U.S. Indexes closed the final session of the week mixed, but rangebound, as the NASDAQ 100 edged out slight gains while the S&P closed lower by 0.2%. Sectors were predominantly in the red, with only Tech, Materials, and Discretionary in the green, while Consumer Staples and Health lagged. The Dollar closed lower for the fifth consecutive day, which saw mixed performance across G10 FX peers; EUR, GBP, and CHF all gained, while the CAD, NZD, and JPY all saw losses vs. the Greenback as Middle East rhetoric once again dominated the tape. All focus is on the US-Iran talks on Saturday, despite the ever-ongoing differences between the sides, with the latest reports suggesting that Iran said talks with the US to begin if ‘preconditions are accepted’, as there continues to be differing opinions regarding Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump told NYP that US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail. As such, WTI and Brent were choppy on Friday, but ultimately settled with losses. In the Euro-Zone morning session, benchmarks saw pressure in the EZ morning amid reports that Ukrainian President Zelensky’s top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin; note, the interview was conducted on April 4th and in the few minutes after the report, Zelensky suggested Putin is not genuinely seeking peace. Precious metals were mixed as Spot Silver gained, but Gold weakened while Treasuries were lower despite softer-than-expected core CPI. Recapping the inflation metrics, the headline surged, as expected, given the Iranian war, continuing to justify the Fed’s wait-and-see mode, while the University of Michigan preliminary for April was dismal. Fed Member Daly said if the Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, then a rate cut is ‘not out of the question’. However, if inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, the Fed would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done. She also notes that persistently high oil prices would hurt growth, and they are already forecasting higher prices show through to the economy, with people pulling back on travel because they are worried about higher costs. Daly puts a lower probability on a rate hike than on a cut or holding steady with current policy, restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation; balanced enough to support a steady labour market. Policy in a good place gives the US more time to see how the conflict is resolved and what happens to oil prices. The San Francisco Fed President describes US economic fundamentals as ‘solid, and the labour market as in a steadier place. Risks to the Fed’s goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. University of Michigan prelim figures for April disappointed, highlighted by Sentiment tumbling to 47.6 from 53.3, way beneath the expected 52.0. Conditions fell to 50.1 from 55.8, and Expectations dropped to 46.1 from 51.7. Short-term inflation expectations also dramatically increased, given the Middle Eastern war, as 1-year ahead surged to 4.8% from 3.8% (exp. 4.2%), while 5-Year was more contained at 3.4%, in line with expected but rising from 3.2%. Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavourable changes to the economy. Note, 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. The report adds that economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated. Moreover, one-year expected business conditions plunged by 20%, assessments of personal finances declined 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.3% while Gold ended Friday’s session with a 0.3% fall.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 253 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2103 points for April after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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