Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached another new intraday and closing high, following more signs the U.S Economy could be rebounding faster than anticipated. U.S. Durable-Goods Orders for July were much stronger than expected. The 11.2% gain more than doubled the 4.8% expectation. In addition, earnings from Salesforce.com boosted the outlook for technology stocks. The company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue while raising its outlook for the year. This rallied the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Index given their relative exposure to space. The S&P ended yesterday with a gain of 1% while the NASDAQ 100 surged over 2% to close near 12,000. The NASDAQ has now rallied 78% off its March low of 6700. European Indices gained after the German government agreed to extend Coronavirus-related economic benefits for individuals and businesses. In addition, French Prime Minister Jean Castex said the government will release the full details of its planned $118 billion stimulus package next Thursday. This boosted the regional growth outlook. Elsewhere Oil closed at a new post pandemic high after Hurricane Laura made landfall this morning in Southwest Louisiana as a category 4. It is one of the strongest storms ever to hit the State and its 150 MPH winds will cause widespread damage.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 165 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1926 points for August having ended July with a gain of 3128 points, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.02% higher at a price of 3478, another new all-time high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83 points for a 0.30% gain to close at 28,331.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 2.13%, closing at a new all-time high at 11,971.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
The Nikkei closed 0.35% lower at 23,208 this morning.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index again closed flat.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1820.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at $1.3195.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% lower at 106.02 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed two basis points lower at 0.68%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield also closed three basis points higher at 0.30%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.6%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 0.3% higher at $43.10 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% higher at $1,938.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and PCE. At 2.10 pm we have the Kansas City virtual speech from Fed Chairman Powell. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.
September S&P 500
This afternoon and tomorrow, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will host its 44th annual Economic Policy Symposium. This event is typically held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and attended by the top international policy makers. Owing to the Coronavirus pandemic, the event will be online. The key speaker will be Powell. He is expected to offer guidance on the direction interest rates are headed. Investors expect he will discuss the need for inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2% target for a sustainable period of time before it raises rates again. That means easy-money policy will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Until inflation can remain above 2% on a sustainable basis, Fed policy must remain easy. Because without inflation, tightening policy does not make sense. Powell is going to say the Fed will do all it can to get growth and inflation back on track. That means cheap rates and flooding the system with liquidity. The only downside to this is the bubble been created in the US Equity Markets with valuations in the five main stocks at nose-bleed levels. Ahead of this afternoon’s speech the S&P made another new high trading whole of my sell range for a 3463 short position before stopping me out of this trade late in the day at 3481 and I am now flat. I will now raise my buy level to 3430/3445 with a higher 3417 stop. The S&P is severely overbought with the RSI close to 80. Incredibly the VIX closed 5.25% higher despite the 1% gain in the S&P and 2% surge in the NASDAQ while internally the market stinks with the McClellan Oscillator closing lower at -111. This relentless move higher sees Short-Interest at 15-year lows with August only having one down day so far on the 11th. The S&P has further resistance from 3490/3505 where I will again be a small seller with a 3517 stop.
EUR/USD
The boring sideways action in the Euro and Dollar shows no sign of ending and I am still flat. We may see a pick-up in volatility this afternoon. Today I will continue to be a seller from 1.1875/1.1915 with the same 1.1955 stop. I am not going to chase the Euro higher and I will leave my 1.1700/1.1750 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1655 stop.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 92.30/92.70 with the same 91.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 93.05.
September DAX
Late yesterday the DAX traded into my sell range and I am now short in small size at 13210. I will add to this position at 13300 with a higher 13365 stop. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 13145 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September FTSE
It shows how weak the FTSE is, as the market cannot rally despite new all-time in the S&P and NASDAQ. I am still long at 6055 with the same 5985 stop and T/P level at 6071.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market struggles to match the rallies in other main US Indices. The Dow has strong support from 27950/28150 where I will be a buyer with a 27795 stop. As I am short the NASDAQ and DAX, I do not want to be short the Dow ahead of Powell’s speech this afternoon.
September NASDAQ
The relentless move higher in the NASDAQ shows no sign of ending as the market makes one new all-time higher almost every day. Yesterday it was the turn of Facebook and Netflix to drag the market higher with both closing higher by 6% and 7% respectively. I am now short the NASDAQ at an average rate of 11825 and I will raise my stop on this position to 12065. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 11790 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
It took a while but finally the Bund traded higher to my 176.05 T/P level on my 175.90 average long position and I am now flat. The Bund has short-term support from 175.35/175.80 where I will again be a buyer with a 174.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Gold just missed my 1898 buy level with a 1901 low print before rallying $40 and I am still flat. Precious metals have spent most of August pulling back from their recent all-time highs on low volume which is positive going forward. I will now raise my buy level to 1895/1910 with a 1883 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver rallied hard yesterday. I will now raise my buy level to 26.10/26.70 with a higher 25.45 stop.
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