The Commodity currencies have been the better performers over the past 24 hours on the back of a move up in world oil prices. WTI closed up 2.33% at $44.46 while Brent fared a little better, up 4.08% to $45.41. It was still a day of relatively contained currency moves among the majors with the Australian Dollar been a better performer as it rallied off the key 0.7300/0.7320 major support to a high of 0.7390 overnight. The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37. The AUD was helped by a rise in Iron ore and the overnight recovery in Gold which is now trading $17 higher off its $1256 mid-afternoon low at $1273. Both the NOK and the CAD gained ground on the back of the higher oil prices.
To mark my 1075th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2500 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 110 points yesterday and is now ahead by 417 points for May having made 2175 points in April. The previous two months saw the same gain of 2265 points in each month following a record 3365 point gain in January. Since I started this service last June it has made over 24,000 points.
As Euro-Zone Finance Ministers and the IMF assess Greece’s progress with fiscal reform to access more funds, German Finance Minister Schaeuble warned not to expect a debt haircut to be part of a Greece deal. Germany’s Industrial Production underwhelmed expectations as reported in yesterday’s Daily Commentary, and were not of market consequence in light of Monday’s much stronger Factory Orders and higher Exports in March which drove up the Trade surplus.
Speaking at an International Monetary Forum in Zurich, Ney York Fed President Bill Dudley spoke about the US Dollar and not directly about the economy and Monetary Policy. Even his comments on the US Dollar were more referencing that its reserve currency status can push its value out of line and that FX volatility might be reduced with more reserve currencies.
Meanwhile US data released yesterday was second tier, but the Wholesale Inventories/Sales Report did lead to a modest upward Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW estimate for Q2 from 1.7% to 2.2%. The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April and the JOLTs Job Openings Report for March reflected a still positive tone in the US Labour Market, with US Small Business reporting an increase in hiring plans and ‘position not able to fill’, but no change in actual planned compensation. These positive reports helped the Dow to a 222 point gain which closed 1.25% higher at 17928 and now well above its post NFP low print at 17540.
This morning on the economic front we have UK Industrial Production at 9.30 am. This is followed at 12.00 pm by US MBA Mortgage Applications and the EIA Energy Outlook at 3.30 pm. Finally at 7.00 pm we have the US Monthly Budget Statement.
Meanwhile this afternoon the UK Chancellor Osborne is being questioned on ‘Brexit’ by the UK Parliamentary Treasury Committee while the ECB’s Nowotny is speaking in Vienna.
June S&P 500
The S&P continued its now huge 50 Handle rally off its 2030 post NFP print last Friday as the theme of only trying to short US equity markets for a few hours prevails. Unfortunately the S&P just missed my 2057 buy level with a 2057.50 low print before trading higher to my 2079 sell level just before the close. Subsequently overnight the S&P traded lower to a 2073 low print. However as I did not want to be short overnight especially as we had a good trading day yesterday and I emailed my Platinum Members to cut this position at 2077.50 and I am still flat. The S&P has strong resistance at the 2080/2085 area and today I will again look to sell the market from 2084/2089 with a 2094 stop. Yesterday’s move higher has left a small ‘Open Gap’ from Monday’s Chicago close at 2054.50 to yesterday’s 2057.50 low print and I would expect this tiny gap to be filled at some stage on the next sell-off. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2059/2064 with a 2054 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to trade in a very narrow range and this narrow trading is depriving us any opportunity to make points. I am still flat the Euro which again missed my 1.1350 buy level with a 1.1357 low print before trading back to 1.14. Today I will move my buy level slightly higher to 1.1320/1.1355 with a 1.1285 stop. Despite the boring action I do not want to be short the market at this time.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar also just missed my 94.40 sell level with a 94.33 high print yesterday and I am still flat as the market continues to rally off last week’s 91.80 spike low. Today I will move my sell level slightly higher to 94.60/94.90 with a 95.20 stop. I will still be a buyer on any dip lower to 93.00/93.40 with a 92.65 stop.
June DAX
No change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 9890/9950 with a 9845 stop. Both the DAX and FTSE struggled yesterday despite the higher prices in both the Nikkei and the US Indices. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am stopped out of any long position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 9730/9790 with a 9680 stop.
June FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 6090 average buy level shortly after lunch before eventually having a small rally to 6135 which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 6120 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 6060/6090 with a 6025 stop. Despite the boring and weak price action I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
This morning the Dow is trading 90 points lower of last night’s 17928 close and I am still flat. If the Dow continues to sell-off I will look to buy the market from 17710/17770 with a 17650 stop. The price action since the Dow hit the bottom of both its Daily Bollinger Band and Williams Index last Thursday/Friday is still telling me not to be short the market at this time.
June BUND
The Bund continues to rally off its now key 163.50 pivot point. I am still flat the market and if the Bund continues to rally from here I will look to go short from 164.55/164.85 with a 165.20 stop. Given how much the Bund has rallied over the past few trading sessions I do not want to be long the market at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 1257 buy level shortly after lunch before having a huge move overnight to 1274. As I was already long Silver I cut my long Gold position at my revised 1261 T/P level and I am now flat. I still do not trust Gold at these lofty levels and today my only interest in buying the market is on a dip lower to 1256/1263 with a 1249 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My long 17.00 Silver position finally worked out overnight as the market traded higher to 17.35 and this move higher enabled me to cover my long position at my 17.25 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 16.70/17.10 with a 16.35 stop.
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