U.S. Indexes closed higher on Friday, with the Dow outperforming, while the Russell lagged. Most sectors closed higher, led by Technology, Industrials and Consumer Staples and Financials, while Energy was the clear laggard alongside lower crude, followed by Communication Services and Real Estate. Macro focus centred on renewed US-Iran diplomatic optimism. Reports suggested negotiations have moved into a more detailed technical phase, while the Iranian President signalled readiness for an agreement with the US. Iranian sources subsequently pushed back on the prospect of imminent progress, but crude failed to recover and settled firmly lower, with WTI at USD 92.41/bbl and Brent at USD 97.44/bbl. Treasuries steepened, with front-end yields falling while the long end rose. The front end tracked energy prices lower as diplomatic optimism reduced near-term inflation concerns, while long-end weakness potentially reflected reduced geopolitical risk and improved growth expectations. T-note futures ticked higher across the curve into settlement, perhaps reflecting some month-end positioning. US data was broadly solid, with Durable Goods beating the headline forecast and the final University of Michigan report revised higher, while Fed officials continued to flag inflation concerns. In FX, the Dollar weakened while the Japanese Yen was the clear outperformer, with USD/JPY falling back below 157.00 after Trump called Yen weakness problematic, while Japanese PM Takaichi said the currency is undervalued and Finance Minister Katayama said she expects excessive Yen selling to be corrected. GBP, AUD, EUR and NZD also gained against the Dollar, while CAD and CHF marginally underperformed. Attention now turns to a key week for US data, including ISM Manufacturing, PCE and NFP, for further evidence on whether the strong growth, elevated inflation and solid labour market narrative remains intact. US Durable Goods Orders were virtually unchanged in August (exp. -0.4%, prev. +1.1%), outperforming expectations but slowing from July, with Transportation Equipment (-0.6%) driving the weakness. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.3% (exp. +0.6%), while orders excluding defence increased 0.1%. More encouragingly, the closely watched Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex-Aircraft, a proxy for business equipment investment, jumped 1.6% M/M (exp. +0.5%, prev. +0.2%), pointing to continued strength in underlying business investment. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that real core shipments increased a more muted 0.3% in August but remain on track to rise at an annualised pace of just over 10% in Q3. Pantheon expects business equipment investment excluding volatile computer and transportation components to increase at roughly the same pace, while overall equipment
investment is tracking around 15% growth, boosted by another surge in computer-equipment spending. Overall, the headline report was broadly flat, but the underlying capital-goods data point to continued robust business investment, particularly in equipment and computers. Fed Member Hammack said the biggest risk with inflation is the formation of an inflationary mindset. The 2026 voter noted growth has held up well with the job market stable, though worries about demand-related pressure on inflation. Hammack believes capex will pressure inflation for a while, and underlying inflation is likely above target, albeit inflation expectations are ‘reasonably well’ anchored. She doesn’t see current Fed policy as restraining the economy except for housing. On bond yields, she says the rise is driven by several factors, including a good economic outlook, with AI investment demand competing for investors in the bond market. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.5% while Gold ended Friday’s session with a gain of 0.5%.
To mark my 3425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 680 points on Friday and is now ahead by 6347 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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