U.S. Indexes closed higher on Friday as sentiment improved on hopes of progress in US-Iran negotiations, driving a risk-on tone across assets. Equities gained, led by tech, while crude prices fell on reports suggesting a potential breakthrough in talks. Moves were choppy amid conflicting headlines, and crude futures ultimately settled mixed. Tech outperformed after strong Intel earnings lifted the chip sector. Geopolitics remained the dominant driver, with reports pointing to a possible resumption of negotiations, including US envoys travelling to engage with Iran’s foreign minister. However, Iranian media continued to push back on the likelihood of direct talks, keeping uncertainty in play and limiting follow-through in risk assets. Reports suggested talks could take place between Iran and the US on Sunday, but only after Iran-Pakistan talks. The move lower in crude supported Treasuries, with the curve bull-steepening as easing oil prices reduced inflation concerns, particularly at the front end. Meanwhile, T-notes were also supported after it was confirmed the probe into Fed Chair Powell has been dropped, although the White House later said it is still ongoing. In FX, the Dollar weakened in the risk-on environment, with G10 peers broadly firmer. Antipodeans outperformed, with the New Zealand Dollar leading gains on hawkish RBNZ pricing, while the Euro and Sterling also advanced. In commodities, Gold and Silver were bid, supported by the decline in the Dollar and Bond Yields. Data remained of secondary focus, with University of Michigan sentiment declining by less than expected, while inflation expectations rose, reinforcing the broader stagflation narrative. Attention this week turns to a plethora of central banks, including the Fed, BoJ, BoE, BoC and ECB, while US data includes PCE, GDP and the ISM manufacturing PMI report, though geopolitics is likely to remain the main driver of price action. The Final University of Michigan data for April topped expectations as sentiment rose to 49.8 from a preliminary 47.6 but was down from 53.3 in March. Conditions rose to 52.5 from the preliminary 50.1, versus 55.8 in March, while expectations came in at 48.1, versus a preliminary 46.1 and 51.7 in March. One-year inflation expectations ticked down to 4.7% from the initial 4.8%, but were still up M/M from 3.8%. Longer-term 5-10-year expectations edged higher to 3.5% from 3.4%, again topping last month’s 3.2%. Surveys of Consumers Director Hsu said: “After the two-week cease-fire was announced and gas prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a modest portion of its early-month losses. The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices. In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.2% while following a volatile trading session Gold ended Friday with a 0.5% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 399 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1595 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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