U.S. Indices closed positive on Wednesday but off the earlier peaks, with oil prices falling while T-notes rose across the curve. The driver of price action was the reported progress in moving to peace in the US/Iran war after the US sent a 15-point peace plan and ceasefire proposal to Iran. However, the optimism did fade as Iran said it did not accept the proposal and gave in turn its own demands. Nonetheless, the US still said they are still awaiting Iran’s response, while Iran’s foreign minister toed the line that no talks with the US are ongoing, but the US is sending messages through different mediators, noting that an exchange of messages via mediators does not mean negotiation. It is still a fluid situation amid the conflicting reports between both sides, but the market has taken it as a step in the right direction at least. Treasury yields were lower across the curve, particularly in the long-end, with price action dictated by energy prices. The 5-year note auction was soft, adding to the weakness seen in recent auctions, particularly the front-end and belly offerings. The Dollar outperformed despite the move lower in yields and downside in crude. The Australian Dollar was hit by soft Aussie inflation overnight. Gold and Silver were bid, as was Bitcoin. Aside from geopolitics, US import and export prices were hot but had little market impact while Fed’s Barr expects to hold Interest Rates steady for some time and wants to see evidence of a sustainable inflation retreat. Goolsbee warned energy shocks pose risks to both sides of the mandate, and he does not know if the Fed can cut rates again as it depends on how long the war lasts. The February Import prices rose 1.3% M/M, above the 0.5% forecast and accelerating from the prior 0.2%. It was also above the highest analyst forecast of 0.9%. Import prices Y/Y rose 1.3% (prev. -0.1%). Export prices rose 1.5% M/M, above the 0.5% forecast and 0.6% prior, but was within the analyst forecast range of 0.2-2.0%. Oxford Economics highlights “The largest rises were concentrated in fuel, industrial supplies, and capital goods import prices, reflecting elevated global oil prices and strength in business investment related to AI demand.” In terms of price implications, OxEco says that “While headline inflation will be pushed higher by fuel prices this year, we expect the pass-through to core prices will be muted. We expect core inflation to average 2.8% in 2026, and while this is still above target, it should be contained enough to allow the Federal Reserve to stay focused on risks to the labour market.” Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 1.40% gain.
To mark my 3350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1170 points yesterday and is now ahead by 8137 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points whe ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.54% higher at a price of 6595.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 304 points higher for a 0.66% gain at a price of 46,428.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.67% higher at a price of 24,162.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.42% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.87% higher at a price of 53,749.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.19% higher.
The Euro closed 0.25% lower at $1.1560.
The British Pound closed 0.18% lower at $1.3360.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.28% closing at $159.42.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 17 basis points lower at 4.78%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 7 basis points lower at 2.96%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 4.33%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.89% lower at $90.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.41% higher at $4538.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Sentiment at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Money Supply at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 12.30 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a Seven-Year Treasury Auction at 5.00 pm while Fed Member Cook is due to speak at 8.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 managed a modest gain on Wednesday, but do not let that fool you — the index has essentially gone nowhere this week. It has been consolidating sideways, stuck in a tight range that sits within last week’s trading range. In other words, it is consolidating, not recovering. What concerns me is the pattern that is forming. It looks a lot like a bear pennant, which, if it plays out, suggests the next move in the index is lower — and potentially by a meaningful amount. The Fibonacci extensions on a break of that pennant point to levels well below where we are now. The moving averages continue to tell the story. The 10-day exponential moving average has been a ceiling that the Index just cannot seem to punch through, and the 200-day moving average reinforces that resistance from above as the market again found strong selling from 6620/6630. Until the S&P can reclaim those levels, the path of least resistance remains lower. Credit spreads are quietly confirming the risk-off tone. Even on a day when the S&P was green, high-yield credit spreads actually widened. That divergence — equities up, credit deteriorating — is not the kind of thing you want to see if you are looking for a sustainable rally. There is a key level on the CDX high-yield index that keeps getting tested and rejected, which is worth watching closely. One of my favorite liquidity gauges, Wingstop, dropped to its lowest level since September 2023. The stock has been absolutely hammered from its peak back in late 2024. What makes it interesting is how well it has correlated with Bitcoin over time. It is not a perfect leading indicator, but more often than not, Bitcoin tends to follow where Wingstop goes — and right now, Wingstop is not painting a pretty picture for crypto. Speaking of Bitcoin, it appears to still be working through a bear flag pattern. Maybe it sees another push toward the upper end of the channel, who knows, but if the pattern holds, it is unlikely to stay there for long. And Wingstop seems to agree. Shortly after I posted this morning the S&P rallied to my 6620 T/P level on Friday’s 6530 average long position and I am now flat. The S&P tried four times to get above 6630 before selling off to an intra-day low at 6568. This move lower saw my next buy level triggered as emailed to my Platinum Members at 6570 before rallying to my 6590 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has short-term support below from 6515/6540 where I will again be a strong buyer with a 6489 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6578.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 1.1450/1.1520 with the same 1.1385 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1590.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small seller from 100.10/100.90 with the same 101.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.50.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as Tuesday’s gap higher saw the market close at a price of 2536. I will now raise my buy level to 2430/2490 with a higher 2375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2535.
FTSE 100
Gilt Yields falling 17 basis points helped the FTSE to close back above 10,000 and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 9870/9950 with a 9795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10030.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Wednesday’s buy range and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the Dow higher on the basis that I believe it will be very difficult for Oil to break and close below $80 as the market will keep some risk premium in the market. On that basis I will continue to be a buyer of the Dow on any further move lower to 45620/45920 with a 45395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46240.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. Just like the Dow above I will not chase the NDX higher. We are having an excellent month so there is no need to take undue risk. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 23680/23930 with a higher 23465 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24140.
December BUND
My latest 126.00 long Bund position worked well as the market rallied to my 126.70 T/P level and I am now flat. There is no doubt that the 3% level in yields is now a key pivot point. The Bund has support below from 125.50/126.20 where I will again be a buyer with a higher er 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.80. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a high at 4600 on Wednesday before falling into the close and I am still flat. Gold has support below from 4270/4370 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 4195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4460. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to stay flat Silver until I feel I have a better edge. This is no harm given the extraordinary volatility that we are witnessing at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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