U.S. Indices closed higher on Friday with outperformance in the NASDAQ after the underperformance on Thursday with gains broad-based; Equal weight S&P +0.6%, and the majority of sectors closed green with materials and utilities outperforming, the former buoyed by metal prices and the latter buoyed by gains in Vistra (VST) and other nuclear power stocks after Meta (META) signed a deal with Vistra for its power. T-notes flattened with the front-end yield rising after the NFP report, while long-end yields fell after the SCOTUS avoided ruling on the Trump IEEPA tariffs today, but may potentially rule on the issue this Wednesday. The NFP report saw 50k jobs added in December, missing the 60k forecast, but the unemployment rate declined by more than expected. The report did little to suggest an immediate threat to the labour market and therefore any rate cut bets for January were unwound. In FX, the Dollar gained post-NFP while the Japanese Yen lagged after reports that Japan’s PM Takaichi is considering a snap election in February after strong approval ratings, where Takaichi’s LDP party is only a few seats short of a majority in the Lower House, which, if she can claw back, would see her take more control of the government. The Yen sold while Nikkei futures rallied on the prospects of looser fiscal policy. Oil prices gained as US tensions with Iran grew, while precious metals saw notable gains amid ongoing volatility in the space. Base metals also saw gains. Attention this week turns to US CPI, Retail Sales, Treasury supply, potential tariff rulings from the Supreme Court, and the start of the Q4 25 earnings season. The December Employment Report saw 50k jobs added to the economy, below the 60k consensus but within analyst forecast ranges and also towards the top end of the Fed’s breakeven estimate of 0-50k. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, which was revised down from 4.6%, beneath the 4.5% forecast. The report did little to alter the Fed’s narrative, and it largely confirms a hold at the January meeting as it shows no sharp deterioration in the labour market, and with inflation still above target, gives the Fed room to pause. Regarding earnings, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% M/M in line with forecasts but accelerated from the prior 0.2% (revised up from 0.1%). On a yearly basis, earnings rose 3.8%, accelerating from the 3.5% prior and above the 3.6% forecast. Regarding the NFP prints, remember Fed Chair Powell suggested that headline prints are likely being overstated by about 60k per month; implying an actual print of -10k. Meanwhile, the two-month net revisions were -76k, although the October data was subject to sharp one-time government job losses. Analysts at ING, meanwhile, highlight how job growth is also very concentrated, with 41k of the 50k jobs from private education and health care services. The desk also notes that since January 2023, this sector has accounted for 55% of the 5.2mln jobs added, government jobs accounted for 20%, and leisure and hospitality contributed 18%. Meanwhile, Tech, construction, manufacturing, business services, financial services, retail, transport, and logistics are responsible for just 7% of job creation over that time period, and in December, this group lost 51k jobs, with only one up month in the last eight. Therefore, ING suggests the Fed still has more work to do. Consumer Sentiment rose more than expected in January, 54.0 (exp. 53.5, prev. 52.9), its highest reading since September 2025. Improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes. Consumers continue to be focused primarily on high prices and softening labour markets. Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labour markets. Current conditions rose to 52.4 (exp. 50.5, prev. 50.4), and Expectations rose to 55 (exp. 54.2, prev. 54.6). Year-ahead inflation expectations remained at 4.2% (exp. 4.2%), while the five-year expectation increased to 3.4% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.2%). The October Building Permits fell 0.2% to 1.412 million from 1.415 million in September, above the 1.35 million forecast. Single-family authorisations fell 0.5% from September to 876k from 880k. Multi-family units were at 481k. Housing Starts fell 4.6% to 1.246 million from 1.306 million in September, while single-family starts rose 5.4% to 874k from 829k. Multi-family starts were at 347k. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that the data show signs of stabilisation, but big headwinds remain, and the desk continues to think “that a key route for homebuilders to run down their inventory will be building fewer homes.” Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.35% higher while Gold ended Friday with a gain of 1.8%.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 915 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1520 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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