US Indices closed the week on a high helped by optimism over Coronavirus treatments and vaccines. German BioNTech said its Coronavirus vaccine being developed with Pfizer should be ready for approval in December with over 1 billion doses by end of 2021. In addition, Gilead Sciences published the latest data on its Remdesivir Coronavirus treatment. Gilead said the Phase 111 data for the treatment showed an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62% reduction in the risk of Coronavirus mortality. Meanwhile cases continued to rise with Florida reporting over 15,000 new cases yesterday, as Nevada brought back some restrictions to slow the spread of the virus. The Dow ended Friday with a gain of 1.43%. Banks led the S&P higher as the gauge extended its Weekly gain to over 1.8%. German Chancellor sounded optimistic on the potential for the European Union’s Leaders to agree on the Euro 750 billion package when they meet this week for the first time since the pandemic started. Elsewhere, Chinese State-owned Pension Funds announced plans to trim their stock holdings, raising concerns that the Government may have lost faith in the market. Crude closed back above $40 with a 2.2% gain after the IEA boosted its demand outlook for the third consecutive month. Despite fears of a second wave, Asian stock markets soared overnight ahead of the Earnings Season that will provide more clues as how companies are coping with CODID-19. This morning the S&P Futures are back above 3200, reversing the rare ‘’Island Reversal’’ from last month.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 10 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1530 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index rose 1% to close a price of 3185.
The Dow Jones rose 370 points for a 1.43% gain to close at 26,075.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 0.75%, closing at yet another all-time high at 10,836.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.9%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 1.1%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 0.9%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 2.2% higher at 22,784.
Currencies
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
The Euro rose 0.1% to $1.1301.
The British Pound rose 0.2% to $1.2629.
The Japanese Yen strengthened 0.3% to 106.93 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 0.64%.
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.15%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $40.53 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.2% to $1,799.72 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Wholesale Prices for June which came in higher than expected at +0.6%. The only other data of note on either size of the Atlantic is the U.S Monthly Budget Statement at 7.00 pm.
Meanwhile the Fed’s Williams and the Bank of England’s Governor Bailey both speak at 4.30 pm.
September S&P 500
I keep emphasising the importance of my updated emails especially in these volatile markets. On Friday after the S&P just missed my 3150 sell level with a 3149.25 high print before the market fell over 20 Handles. Subsequently we turned quickly and I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their sell level to 3164. This sell level was hit late in the day as I was wanted to flat over the weekend, I covered this position at my revised 3161 T/P level and I am still flat. Overnight we traded above 3200, thus negating last month’s rare ‘’Island Reversal’’. The S&P has now rallied 200 Handles since its 2995 low two weeks ago. The more the S&P rallies the more nervous investors become. This rally is being fought with headwinds as the media is fuelling the frenzy to get more viewers. However, there are plenty of positive signs. The White House is saying an economic shutdown will not happen again. The heads of the National Health and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases are optimistic we will have a safe and effective vaccine with hundreds of millions of doses ready by late this year or early 2021. Finally, the Fed says it has the economy’s back after five stimulus packages and will do more if necessary. This move higher is hard to get your head around especially when we have over 40 million people unemployed in the U.S. I will now raise my buy level to 3148/3163 with a 3135 stop. The S&P has strong resistance from 3218/3233 where I will be a seller with a 3245 stop.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.1270 long Euro position worked well. I covered this position at my revised 1.1295 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the Euro is trading higher at 1.1330. We have resistance from 1.1410/1.1450 where I will be a seller with a 1.1495 stop. I will continue to buy the Euro on dips and today my buy level will be from 1.1250/1.1290 with a 1.1215 stop.
September Dollar Index
My latest 96.90 short Dollar position worked well with the market trading lower at 96.40 this morning. As I wanted to be flat over the weekend, I covered this position at my revised 96.65 T/P level. With the Dollar continuing to find strong resistance at both the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages, the trend is for a lower Dollar. Today, I will be a seller from 96.75/97.25 with a 97.60 stop.
September DAX
Thankfully we had no sell levels in the DAX over the past few days with the DAX trading 400 points higher from where I marked prices on Friday morning at 12825. There is no doubt that due to the unprecedented stimulus package from the German Government any dip in the DAX will be met by strong buying. Today I will move my buy level higher to 12510/12640 with a higher 12435 stop.
September FTSE
The FTSE never came close to my 5930 buy level before surging to trade at 6130 this morning. Despite this 200 point rally, the FTSE continues to underperform the other main Indices. The FTSE has strong resistance from 6190/6240 where I will be a seller with a 6285 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 6030/6080 with a 5975 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Incredibly the Dow is now trading over 900 points higher from where I marked prices on Friday. Unfortunately, the Dow just missed my 25300 buy level before this aggressive rally started. After the Dow just missed my initial 25850 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their sell level to 26000 which was later filled. Again, as I did not want to have a short position over the weekend, I covered this position at my revised 25975 T/P level and I am still flat. Ahead of the Cash Dow opening at 2.30 pm, the market is trading above the 200 Day MA (26229). This MA is significant as we have not closed above the 200 DAY MA in over a month. On top of this the technical picture is much weaker than the S&P as we need to break back above 27500 to negate last month’s massive ‘’Island Reversal’’. With bank earnings starting this week, this will be a key period for the Dow and its direction over the next month. I will now raise my buy level to 25930/26080 with a higher 25795 stop. Despite the Dow at near-term resistance levels, I do not want to be short the market at this time.
September NASDAQ
Unfortunately, I did not change my sell level in the NASDAQ on Friday and I have paid the price for this. The NASDAQ traded the whole of my sell range for a 10810 average short position before stopping me out of this position earlier this morning at 10905. The NASDAQ has now closed higher for 9 of the past 10 trading sessions. The market is severely overbought and I have gone short again here this morning at 10900. The NASDAQ has further resistance at 11000 where I will add to this position with a wider 11105 stop. My T/P level on this position is at 10780 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
The BUND just missed my 177.05 sell level and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 176.80/177.30 with a 177.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my sell level to 1822/1834 with a higher 1843 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 18.25/18.65 with a higher 17.75 stop.
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