Better than expected earnings from JP Morgan helped the Dow to rally and finally close above its 200 Day Moving Average in what turned out to be an extremely choppy trading session. CEO Jamie Diamond said that the bank ended the Quarter with significant earnings power. JPM reported Q2 revenue of $33.8 billion, up $4.3 billion year-on-year, while smashing expectations of $30.3 billion expected as a result of trading and IBanking Revenue. Positive comments on spending also boosted the Dow late on with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying she was in favour of delaying Congress’s August recess in order to push through another stimulus package. The Dow closed 2.14% higher. Optimism also grew over Coronavirus vaccines with Moderna filing to start the Phase 111 trial for COVID-19 Vaccine later this month. The S&P closed the day with a gain of 1.3% after swinging for most of the session between gains and losses before a late surge into the close. Elsewhere, the UK’S 2-year bonds yielded less than Japanese debt for the first time. Treasuries and the US Dollar ended flat while Crude closed 0.45% higher after OPEC published a record jump in crude demand in 2021.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 309 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2147 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 Index closed 1.3% higher at a price of 3197.
The Dow Jones rose 556 points for a 2.13% gain to close at 26,642.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.82% higher at 10689, having hit an intra-day low of 10370.
The MSCI World Index closed 0.5% higher at 543.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.59% higher at 22945.
Currencies
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2% to 1207.
The Euro rose 0.4% to $1.1391.
The British Pound rose 0.2% to $1.2587.
The Japanese Yen was little changed at 107.28 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed unchanged at 0.62%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.45%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 0.15%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 0.4% to $40.27 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.4% to $1,810.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK June CPI which rose 0.6% versus +0.4% expected. At 12.00 pm we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications and this is followed at 1.30 pm by New York State Empire Manufacturing Index and the Import/Export Price Index. Next, we have Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have the Bank of Canada Rate Decision at 3.00 pm and the Fed’s Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
September S&P 500
Yet again any time we see the start of a meaningful correction in the S&P it is met with strong buying as the key 3110 again held support with yesterday’s 3119 low print. Hopes that we will have a vaccine sooner rather than later saw the S&P trade to an overnight high so far at 3215 as Monday’s aggressive late sell-off was almost completely reversed over the past 24 hours. My S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 3136 average long position before the market rallied to my 3152 T/P level. Shortly before the close the S&P hit my 3190 sell level. As I wanted to be flat overnight I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at my revised 3184 T/P level. Remember the S&P has a massive ‘’Open Gap’’ from February at 3258/3330 and there is every possibility that this Gap will be filled before we see a more meaningful sell-off. Today, I will be a buyer from 3163/3178 with a 3149 stop. The S&P has strong resistance from 3232/3248 where I will be a seller with a 3261 stop.
EUR/USD
Overnight the Euro traded higher to my 1.1410 sell level before having a small sell-off to my revised 1.1398 T/P level and I am still flat. The Euro is up against strong resistance and a break and close over 1.15 will see much higher prices. Today I will be a small seller from 1.1450/1.1510 with a 1.1545 tight stop. I will again raise my buy level to 1.1300/1.1340 with a 1.1255 stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar just missed my 96.80 sell level with a 96.65 high print before selling off to trade at 96.10 this morning. I will now lower my sell level to 96.50/96.90 with a lower 97.35 stop.
September DAX
Frustratingly the DAX missed my 12510 buy level with a 12514 low print before surging to trade at 12800 this morning. Just like the US Indices, the DAX is a buy on dips given the unprecedented Euro 130 billion German Stimulus. This view will hold as long as we do not break and close below 12300. Today I will raise my buy level to 12520/12650 with a higher 12455 stop.
September FTSE
Shortly after I posted the FTSE traded higher to my 6105 T/P level on my 6070 latest long position and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading slightly higher at 6200 as the market continues to underperform both the European and US Indices. The FTSE has support from 6090/6140 where I will be a buyer with a 6045 stop which is just below yesterday’s low print. With the FTSE still 17% lower on the year I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Better earnings from JP Morgan helped the Dow to completely reverse Monday’s late sell-off with a near 600 point rally. Unfortunately, the Dow just missed my initial 25950 buy level by 40 points before turning around and I am still flat as thankfully we have no sell level in this market yesterday. Hopes of a successful vaccine has the Dow trading at 26900 this morning as the 200 Day Moving Average is finally broken and key level (26225) will provide strong support on any test. I will now raise my buy level to 26350/26600 with a wider 26195 stop. The Dow has strong resistance from 27300/27550 where I will be a seller with a 27725 stop.
September NASDAQ
My NASDAQ pan worked well with the market trading lower to my 10440 buy level before rallying to my revised 10510 T/P level with a high overnight so far at 10735 and I am still flat. I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 10810/10910 with the same 11005 stop. The NASDAQ has initial support from 10425/10550 where I will be a strong buyer with a 10310 stop.
September BUND
No Change as I am still a small seller on any rally higher to 176.70/177.10 with a 177.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite the weaker Dollar, Gold is struggling to rally which is no surprise given the extreme sentiment towards the precious metal. Gold has strong resistance from 1825/1837 where I will be a seller with a 1849 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will again raise my buy level to 18.40/18.80 with a higher 17.95 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 19.10.
Recent Comments