The ECB’s policy meeting has come and gone without any policy action, though none was expected. At 1.1025, the EUR/USD sits where it was late yesterday in the wake of some intra-session ECB Volatility. In his press conference, ECB President Dragi noted the post-‘’Brexit’’ uncertainty with general policy guidance, stressing a willingness and ability to act if needed. This was in response to a question, so can hardly be any surprise. He noted that markets had proved to be resilient in the wake of the Referendum
To mark my 1100th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 75 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1167 points for July having made 2550 points in June. The previous three months saw gains of 1532, 2175 and 2265 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2200 points.
As for the Euro-Zone economy, Dragi noted that data pointed to ongoing growth in Q2. He pointed out slightly improved bank loan dynamics with some signs of increased loan demand, the current phase of ECB TLTRO 11 contributing to better conditions. Inflation is expected to remain low before starting to pick up in 2017 as base effects drop out.
Sterling fell ¾ cent against the US Dollar after weaker than expected Retail Sales for June, but it has since clawed back much of that lost ground to be trading over 1.32 early this morning. I notice that sales in June followed an equally strong May and came with an extremely wet June, keeping shoppers away from the High Street.
US data was more than OK with Weekly Jobless Claims remaining low at 253K, the Philly Fed Survey for July pulling back from +4.9 to -2.7, while Existing Home Sales in June popped by 1.1% versus 0.9% expected. The Leading Index rose 0.3%, which was a little ahead of expectations. Apart from the Philly Fed there is nothing to get too excited about or concerned with those.
As the US reporting season rolls on, US equities have closed lower amid somewhat less encouraging earnings reports, Southwest Airlines shares closed lower and this weighed on airline stocks amid signs of fare weakness, and despite a pull-back in oil prices yesterday. Meanwhile Treasury Yields retreated, though more at the front end of the curve while Gold closed up $11.
The Japanese Yen strengthened yesterday in the wake of a BBC interview with the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda downplaying the prospect of ‘’helicopter money’’. It did retrace some of these gains late in Asia when it was revealed the interview was recorded in June but USD/JPY moved lower again yesterday closing under 106.
This morning on the economic front we have German and Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI and Services/Composite PMI at 8.30 am and 9.00 am respectively. This is followed at 9.05 am by the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. At 2.45 pm we have US Markit Manufacturing PMI. Finally at 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence.
September S&P 500
As expected the S&P finally sold off yesterday as indicated by the huge reading in the Daily Sentiment Index over the past week I am still flat the S&P which unfortunately just missed my 2174 sell level before trading to a low of 2153.25 before bouncing into the close. Apart from yesterday when we finally saw some two-way volatility in the S&P, this has been the quietest week for S&P trading all year. Today I will leave my buy level unchanged at 2139/2145 with the same 2133 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer in front of 2125 with a 2118 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 2166/2172 with a 2177 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro which again traded in a very narrow range despite the ECB announcement and Dragi press conference. This was the quietest reaction to the Euro since Dragi started having his press conferences. I am still convinced that as long as the Euro can hold its post-‘’Brexit’’ low at 1.0910 that it is only a matter of time before we break higher. Today I will now raise my buy level slightly to 1.0945/1.0975 with a 1.0895 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
My short 97.00 Dollar plan finally worked out with the market trading lower to my 96.80 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to go short again at 97.20 which the market obliged with a 97.31 high print. After the Dollar again sold off we were able to cover this position at my revised 97.00 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the Dollar on any rally higher to 97.30/97.60 with a 97.90 stop.
September DAX
Surprisingly the DAX was very resilient yesterday despite the sell-off in the US Indices. I am still flat the DAX and today I will now raise my buy level to 9980/10030 with a 9925 stop. The DAX has strong resistance from 10150/10190 and a break and close above here targets the 10250/10280 next resistance area. As mentioned over the past few days my only interest in selling the DAX is still on a rally higher to 10340/10390 with a 10440 stop.
September FTSE
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 6555/6585 with a 6520 stop. I will also leave my sell level unchanged at 6710/6740 with a 6775 stop, which unfortunately the market just missed with a 6689 high print, before following the US Markets lower.
Dow Rolling Contract
Unfortunately the Dow just missed my 18660 sell level with an 18624 high print before trading 150 points lower and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 18380/18440 with an 18330 stop which is just below the 18350 major support and of course the 2015 high. I will leave my sell level unchanged at 18660/18720 with an 18780 stop.
September BUND
I am glad I stayed flat the Bund which had a nice rally into the close having traded much lower post the ECB announcement of no change in policy. Today I will again be a small seller on any rally higher to 166.95/167.35 with a 167.65 tight stop. I will also look to buy the Bund on any dip lower to 165.50/165.80 with a 165.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has rallied as expected off the 1300/1310 now strong support. I am still flat Gold which missed my 1304 buy level with a 1310 low print after I posted early yesterday morning. Today I will raise my buy level to 1307/1315 with a 1299 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My long 19.40 Silver position finally worked out yesterday with Silver following Gold higher and this rally enabled me to cover this long position at my 19.75 T/P level and I am now flat. Yesterday’s 19.19 low print is just 2 cents below the 19.21 early July low and technically we could now have a new double bottom at this 19.20 area. As I want to give Silver an opportunity to rally off this support I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 19.30/19.70 with an 18.80 stop.
Recent Comments