U.S. Indexes were broadly firmer as risk sentiment improved on the extension of the US/Iran ceasefire, although underlying uncertainty kept oil prices supported. Equities were bid, while crude prices also moved higher, highlighting the conflicting forces of easing immediate escalation risk but ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical headlines remained mixed. Reports suggested US/Iran talks could resume as soon as Friday, although Iranian press pushed back on this, while uncertainty persists around the duration and credibility of the ceasefire. Continued reports of disruptions in the region, with Iran seizing and firing on ships despite the ceasefire extension, kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets. The move in oil fed through into rates, with the Treasury curve bear flattening as yields rose into the US afternoon. Despite this, precious metals held onto gains, with Gold and Silver supported even as yields edged higher. In FX, antipodes outperformed, tracking the positive risk tone, with NZD leading gains amid hawkish RBNZ pricing. The dollar saw modest strength, largely driven by Euro weakness after Germany, France, and Italy downgraded growth forecasts in response to the war. The Swiss Franc also lagged on the improved risk backdrop with equities gaining. Overall, markets are balancing optimism around a potential de-escalation with lingering uncertainty, leaving oil supported and cross-asset price action somewhat mixed. Elsewhere, there was no Tier 1 US data, while the Fed remains in blackout ahead of the April 29th meeting. The 20-year bond auction came in stronger than expected but had little impact on price action, with markets remaining firmly focused on geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, Oil closed higher by a further 3.5% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 0.3% gain.
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