U.S. Equity Markets finished last week in the red, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed lower by 0.75%. President-elect Joe Biden introduced the first part of his economic stimulus plan on Thursday night. The price tagged was $1.9 trillion, and it checked all of the boxes regarding expectations. However, while this has been a catalyst for the market rally, it was time for a reality check. Even with Democratic control of the Senate, they will still need Republican help to pass the measure. That may prove more difficult than desired, dragging out the timeline. In addition, the large cap financials kicked off earnings season. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reported. While numbers were good, the stocks had run higher in anticipation. Given the long weekend, it was cause for traders to lock in short-term profits and sell. After a positive week, reality hit on Friday with most European Indices closing lower by 1.2%. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was said to be weighing more stringent lockdown measures. The country has already been one of the most aggressive in the region in implementing social-distancing restrictions. The government is concerned a more contagious coronavirus strain could increase infections. This also comes on the heels of reports Merkel does not think more vaccine supply can be secured before July. In addition, the French government also struck a cautious tone. Prime Minister Jean Castex said it will take some time before COVID-19 vaccinations provide sufficient protection for the general public. This highlighted the need for patience while simultaneously adding to anxieties that the timing may not play out as quickly as some investors had hoped. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.69% lower on concerns that rising coronavirus restrictions in China and Germany will sap demand for gasoline, while Bitcoin fell 7.77% following reports roughly 850,000 bitcoins previously lost by shuttered Japanese exchange Mt. Gox have been recovered.
To mark my 2225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points on Friday and is now ahead by 931 points for January, having finished December with a gain of 2273 points, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.72% lower at a price of 3768.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 177 points lower for a 0.57% loss at a price of 30,814.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.75% lower at a price of 12803.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
Last Friday the Nikkei is closed 0.62% lower at a price of 28,519.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.2080.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at $1.3580.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% lower at 103.86 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.57%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.29%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.08%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.62% lower at $51.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.37% lower at $1,825.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we the Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am and this is followed by the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. There will no US data as the Cash Bond and Equity Markets are closed today for the Martin Luther King Bank Holiday.
March S&P 500
After the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 3759 average long position, we made a subsequent low at 3741.50. I emailed my Platinum Members when were trading at 3750 to say that I was still long with a now lower 3765 T/P level. Subsequently the S&P traded to a rebound high at 3771 before getting slammed into the close and I am still flat. As I go to press the S&P is trading lower at 3752. The S&P has strong support from 3717/3732 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 3699 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3744.
EUR/USD
Late Friday the Euro traded lower to my 1.2085 buy level. I am still long and today I will add to this trade at 1.2035 while leaving my stop unchanged at 1.1935. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.2105 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 90.00/90.45 with a higher 89.65 stop.
March DAX
After the DAX traded the whole of my buy range for a 13775 average long position I was stopped out of this trade at 13685. I should have left a ‘’Closing Stop’’ as the market rebounded to a high 13800 before having a small sell-off into the close. The DAX has key support from 13520/13610 and I will be an aggressive buyer in this area with a 13435 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March FTSE
After the FTSE traded the whole of my aggressive buy range for a 6650 average long position I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at my revised 6675 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 6570/6620 with a 6525 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 30690 buy level before turning around and rallying 250 points. I covered this latest long position at my revised 30770 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has strong support from 30380/30580 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a 30250 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March NASDAQ
The NASDAQ led the US Indices lower on Friday. After the market hit my 12790 buy level we traded to a low of 12745 before we bounced to a rebound high at 12860. I used this mover higher to exit my long position at 12810 and I am still flat. The close below 12775 is short-term bearish, opening up the possibility of a further move lower to my next buy level from 12380/12480, where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 12295 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March BUND
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 176.90/177.30 with a higher 176.45 stop. Meanwhile, my only interest in selling the Bund is still on a further rally to 178.40/178.90 with the same 179.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold sold off on Friday to end the week just above the key 1810 support level with a 1825 closing print. This morning Gold has sold off further, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 1807 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1817 while leaving my stop unchanged at 1789.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 24.60 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level to 24.90. I will now raise my stop on this position to 23.95.
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