild markets. 300+ points in my first week following your guidance and taking the trades I felt comfortable with. Thank you for the service and here’s to lots more of the same…
Many thanks David. That is is exactly what the service is for, to help traders build their confidence. Glad you had a good first week, here’s to many more indeed. Bryan