In one of the biggest shocks to hit markets in many years Britain has voted to leave the EU in yesterday’s Referendum. This ‘no vote’ saw Pound trade to its lowest level against the US Dollar since 1985. The biggest surprise in all of this was the fact that the initial ‘Exit Polls’ had the Remain at 54% and 52% before reality hit. Initially Cable (GBP/USD) traded over 1.50 before falling an incredible 1800 points to 1.32 on the confirmed ‘Brexit’ while the FTSE fell over 12% from its post exit poll rally.
To mark my 1100th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 610 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1760 points for June. The previous three months saw gains of 1532, 2175 and 2265 points respectively. Since I started this service over 12 months ago it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2200 points.
Given the unprecedented volatility I am going to leave my economic commentary on Britain’s exit until Monday as I want to get my buy/sell ranges on my nine markets out before we change again. As I go to press it has been announced that the G7 will hold a telephone conference at 12.00 pm and do not be surprised if we see some co-ordinated intervention to stop this route.
September S&P 500
After we got the first hint of a turnaround in the polls the S&P traded lower to my 2060 buy level before very quickly stopping me out of this trade at 2053. Subsequently the market traded as low as 2040 before mounting a huge rally to 2080 before the market got slammed and briefly traded below 2000. I emailed my Platinum Members that I had bought the S&P at 2019 which is where it was trading shortly after I emailed them. I am still long and I now have a 2007 stop on this position which I will raise to 2025 on a break of 2037. My own view is the market has over reacted to this sell-off as it will take at least 2 years for this process to happen plus I would not be surprised if the UK Government calls for a second vote. Given the extent of the sell-off I will wait until Monday before looking to pick levels to go short the S&P. If I manage to T/P on the S&P I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 2005/2015 with a 1998 wider stop.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked really well overnight as shortly after the Euro hit my average buy level at 1.1220 the market had a nice rally to 1.13 which enabled me to cover my long position at my 1.1280 T/P level. This morning’s huge sell-off on ‘Brexit’ is over done and I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Euro at 1.1050. I will now look to T/P on this position at 1.1180. If I manage to cover this position I will now look to re-buy the Euro on ay dip lower to 1.1060/1.1110 with a 1.1030 wider stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar traded through my sell level and stop on the open and as a result I am still flat. I am going to stay flat and concentrate on the EUR which is more liquid.
September DAX
Wow in all my tears of trading it is a long time since I saw the kind of volatility that we had in the DAX yesterday. Shortly after I posted the DAX traded higher to my 10275 sell level before after lunch having a nasty sell-off to 10120 which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 10200 T/P level. Subsequently as it became more apparent that the initially Britain was going to vote yes the DAX traded as high as 10400 into the close. All changed on the re-open this morning with the DAX trading over 1200 points lower. I emailed my Platinum Members to buy this market in small size at 9350 with a 9600 T/P level and this has not just been hit. I am now flat and I will use any further sell-off to 9360/9430 to buy the market again with a 9295 stop.
September FTSE
Thankfully we stayed flat the FTSE yesterday especially given its 12% fall from its overnight high to its early morning low. I am going to stay flat today as I want to see what PM Cameroon has to say in his press conference and to what exactly the G7 are going to implement after they have their telephone conference.
Dow Rolling Contract
After I bought and got stopped out of my S&P position I left the Dow alone and I am still flat. Today my only interest in buying the Dow is on a dip lower to 17350/17420 with a 17270 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow especially with the US Dollar starting to weaken again.
September BUND
My Bund plan worked well yesterday with the Bund trading lower to my average 163.65 buy level before having a nice rally which enabled me to cover this position at my 163.95 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Obviously the Bund has gapped miles higher on the ‘Brexit’ which sees the market trading above my sell level and stop. The Bund yield is again gone negative which is insane and today I will be a small seller on any further rally to 166.30/166.70 with a 167.10 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked really well as we got the expected rally off the 1250 initial test. After the initial exit poll showed Britain staying in the EU Gold traded lower to my 1252 buy level before having a rally over 1300 which enabled me to cover this position at 1270 and I am now flat. Given the volatility and the fact we made so many points in Gold overnight I am going to stay flat and see where Gold trades from here.
Silver Rolling Contract
Shortly after I posted Silver traded higher to my small T/P level at 17.50. Subsequently Silver traded lower to my second buy level at 17.10 and I have now covered this position at 17.75 this morning and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 17.00/17.40 with a 16.70 stop.
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