European and U.S Indices extended their overnight gains on the hope that a proper vaccine will be in place by the end of this year and distributable on a mass scale in early 2021. Vaccine approval would be great for global equity markets as individuals everywhere would like to return to their pre-COVID-19 routines. A vaccine would go along way to allow this to happen. European Indices ended Monday with solid gains of +1.5%, about 0.5% off their earlier highs. However the U.S Indices turned negative in the last hour of trading in what turned out to be a dramatic session for the NASDAQ 100, which earlier made a new all-time high at 11070 before falling 550 points into the close for a significant Downside Key Day Reversal, closing at 10606. The sell-off happened on the news that California would close all operations for bars, including takeout. The State also closed operations for Gyms, Cinemas and Museums. This announcement is sparking more fears of wider shutdowns across America which could hamper economic recovery. The NASDAQ ended the day lower by 2.16%. Elsewhere, both Gold and the Dollar closed lower whole Oil fell 2.10% on reports that OPEC was considering increasing production.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 310 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1840 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index closed 0.94% lower at a price of 3155.
The Dow Jones closed flat at 26,085.
The NASDAQ 100 fell 2.16%, closing at 10602.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.2%.
The MSCI World Index fell 0.4% to 540.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.87% lower at 22587.
Currencies
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% to 1210.
The Euro rose 0.4% to $1.1350.
The British Pound fell 0.7% to $1.2560.
The Japanese Yen weakened 0.3% to 107.24 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell two basis points to 0.62%.
Germany’s 10-year yield gained five basis points to -0.42%.
Britain’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to 0.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $39.69 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.2% to $1,795.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK GDP for May which rose 1.8% versus +5.5% expected. The UK Trade Balance was also released coming in at -£2.8 billion versus -£8.2 billion expected. In Germany the June Final CPI was released coming in as expected with a rise of 0.9%. At 10.00 am we have German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. Euro-Zone Industrial Production will be released at the same time. Next, we have the U.S NFIB Business Optimism Index at 12.00 pm and CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Brainard at 7.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The Cash S&P made a new recovery high at 3235 yesterday afternoon, three Handles above its 3232, high recorded on June 8, before selling off 80 Handles into the close, following the Downside Key Day Reversal in the NASDAQ. The refusal of the VIX to move lower over the past week was a hint to lower prices. The VIX closed 18% higher last night at a price of 32.19 and is now above both its 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages. This move higher saw the S&P hit my 3220 sell level in the September Contract before selling off to my revised 3213 T/P level. Subsequently the S&P traded lower to my revised 3148 buy level before rallying after the close to my 3156 T/P level and I am still flat. Despite yesterday’s aggressive reversal I am still bullish the S&P as long as we do not close below 3110. Today I will be a buyer from 3128/3145 with a wider 3109 stop. The S&P has resistance from 3190/3205 where I will be a small seller with a 3217 stop.
EUR/USD
Having traded with a 1.12 Handle for most of the past six weeks, the Euro rose to close at 1.1350 last night. The Euro has strong resistance from 1.1410/1.1450 where I will be a seller with a 1.1495 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1260/1.1.1300 with a higher 1.1225 stop.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar traded in a narrow range since I posted 24 hours ago. I will continue to be a seller from 96.80/97.25 with the same 97.60 stop.
September DAX
The huge rally in the DAX since Friday did not last long with the DAX falling 300 points to my 12625 buy level shortly before the New York close. As I wanted to be flat overnight , I covered this position for a breakeven. This morning the DAX is trading at the same 12625. We have short-term support from 12410/12510 where I will again look to buy the market with a 12345 stop.
September FTSE
Overnight, the FTSE traded lower to my 6070 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 6105. I will now raise my stop on this position to 6015. If I mange to exit at my 6105 T/P level I will again look to buy the FTSE on any further dip lower to 5990/6050 with a 5945 stop. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 6090.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made an afternoon high at 26639 before falling almost 600 points into the close to my 26050 buy level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 26140 and I am now flat. Yet again the Dow was unable to close above its 200 Day Moving Average which comes in at 26225 this morning. As long as the Dow holds the key 25500 support area I will continue to be a buyer on dips. Remember the Fed are not going away and will continue to support the market. Today I will be a buyer from 25700/25950 with a 25495 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time especially ahead of the key Bank Earnings today including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
September NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my second sell level at 11000 for a 10950 average short position. Unfortunately, I covered this position too early at 10880 and I am still flat. Subsequently the market fell a further 300 points into the close which was no surprise given the fact that the Daily Sentiment Index closed at 93% bulls last Friday. Yesterday was a significant Downside Key Day Reversal but as we have seen over the past few months these reversals tend not to last long before the market trades higher. The NASDAQ has strong support from 10350/10450 where I will be a buyer with a 10265 stop. My only interest in selling the market is on a further rally to 10810/10910 with a 11005 stop.
September BUND
I am still flat and today I will lower my sell level to 176.50/176.90 with a lower 177.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a seller from 1820/1832 with a 1841 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 18.25/18.65 with the same 17.75 stop.
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