Pro-Independence parties held off the challenge of Unionists in a tightly fought Catalan election yesterday, securing a majority in the regional parliament and delivering a stunning blow to Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy. The three separatist groups claimed 70 seats in the 135-strong assembly to restore a majority they lost in October, when Rajoy used Article 155 of the constitution to oust the rebel administration before it could put a declaration of independence into effect. Rajoy’s People’s Party took a hammering, losing eight of its 11 lawmakers as voters opposed secessionists shifted to Ciudadanos, who have been demanding harsher measures against its secessionist push.
To mark my 1500th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 33 points yesterday and is now ahead by 894 points for December, having made 823 points in November and 657 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points.
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Catalonia’s ousted separatist leader, Carles Puigdemont, has declared that the Spanish State has been defeated in yesterday’s snap election. Speaking in Brussels where he is in self-imposed exile, Mr Puigdemont hailed the result as a victory for the ‘’Catalan Republic’’. The EUR/USD sold off on the news to a 1.1819 low print before rallying back to 1.1860 price level subsequently.
Meanwhile voting continues in the US as the House of Representatives looks to extend temporary funding through to January 19. As I post this abbreviated commentary today it looks like this vote will pass.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which came in at 10.8 versus 10.7 expected. At 9.30 am we have UK GDP and this is followed at 1.30 pm by US Personal Income/Spending including the all-important PCE Deflator. Also at the same time we have Durable Goods Orders. This is followed at 3.00 pm by Existing Home Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Finally at 4.00 pm we have the Kansas City Manufacturing Activity Index.
March S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well yesterday with the market trading higher to my 2694 sell level with a 2696.25 high print before having a late 10 handle sell-off. As I wanted to be flat overnight I covered this position too early at my revised 2692.80 T/P level and I am now flat. With most markets closed until next Wednesday/Thursday coupled with the fact that most traders will not be at their desks, markets will be illiquid and this could lead to increased volatility over the coming days. The US Markets are closed on Monday but normal trading will resume on Tuesday. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a dip lower to 2648/2655 with the same 2643 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 2632/2639 with the same 2625 stop. As this is my last full commentary until next Thursday my only interest in selling the S&P is on a further rally to 2708/2720 with a 2726 stop. If any of my calls get hit next week I will be back with an updated email for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the Euro trading lower on the Catalan election result to my 1.1835 buy level with a 1.1819 low print before rallying. I used this rally to email my Platinum Members to exit any long position at or near my revised 1.1856 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro should come under pressure on the back of this result and today I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1760/1.1800 with a 1.1725 stop. Despite this election surprise I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 92.10/92.50 with the same 91.70 stop. Remember a break and close below 92.10 is a sell signal with a target level of 90.00/91.00.
March DAX
The DAX continues to trade below the key 13200 resistance level and I am still flat. Despite the fact that I am bearish of this market I certainly do not want to be short at this time especially as we are still in the Santa rallying timeframe. As my next commentary is not until next Thursday I will now lower my buy level to the 12810/12870 support area from where we bounced three weeks ago. If I am taken long I will have a stop at 12760 and a T/P level at 12920.
March FTSE
The renewed weakness in Sterling along with the Santa Rally finally happening saw the FTSE rally strongly yesterday with the March Contract currently trading just 30 points below its all-time high at 7580. Thankfully we had no sell levels yesterday as the market started this rally shortly after I posted yesterday morning. With the FTSE closed from today until next Wednesday I am going to stay flat and come back with a new ‘’call’’ on Thursday.
Dow Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a buyer of the Dow on any dip lower to 24550/24620 with the same 24490 stop. As we are so close to the 25000 round number resistance level I would not be surprised if the market has a run at this resistance level ahead of the New-Year. With this in mind I will now raise my sell level to 24995/25100 with a 25160 stop.
March NASDAQ
No change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 6370/6410 with a 6335 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time especially as I have higher sell levels in both the S&P and Dow as mentioned above.
March BUND
I am still flat the BUND as the market traded in a narrow range yesterday after this week’s aggressive sell-off. I am going to stay flat until I come back on Thursday especially with liquidity a problem over the coming holidays.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to struggle to break the key 1260/1270 resistance level and I am still flat. I am not going to chase this market higher and today as I am still long Silver I will now lower my Gold buy level slightly to 1240/1248 with a 1233 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver is also struggling to break its 16.20/16.30 resistance level as the market traded sideways yesterday. I am still long at 16.15 with the same 16.35 T/P level and I may lower this T/P level later today and go flat over the Holidays. If I do I will be back with an update for my Platinum Members. Meanwhile I will still look to buy the market on any dip lower to 15.80 with the same 15.55 stop.
Finally I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and be sure to take a restful break with friends and family over the coming days. My next Daily Commentary will be on Thursday December 28 2017.
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