The diverse U.S Equity Market got even more fractured yesterday with the NASDAQ closing 0.8% higher at 10,755, which is another new all-time closing high. On the other Hand, the Dow fell 360 points, to close 1.38% lower at 25,706. The NASDAQ Market has now closed higher for the seventh day out of the last eight. While the Weekly Jobless Claims fell by the most in a month, they are still double the highest level from the last recession. The spike higher in COVID-19 in both Texas and Florida is not going to help the situation going forward. To add to the gloom, Wells Fargo announced that it will cutting thousands of jobs by the end of the year while United Airlines notified half its workforce (36,000 people) that their jobs were at risk after the Federal Aid expires at the end of September. Meanwhile Dr Anthony Fauci said that any State having a ‘’serious problem’’ with Coronavirus cases should consider shutting down again. This has raised fears that the economic rebound could take a hit and was not helped by the report of 60,000 new cases in the US yesterday, which was a new daily record. The Euro declined after reports that the Netherlands is holding up the EU’s Euro 750 billion rescue fund. Elsewhere, Oil closed 3.5% lower on growth worries while Gold fell 0.64% on Dollar strength and U.S Treasuries soared.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 265 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1520 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.6%, closing at a price of 3152.
The Dow Jones Industrial fell 360 points to close at 25706.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 0.8%, closing at a new all-time high at 10,755
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.8%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index added 0.8%.
This morning the Nikkei closed lower by 1.06% at 22,290.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
The Euro fell 0.4% to $1.1288.
The British Pound was little changed at $1.261.
The Japanese Yen was little changed at 107.22 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries decreased six basis points to 0.61%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield sank two basis points to 0.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude decreased 3.5% to $39.47 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.3% to $1,803.25 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S Producer Prices.
September S&P 500
Incredible two-way volatility in the S&P yesterday with the S&P torn between the weak Dow and the exceptionally strong NASDAQ. I keep emphasising the importance of my Platinum Service as I ended up sending 5 updated emails yesterday. After the S&P hit my 3145 buy level I covered this position at my revised 3151 T/P level before the market traded lower to my second buy level at 3112 per my updated email. Subsequently the S&P rose from its 3105 low to an overnight high at 3153.50. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my 3123 T/P level and I am now flat. Equity Markets are weak this morning on more COVID-19 worries with Hing Kong now closing their schools again, The 3090 area is key support for the S&P and today I will be a small buyer from 3083/3098 with a 3071 stop. As usual, I will where possible, have no Equity position over the weekend. I will now lower my sell level to 3150/3165 with a 3178 stop.
EUR/USD
This morning the Euro is trading in my buy range from yesterday. I have gone long in small size at 1.1270 and I will add to this position at 1.1220 with a now lower 1.1175 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1305 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my sell level yesterday and I am now short at 96.90 with the same 97.45 stop. Ahead of the weekend I will raise my T/P level to 96.55.
September DAX
The DAX followed the US Indices lower, hitting my 12480 buy level before bouncing 120 points off its 12450 low print. As I had so many open positions at the time I covered my long DAX position too early at 12505 and I am still flat. This morning the DAX is opening lower at 12420. As I have mentioned over the past days, the 12270 is key support and a break and close below here is bearish for lower prices. Today I will be a small buyer from 12210/12300 with a tight 12145 stop. Given how close we are to short-term support I do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
September FTSE
My FTSE plan did not work well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for 6085 average long position before stopping me out in the afternoon at 6035 and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading lower at 5970 which is surprising given the extent of the £30 billion stimulus package announce by the Chancellor last Tuesday. The FTSE has support from 5870/5930 where I will again look to buy the market with a 5825 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
I was lucky with my Dow call yesterday as after the market traded lower to my 25925 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at my revised 25985 T/P level. The Dow made a brief rebound high at 26020 before falling 500 points and I am still flat. This morning the Dow is weak trading at 25430 as I go to press. This could be a big day for the market as I cannot see many traders holding long positions over the weekend given the second wave of COVID. The 50 Day Moving Average is just below current prices at 25265 and a break and close below here will be bearish. Today I will be a buyer from 25100/25300 with a tight 24985 stop. The Dow has strong resistance from 25850/26050 where I will be a seller with a 26205 wider stop.
September NASDAQ
Anytime you have a short position in the NASDAQ, you have to be quick to take your profit as the NASDAQ continues to make new highs almost every day. This fractured market cannot continue. The NASDAQ is severely overbought as shown by the DSI reading above 90% bulls. Internally the market is weak with the McClellan Oscillator closing at -116 last night. However, the Fed will continue to support the market so trying to be short is also dangerous despite the worsening economic situation. Yesterday the NASDAQ traded higher to my 10735 sell level before selling off to my revised 10700 T/P level and I am still flat. The NASDAQ made an intra-day low below 10600 before surging into the close. We have strong resistance from 10750/10850 where I will again look to sell the market with a 10955 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 10380/10480 buy level unchanged with the same 10285 stop.
September BUND
I am still flat the Bund which is opening higher this morning. The Bund has strong resistance from 177.05/177.45 where I will be a seller with a 177.81 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Finally, the BPGDM Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index closed below 100 at 96.43 last night. This is still excessive and does point to lower Gold prices going forward. I will now lower my Gold sell level to 1812/1825 with a lower 1837 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
After Silver traded lower to my 18.45 buy level I covered this position at my 18.60 revised T/P level and I a still flat. Today I will be a buyer from 17.80/18.20 with a 17.45 stop.
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