U.S. Equity Markets got slammed in the last hour of trading following Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. The NASDAQ led the decline, closing lower by 1.8% on what turned to be a session with wild two-way price action. Markets turned lower as investors turned defensive following the Federal Reserve policy decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The Fed’s economic projection now calls for a year-end median target rate of 4.6% – a full 1.0% higher than June’s projection. Members also raised the estimate for 2023’s Unemployment rate to 4.4% from June’s 3.9%. Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his stance that sustained below-trend economic growth must be realised to provide price stability while Existing-Home Sales posted their seventh-straight monthly decline. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. Investors digested expectations of the Fed’s aggressive rate decision, which increased pressure on the European Central Bank (“ECB”) to match rate hikes. Attention was also on ECB President Christine Lagarde, who delivered hawkish remarks late Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of its reserve military, intensifying the conflict in Ukraine. And Germany announced the intention to nationalise Uniper – in a move to rescue the country’s largest gas importer. In Asia, Investors’ worries about rate hikes from global central banks weighed on equities ahead of the Fed’s rate decision Wednesday. The Bank of Japan’s meeting to discuss fiscal and monetary policy commenced with the spotlight on the easing of COVID-19 stimulus and the Yen. A statement from the People’s Bank of China said that current interest rates are reasonable and leave room for future policy action if needed. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank cut its regional growth forecasts for this year and the next amid rising rates and China’s zero-COVID strategy. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.70% while Gold reversed early losses, closing higher by 0.70%
To mark my 2625th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1280 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4690 points for September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.71% lower at a price of 3789.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 522 points lower for a 1.70% loss at a price of 30,183.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.8% lower at a price of 11,637.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.87% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.36% lower at a price of 27,313.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 1.2% higher.
The Euro closed 1.4% lower at $0.9847.
The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at 1.1280.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $144.01.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 1.88%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 3.31%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 3.53%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.70% lower at $82.05 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.70% higher at $1675.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. This is followed by the Bank of England Rate Decision at 12.00 pm. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Current Account at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence. Finally, at 3.30 pm we have the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index.
Cash S&P 500
Although my S&P plan worked well for us yesterday, it was a nasty session for both bulls and bears alike. The S&P traded in a 130 Handle range with plenty of two-way price action within this range in the last 90 minutes. The ugly news was the break and close below the 150 Weekly Moving Average which has obvious further downside risks. The Dollar closed at a new high for 2022 which I did not see happening which may lead to further strength. However, there is the caveat of Bank of Japan intervention which is getting closer by the day in my opinion. The positive take from yesterday’s session is the McClellan Oscillator closing at –242 while the $NYMO continues to show positive divergence at last night’s close. Meanwhile, Bond Yields did reverse from spiking above 3.6%. We need to see follow through over the rest of the week. Bears are now in full control and the bull case is getting very challenging. However, from a chart point of view, the S&P is severely oversold and I just cannot bring myself to shorting the market. Yesterday the S&P hit my second buy level at 3820 before rallying to a rebound high at 3907. This move higher saw my 3889 T/P level triggered on my 3875 long position. I hope you did better, buy I exited my 3820 long position at 3860 and I am now flat. The S&P has support from 3732/3752 where I will again be a buyer with a 3709 ‘’Closing Stop’’. As I go to press the S&P is trading in my buy range at 3751. I have bought the market here with a 3780 T/P level.
EUR/USD
I am certainly wrong on my 1.0060 long Euro position. Given the number of points made this month, I will continue to hold this position with no stop or T/P level for now.
March Dollar Index
The 1.4% rally in the Dollar yesterday saw the Dollar make new 20-year highs at 111. This move higher hit my 110.30 next sell level, for a now 108.90 average short position. I will continue to hold this position with no stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 108.10.
Cash DAX
I was lucky as the DAX rallied to my 12800 T/P level before the FOMC Statement was released and I am now flat. Despite having every chance to make new lows the DAX continues to hold above support at 12500. Today, I will again be a buyer from 12310/12410 with a 12195 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE rallied to my 7240 T/P level on my latest 7200 long position and I am now flat. The new low in Cable continues to prevent the FTSE from falling further. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 7060/7120 with a 6995 wider stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well. The Dow traded to my 30450 initial buy level before rallying to my 30720 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the Dow is trading lower at 30150. We have strong support from 29700/29900 where I will again be a buyer with a 29495 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied to my 11920 T/P level ahead of the Fed. Subsequently, we sold off to my second buy level as emailed to my Platinum Members at 11750, before hitting my 11900 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX is now down a massive 32% for the year to date. We have strong support from 11300/11450 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 11185 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December BUND
No Change. I am still long from Tuesday at 141.40 with the same 141.80 T/P level and same 140.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as Gold hit my 1655 buy level before rallying to my 1666 T/P level and I am now flat. I am impressed how well both Gold and Silver traded yesterday despite the 1.4% rally in the Dollar. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1635/1650 with a lower 1623 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver rallied over 2% yesterday. This move higher saw my 19.80 T/P level triggered on my 19.25 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 18.70/19.30 with no stop.
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