U.S. Equity Markets rose alongside Equities in Europe and Asia amid new bouts of stimulus and positive economic signals as Coronavirus lockdowns ease. The US Dollar slumped for a fourth consecutive day. Two shares rose on the S&P 500 Index for every one that fell, lifting the benchmark to its highest since March 4. Gunmakers extended rallies in the wake of President Donald Trump’s promise to deploy large numbers of troops if cities and states do not act to contain violence from protests over police brutality. Stocks are hovering near their highest in three months as businesses reopen around the world and manufacturing gauges show economies stabilising following Coronavirus shutdowns. That is despite a slew of risks still on the horizon, including tense U.S.-China relations that may jeopardise a hard-won trade deal. The sometimes violent demonstrations across U.S. cities over the killing by police of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, are not yet seen as a major drag on the economy and corporate profits. Everyone who is assessing what they’re seeing on the news every night is recognising things getting worse, and yet the markets are focusing on things that they believe are getting better. Coronavirus cases have plateaued in aggregate and compressed in some of the hardest hit areas. Mobility is starting to pick up, reopenings are starting to pick up. Stimulus hopes powered Europe’s Stoxx 600 to a 12-week high as Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to thrash out a second aid package for Germany. Oil gained as investors eyed a potential extension of record production curbs by OPEC+. Treasuries edged lower, while the pound gained on positive news in trade negotiations between Britain and the EU. Elsewhere, Emerging-Market stocks rallied alongside Currencies. Australia’s dollar rose to its highest level since January. In Asia, Tokyo equity benchmarks outperformed.
To mark my 2075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 60 points yesterday and is now ahead by 677 points for June, having made 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February, 2142 points in January and 818 points in December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.8%, closing at a price of 3080.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1.05% higher at 25,742.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.61% higher at 9657.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.6%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 1%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index gained 1.7%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.29% higher at 22,614.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.3%.
The Euro increased 0.3% to $1.1169.
The British Pound gained 0.4% to $1.2546.
The Japanese Yen weakened 1% to 108.66 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 0.68%.
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.42%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 0.22%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 4% to $36.84 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.7% to $1,728.12 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Unemployment and Markit Services PMI at 8.55 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone and UK Markit Services PMI at 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Unemployment and PPI. Next, we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm, the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and Markit Services PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Non-Manufacturing and Factory Orders.
June S&P 500
An incredible rally in the S&P with the market now rallying 920 Handles since the March 23 low to sit at 3092 this morning. We are now trading in my aggressive sell range. I have gone short here at 3092 and I will add to this position at a price of 3125 with the same wide 3141 stop. The S&P remains broadly higher and in my opinion we are in dangerous territory. I do not know what event will set-off some pent-up selling but something is brewing given how overvalued and over stretched this market is. The McClellan Oscillator closed at +224 last night. The S&P has short-term support from 3045/3058 where I will be a small buyer with a 3035 tight stop.
EUR/USD
Late yesterday the Euro traded higher to my initial 1.1190 sell level before having a small sell-off. As I did not want to hold a position overnight I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 1.1165 and I am now flat. This morning the Euro is trading higher at 1.1215. We have strong resistance from 1.1245/1.1295 where I will be a seller with a 1.1355 wider stop. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1060/1.1120 with a higher 1.1015 stop.
June Dollar Index
My 98.10 long Dollar position did not work out as I was stopped at 97.55 and I am still flat. The Dollar is oversold with support from 96.50/97.10 where I will again look to buy the market with a 96.15 stop.
June DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 12020 sell level before thankfully selling off to my revised 11960 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the DAX has surged trading at 12180 as I go to press. The DAX has now rallied over 50% off its March lows helped by the European Commission’s plan to boost its seven- year budget with Euro 750 billion of borrowing. This certainly ranks as a moment for the European Union. Using debt that will be repaid with EU-wide taxes charged until 2058, the Commission wants to dole out 500bn of grants and 250bn in loans to countries worst hit by the Covid-19 crisis. It needs unanimous backing from all 27 EU Member States and this far from a done deal. All will be revealed at the June 18-19 meeting. The DAX is severely overbought and right up against resistance. I will be a small seller from 12240/12370 with a 12445 tight stop. I do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
June FTSE
The FTSE has opened near the high of yesterday’s sell range and I am now short in small size at a price of 6275. I will leave my stop unchanged at 6340 while raising my T/P level on this position to 6230. With Cable trading over 1.26 I would expect FTSE gains from here to be limited.
Dow Rolling Contract
For those of you who sold the Dow when it hit my sell range at 25700 then you had a nice gain as the Dow fell 150 points before spending the rest of the session trading sideways to higher. I did not sell the market myself as I had too many open positions at the time. I have now gone short here this morning in small size at 25880. I will add to this position at 26150 with a now higher 26325 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 25700 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market hitting my 9660 sell level before falling over 100 points and I covered this position at my revised 9630 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the NASDAQ is less than 100 points from all-time highs which is remarkable turnaround from its 6700 low print in March. Today, I will be an aggressive seller from 9740/9890 with a 10005 stop. The NASDAQ has strong support from 9530/9410 where I will be a buyer with a 9345 stop.
June BUND
This morning the Bund has opened in yesterday’s buy range and I have gone long in small size here at 171.32. I will leave my 170.85 stop unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 171.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
As I am now long Silver I will lower my Gold buy level to 1688/1698 with a lower 1679 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver got hit hard yesterday afternoon and I am now long at a price of 17.65. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 17.95. I will also raise my stop to 17.25 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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