It was a risk-on trade on Wednesday with the S&P 500 going on to print a fresh record high, with markets completely unwinding the downside seen since the start of the US/Iran war. Optimism remains around an end to the war with US President Trump reiterating overnight that he sees the war being very close to over, while there were reports about a two-week ceasefire extension, but both sides denied it had reached out to offer such an olive branch. Although the overall market tone was positive with stocks surging, oil prices settled flat in a two-way trade. Oil was sold on optimism, but gains were seen after a bullish EIA inventory report, seeing crude settle unchanged. However, post-settlement weakness was seen amid reports that Iran could consider ships being able to sail through the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz, but it depends on whether the US is prepared to meet Iran’s demands. The upside in Equities led to outflow of traditional havens with the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, U.S. Dollar, T-notes and Gold all lower, while Bitcoin saw further gains. QQQ (+1.4%) finished firmer for the 11th day in a row, supported by strength in the Mag7 and a continued rebound in software. In Europe, ASML (ASML, -2.4%) beat on earnings; however, the Q2 revenue outlook missed, weighing on shares. In financials, earnings continued to be positive, with the latest beats seen from Morgan Stanley (MS, +4.5%) and Bank of America (BAC, +1.8%) Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April; the headline general Business Conditions Index rose eleven points to 11.0 (exp. -2.0). New orders and shipments increased significantly; New Orders to 19.3 from 6.4, and Shipments to 20.2 from -6.9. Unfilled orders rose, and delivery times lengthened. Supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment expanded, and the average workweek increased. The pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Prices Paid jumped to 51.0 from 36.6, while prices received were little changed at 21.8 from 21.4. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated and capital spending plans weakened. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics writes that the report shows the sector is holding up well and companies are absorbing the recent jump in costs in their margins for now. Import Prices rose 0.8% in March (exp. 2%, prev. 1.3%), while Export Prices lifted 1.6% (exp. 1.5%, prev. 1.5%), as the former jumped 2.1% Y/Y, the strongest annual growth since December 2024. Most of the monthly gain was driven by non-fuel imports rather than fuel imports, as fuel import prices only rose 2.9% in March, despite the Middle East war, which has caused global energy prices to soar. Ahead, risks are leaning towards higher import prices in 2026 due to higher global oil prices. Overall, Oxford Economics adds, while headline inflation will be pushed higher by fuel prices this year, they expect the passthrough to core prices will be muted, and as such see core inflation to average 2.8% in 2026, which should be contained enough to allow the Fed to stay focused on risks to the labour market. Fed Member Hammack thinks that rates are in a good place, and the baseline is that the Fed will stay on hold for a while. She warned of two-way risks, but she will be watching the data, acknowledging that it is a tough time for monetary policy. She said the key is how high energy prices get, and how long they remain there. She said this could bring inflation higher, but it could also hit growth. She exclaimed the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored, which she said are reasonably well contained. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold was weak ending Wednesday’s session with a 1% loss.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 140 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1306 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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