U.S Indices got October off to a positive start as traders wait for an announcement on progress with the Stimulus Bill. The NASDAQ led the market with a gain of over 1% while the Dow struggled after the Federal Reserve said it would maintain the current limit on big banks’ dividends and keep their share buybacks on hold until at least next year. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the White House offered a stimulus deal worth $1.62 trillion versus the GOP’s prior offer for $1.5 trillion. Mnuchin also said the two sides have agreed on direct payments to Americans. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly told colleagues that she’s pessimistic on a deal before the election. In terms of economic data, Jobless Claims fell from the week prior and beat estimates. And Continuing Claims, a measure of those that have filed for unemployment for at least two weeks, fell sharply from the week before. This follows up Wednesday’s ADP Employment Survey, and indicates a continued recovery in the job market. Manufacturing data was mixed, as the ISM Manufacturing Survey missed estimates but final Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI came in above estimates. European Markets gained as European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said it can still introduce new stimulus measures. Final Euro-Zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data for September were unchanged from the initial reading, staying at its highest level in more than two years. Spain’s government said it would impose new restrictions on residents of Madrid, prohibiting them from leaving the city unless necessary, to try and contain the recent Coronavirus resurgence. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.87% fell as OPEC’s output rose in September, raising concerns of oversupply while Gold closed 0.83% higher on the possibility of more stimulus from the European Central Bank. Overnight, U.S S&P Futures Markets have plunged on news that US president Trump and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive for Covid-19, the president said in a tweet early on Friday morning. The news came after it was announced on Thursday that senior Trump aide Hope Hicks had tested positive. Mr Trump tweeted: “Tonight, FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!” The development comes a month before the US election on November 3rd. Mr Trump is now expected to be in quarantine for some two weeks while facing treatment for the disease.
To mark my 2150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 86 points yesterday on the first trading session for October, having made 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.53% higher at a price of 3380.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points higher for a 0.12% gain at a price of 27,816.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.45% higher at a price of 11,583.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.75% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.67% lower at a price of 23,030.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed flat at $1.1741.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at $1.2887.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 105.51 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed one basis point lower at 0.68%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis point lower at -0.54%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 0.27%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index closed 0.2% lower.
West Texas Intermediate closed 3.73% lower at $38.65 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% higher at $1905 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and this is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Non-Farm Payrolls, including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. Next, at 2.45 pm we have ISM New York. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Factory Orders.
December S&P 500
The S&P just missed my 3393 sell level before falling on negative Stimulus headlines. There is no doubt that with the US Elections in one month that we will have a Stimulus Bill agreed. How much of this Stimulus is priced in is the key for the next major move in the S&P. One clue is the VIX which is struggling to fall despite the surge in the US Indices since last week. The overnight news that President Trump has tested positive for Coronavirus has roiled markets further, sending the S&P to a low at 3300. This down move saw my 3330 buy level in the S&P being hit before stopping out of this position at 3309. Ahead of the NFP this afternoon I expect that some of this S&P sell-off to be reversed especially given the large ‘’Open Gap’’ from last night Chicago close at 3360. I have bought the S&P here again at 3310 and I will add to this position at 3295 with a 3283 closing stop. My T/P level is 3330 as I try to recover the points lost overnight. Meanwhile I will lower my S&P sell level to 3382/3397 with a 3411 closing stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as I continue to be an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 1.1620/1.1680 with the same 1.1575 stop. I will now raise my sell level to 1.1805/1.1845 with a higher 1.1885 stop.
December Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 93.60 buy level before rallying to my revised 93.88 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dollar has lower support from 93.00/93.40 where I will be a buyer with a 92.55 stop.
December DAX
My DAX plan worked well as shortly after I posted the DAX traded lower to my 12700 buy level before rallying to my 12760 T/P level and I am now flat. The rally in the Euro has stalled the DAX rally. However as long as the DAX can hold the 12400 support level I will continue to be a buyer on dips. Today, my buy level will be from 12440/12520 with a 12375 tight stop.
December FTSE
After the FTSE traded lower to my 5820 buy level we saw a small rally which allowed me to cover this position at my 5843 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has lower support from 5720/5770 where I will be a buyer with a 5685 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow missed my initial 28100 sell level by 21 points before falling 900 and I am still flat. Ahead of the NFP I will now lower my Dow sell level to 27900/28100 with a 28250 stop. The Dow has short-term support from 27100/27300 where I will be a small buyer with a 26975 stop.
December NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 11565 sell level before selling off to my 11495 T/P level. Overnight the NASDAQ sold off on the after news of President Trump positive test with the market hitting my 11320 buy level before rallying to my revised 11390 T/P level and I am now flat.. Selling rallies continues to pay dividends and today my sell level will be from 11550/11630 with a tight 11725 stop. The NASDAQ has short-term support from 11180/11280 where I will be a buyer with a 11095 stop.
December BUND
Late yesterday the Bund rallied to my 174.60 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this position at 175.10 with a now 175.45 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 174.25 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold which traded in a narrow range yesterday. I will leave my 1854/1866 buy level unchanged with the same 1842 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 23.30 long position worked well with the market trading higher to my 23.75 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver continues to underperform Gold and today my buy level will be from 23.10/23.60 with a 22.55 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.05.
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