U.S. Indices closed Monday higher, with outperformance in Energy as US oil companies saw strength in the wake of the US’s attack on Venezuela, which saw Maduro captured. WTI and Brent also saw gains, and despite being choppy through the European session, it was one-way traffic higher in the US day. Amid the US attack on Venezuela, it has opened up the question if US decides to do an operation in another country, with punchy rhetoric from President Trump on Colombia. Following the attack, Chinese, Mexican, Turkish, and Russian officials all condemned the US’s actions on Venezuela. Overall, sectors do see upside with Utilities, Health, and Consumer Staples lagging. In FX, the Dollar Index erased gains seen overnight as an unexpected drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI offset strength in response to the US capture of Maduro. The geopolitical developments kept haven demand in play, originally supporting the Greenback, with Antipodeans, Sterling and the Japanese Yen all eventually seeing out strong gains, while the Canadian Dollar was the clear underperformer. Back to ISM, although the headline disappointed and prices paid came in above expectations, both sub-indices of new orders and employment rose, albeit remaining notably beneath 50. Treasuries are firmer across the curve, with spot gold and silver seeing notable gains, with the latter up 7%. Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) spoke and remarked that his guess is that they are close to neutral at the moment. Geopolitics dominate the tape to start the week, and likely will for the foreseeable future; meanwhile, the US jobs report is due on Friday. The headline manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.9 from 48.2, below expectations of 48.4 and marking the lowest reading of 2025. Within the report, new orders edged up to 47.7 from 47.4, while the production index fell 0.4 points to 51. The backlog of orders index rose to 45.8 from 44.0 in November. Employment increased to 44.9 from 44.0, while prices paid were unchanged at 58.5, despite forecasts for a decline to 57.0. The report said US manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace in December, with declines in the production and inventories indices driving the 0.3-point fall in the headline. “Those two subindexes increased in November, so their contraction this month continues the short-term ‘bubble’ of improvement seen in recent PMI data — and a hallmark of ongoing economic uncertainty in manufacturing.” On prices, Pantheon Macroeconomics said the index remains well below the April peak of 69.8. Pantheon also noted that price measures across other major manufacturing surveys point to underlying core inflation easing meaningfully by mid-2026, by which time the one-off boost to consumer prices from tariff pass-through should be largely complete, giving the Fed further scope to resume its easing cycle. Fed Member Kashkari said the job market is clearly cooling, inflation is still too high, and there is a risk that the unemployment rate can pop from here. On the neutral rate, the 2026 voter remarked his guess is that they are close [to neutral] at the moment, something we know has a wide range of views on the Fed. Minneapolis President expects the economy to remain resilient, and speaking on Fed independence, noted he is not concerned about the risk of Fed Bank Presidents being fired, and he does not agree with US Treasury Secretary Bessent that Bank Presidents do not represent their districts well. Meanwhile Fed Member Paulson said she sees inflation moderating, the labour market stabilising and growth coming around 2% this year, while she added that if all of that happens, then some further adjustments to the Fed Funds Rate would likely be appropriate later in the year. Paulson said she views the current level of rates as still restrictive and sees a decent chance that they will end the year with inflation that is close to 2% on a run-rate basis, as tariff-related price adjustments will likely be completed. Furthermore, she stated that while the labour market is bending, it is not breaking and that the baseline outlook for the economy is pretty benign. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.8% while Gold ended Monday’s volatile session with a 2.8% gain.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday and is now ahead by 730 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 6902.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 594 points higher for a 1.23% gain at a price of 48,977.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.77% higher at a price of 25,401.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.94% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.26% higher at a price of 52,485.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.16% lower.
The Euro closed 0.01% higher at $1.1726.
The British Pound closed 0.65% higher at $1.354.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.41% closing at $156.21
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.51%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.87%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.81% higher at $58.36 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.52% higher at $4442.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm and U.S. Composite PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Bundesbank Member Mauderer at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed 0.64% higher on Monday, though there is still little to say about the current state of the market. The technology sector lagged the broader index, with the XLK Technology ETF gaining just 0.2%. At this point, the XLK is little more than a proxy for Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, with those three stocks accounting for roughly 40% of the ETF. Looking at XLK more broadly, the sector has been largely stagnant over the past few weeks, effectively consolidating within a triangle pattern. As a result, the next move for the group is highly uncertain and could break in either direction. The problem, of course, is that Apple shares fell by more than 1% yesterday and dropped below their 50-day moving average for the first time since July. The technical damage could worsen if the stock breaks below the $265 support level. Microsoft, on the other hand, has been trading below its 50-day moving average for some time and is now also below its 200-day moving average. Support around $470 appears to be pretty important as well. I would guess that if these stocks do not recover quickly, the technology sector will have a tough time moving higher if roughly 25% of the group’s weighting is not participating positively. It is something to keep in mind over the coming days as this plays out. In the meantime, I still expect implied volatility to rise heading into the jobs report on Friday and the CPI release on January 13. Volatility is too low at this point, and I would expect that to be reflected in the VIX 1-Day moving into the mid-teens, if not higher. It is interesting that despite all three main American Indexes closing higher on Monday that the VIX also ended yesterday’s session with a 3% gain. Historically a rising VIX into a rising market does not end well. Yesterday, the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 6908 average short position. To reduce risk, I covered this position at my revised 6901 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 6925/6945 with a higher 6963 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6907.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my sell level to 1.1790/1.1860 with a higher 1.1925 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1730. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
Just when it looked like my 99.10 T/P level in the Dollar was about to be triggered the market got hit for 60 points. I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.80. As I have had this position for over three weeks I will now look to exit this trade for a small loss at 98.60. Meanwhile, I will leave my 97.95 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Late in Monday’s session the Russell hit my sell range for a now 2550 short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 2510. I will continue to look to add to this trade on any further move higher to 2610 while leaving my 2655 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE closed above the key 10000 pivot point on Monday. I am still short at an average rate of 9985 with the same 10085 ‘Closing Stop’. The FTSE continues to trade outside the top of its Daily and Monthly Bollinger Bands. Given this backdrop I cannot see a good risk/reward in being long. Today, I will raise my T/P level to 9935. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged yesterday, hitting a new intra-day all-time high at 49200. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 48900 average short position. I will leave my 49305 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 48810. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat as the NDX fell shy of Monday’s sell range. Today, I will lower my sell level to 25600/25800 with a lower 25955 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25460.
December BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range on Monday and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 126.00/126.80 with a higher 125.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 127.40. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat as I still have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Wow. Every dip in Silver continues to be aggressively bought. This price action comes against the backdrop of last week’s massive downside key day reversal. To me this is the key. As long as Silver cannot break and close above $84 I will continue to be a seller of rallies. Yesterday after Silver hit my 76.20 sell level we had a retracement to 74.60. This move lower saw my revised 75.40 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Subsequently, Silver surged over 7% into the close, trading at 78.81 this morning. Silver has short-term resistance from 80.00/82.00 where I will again be a seller with a higher 84.05 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 78.30. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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