U.S. Indexes closed slightly higher on Friday, with big tech stocks rising while sentiment is supported by another modest decline in oil prices; a near-record $7 trillion quad-witching and index rebalances add to Friday’s set-up. US tariff-delay hopes, a flattening US curve and softer diesel and WTI prices ease inflation concerns, while AI bulls are back in charge. In tech, Mag 7 stocks closed mostly higher led by GOOG/L (+2.0%); AMZN is flat after the 5% rally on Thursday amid a long-term deal with Generac. Meanwhile, Brent crude traded near $104 a barrel. The Dollar climbed 0.2%, while Gold rose toward $4,400 an ounce. Treasuries resumed losses after a brief rebound, with the 10-year yield up six basis points to 5.00%. On Friday morning the Bank of Japan hiked Interest Rates by 25 Basis points as expected, but the vote split skewed dovish as two Takaichi-appointed members dissented, which sent the Japanese Yen sharply lower (USDJPY breaking above 157 for first time since early Sept) and Japanese stocks rallying (Tech > Banks). The USD is higher post BOJ decision. Elsewhere Oil closed lower by 1.60% while Gold reversed some of Thursday’s losses with a 1% gain.
To mark my 3450th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 504 points on Friday and is now ahead by 5624 points for September after ending the month of August with a gain of 2645 points after closing July with a gain of 8031 points, after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 7650.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 95 points lower for a 0.18% loss at a price of 51,682.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.67% higher at a price of 29,644.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.11% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.38% higher at 65,018.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.01% lower.
The Euro closed 0.05% higher at $1.1482.
The British Pound closed 0.23% higher at $1.3390.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.45% closing at $156.66.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 6 basis points higher at 5.30%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.52%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 5.00%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.59% lower at $100.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.01% higher at $4385.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 11.30 am we have a speech from Fed Member Goolsbee followed by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The Federal Reserve delivered its expected rate hike announcement last week, but the dots suggest that policymakers support an additional hike by year-end. Meanwhile, housing remains in hibernation, with Pending Home Sales historically depressed as mortgage rates soar and affordability pressures grind on. And our thematic work puts geopolitics squarely in focus, from Hormuz to the Great Lakes — the U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its seventh month, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in oil firmly in place. Meanwhile, Europe’s far right advances across France, Germany, and the U.K., one reason Ie maintain my underweight call on French government bond as their debt was downgraded over the weekend. Well, for those who do not think that Fed policy is restrictive, it sure is biting into the most interest-sensitive sector of the economy, which is housing. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell to 32 in September from 35 in August, which is a big one-month move and undercut the 34-consensus estimate. This is now tied for the lowest reading since December 2022. Remember, anything below 50 represents outright contraction, a situation we have been in since April 2024. Sales expectations fell hard from 43 to 37, the lowest this has been since January 2023. Fully 38% of the builders cut their prices in September, up from 35% in August — the average price reduction was -6%, having deflated in each of the past six months. Tack on the fact that 66% of the builders also reported using sales incentives, up from 63% in August and the high-water mark of the year. Something that is getting lost in this oil-induced inflation story. With last week’s Fed hike now in the books, this week will be more about tone than fresh data. A parade of Fed speakers — Goolsbee, Williams, Paulson, Barkin, Barr, Jefferson, and Hammack — will help clarify how much further the tightening cycle has to run. Geopolitics takes the other half of the stage as President Trump addresses the UN General Assembly on Tuesday and hosts President Xi Jinping for a state visit on Thursday. On the data front, expect a lighter calendar, with New Home Sales, Preliminary Durable Goods, and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment print offering the main reads. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s message at Jackson Hole, and again at his post FOME press conference, was clear. The Fed aims to tighten financial conditions to bring inflation back to its goal. That has implications for the S&P 500, which has been holding near its highs. That matters because of what happened in the last hiking cycle. Financial conditions began easing in Q4 2022 and never really stopped, which is why stocks rose even as the Fed was raising rates. I think this time is different. Markets are substantially higher, financial conditions are easy, and Treasury net issuance is set to pick back up in October. Some of the effects are already showing up beneath the surface. Rates have been rising, breadth in high-yield bonds has been deteriorating, and breadth measures for NYSE stocks look more like late 2021 heading into 2022 than anything else. With the reverse repo facility practically drained, there is also less of a cushion to absorb new bill supply. I do not think we are quite there yet. The key sectors have not broken down, and credit has not confirmed it. But once issuance ramps up in October, with the potential for another rate hike and the midterms lifting implied volatility, it could set up a choppy, maybe even very challenging, stretch. I am still flat the S&P as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range following the post FOMC surge. This move higher has left a large ‘Open Gap’ from 7551/7611 and as you know all ‘Open Gaps’ are eventually filled. Today, I will raise my buy level to 7575/7600 with a wider 7549 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P will have short-term resistance from 7690/7715 where I will be a small seller with a 7737 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7632. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P 7665. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.1500 with the same 1.1395 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1550. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 99.00/99.70 with the same 98.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.30.
Russell 2000
The Russell finally rallied to my 2900 T/P level on my latest 2850 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of the Russell from 2790/2860 with the same 2745 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2905. Despite how heavy the Russell is trading I still do not want to be short the market at this time
FTSE 100
Higher Gilt Yields weighed on the FTSE over the past two trading sessions. This move lower saw the FTSE hit my 10660-buy level. I will add to this position at 10580 while leaving my 10495 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 10720. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well. After the Dow hit my buy 51520 buy level the market rallied to my revised 51714 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The Dow has short-term support below from 51250/51550 where I will again be a buyer with a 50995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 51830. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has surged over the past few trading sessions and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 29150/29350 with a now higher 28995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29570. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund at an average rate of 121.00. I will leave my 119.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while also leaving my T/P level unchanged at 121.30. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I do not believe that Gold is finished with the downside, especially if the Dollar stays strong. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower 4210/4290 with the same 4095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4348. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 63.00 long Silver position worked well as the market rallied to my 65.60 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has support from 61.70/64.70 where I will be a strong buyer with a higher 59.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 66.90.
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