U.S. Equity Markets got slammed yesterday as the sell-off accelerated in the last two hours of trading. The NASDAQ 100 led the declines with a loss of 2.75% while the VIX exploded to the upside with a gain of 9%. It was an ugly session all round. The U.S. Department of Labour said another 229,000 individuals filed Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending June 4. This figure was greater than the week prior’s upwardly revised number of 202,000 and Wall Street’s projected 206,000. Prior to the release, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey set a record high, highlighting tightness in the labour market. However, yesterday’s data could suggest a shift in activity. If Jobless Claims continue to rise and job openings begin to decline, it may indicate a slowdown in economic growth. In this instance, it would help reduce inflationary pressures, as wage gains and a tight labour market remain a major roadblock to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to rein in inflation. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. European Union lawmakers voted in favour of halting the production of new gasoline- or diesel-powered cars starting in 2035. Negotiations between Russia and Turkey to establish a designated sea passage for the export of grains from Ukraine ended without a resolution. The French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies Office’s First-Quarter Payroll growth was in line with expectations, driven by continued strength in services-related hiring. The European Central Bank left Interest Rates unchanged but did signal a 25 Basis Points rise in July, followed by a 50 Basis Points rise in September. At the same time it ended its Bond Buying Programme, leading to a 200 point fall in the German Bund. In Asia, Taiwan’s export growth for May was weaker than expected as shipments to China and Europe slowed. Chinese Ministry of Commerce official Li Xingqian said the government will do everything it can to help exporters obtain more orders and boost economic growth. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi will meet with Chinese National Defense Minister Wei Fenghe this weekend to discuss naval activity in the waters off Japan. Shanghai’s government said it would place a district in the southwestern part of the city under restrictions for mass COVID-19 testing, starting Saturday. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.75% on market volatility while Gold fell 0.27% after the Dollar rallied.
To mark my 2550th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 530 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1681 points for June after making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 2.38% lower at a price of 4017.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 638 points lower for a 1.94% loss at a price of 32,272.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.74% lower at a price of 12,269.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.4% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.36% lower at a price of 27,861
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.7% higher.
The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.0630.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2502.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $133.88.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points higher at 1.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points higher at 2.33%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 3.04%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.754% higher at $119.67 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.27% lower at $1844.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no Economic data of note. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. CPI where the consensus is for a rise of 0.7% for an unchanged yoy rate of 8.3%. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the Monthly Budget Statement.
Cash S&P 500
Although the S&P got slammed yesterday my plan worked well with the S&P trading lower to my 4085 buy level before rallying to my 4103 T/P level and I am still flat as I emailed my Platinum Members to stay out of the market until we get today’s key CPI print. I am of the firm view that peak CPI has passed but it may take a couple of months to show up in official data. Most inflation commodities that I chart like Steel, Lumber and Copper have fallen over 25% in the last few months while Crude and Rents are still at nosebleed levels and have yet to fall. The S&P fell hard in the last two hours of trading as the Dollar reversed earlier losses after the ECB announced it will start hiking rates way too late next month while Junk Bonds rolled over and have now closed lower in six of the past nine trading sessions. However, despite the aggressive sell-off in European Bonds, the 10-Year Treasury closed unchanged. Adding the volatility is next week’s FED Meeting on Wednesday and the expiry of the June Futures and Options Contracts when a record $3.2 trillion is due to expire on Friday. These two events will guarantee plenty of two-way price action. The S&P has strong support from 3972/4002 where I will be a strong buyer with no stop for now. I just can’t see the S&P breaking below 3950 ahead of the FED Meeting. I am not going to chase the S&P lower, leaving my 4220/4250 sell range unchanged with the same 4268 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro hit a high above 1.0760 post the Lagarde press conference before getting sold aggressively. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 1.0640 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.0685 while leaving my 1.0575 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
The rally in the Dollar saw my initial 102.95 sell level triggered. I am still short and I will add to this position on any further move higher to 103.55 with the same 104.05 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 102.60.
Cash DAX
The DAX has had a bad week, trading over 600 points lower from where we were last Monday. Thankfully, after the DAX hit my 14210 buy level, we had a small rally, enabling me to exit this long position at my revised 14255 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the DAX is opening at 14100. We have strong support from 13900/13980 where I will again be a buyer with a 13795 wider stop.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE followed Global Indexes lower yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 7473 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 7490 while leaving my 7385 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite the Dow falling over 800 points from its morning high above 33100, my Dow plan worked well. After hitting my 32730 buy level we rallied to my revised 32925 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow accelerated lower in the last hour, closing below 32300 which I did not envisage. Ahead of next week I still expect the Dow to rally as my signal charts are still severely oversold. The Dow has strong support from 31750/32050 where I will again be a buyer with a 31575 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. Despite the fall in the Dow yesterday, the Fear & Greed Index fell just 4 points, closing at 32 last night which is still a reading of ‘’Fear’’ and well above last Month’s low of 6.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX had a volatile trading session yesterday with plenty of two-way price action throughout the day before reversing to the downside mid-afternoon. The NDX hit my 12530 buy level before rallying to my 12640 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. I am still convinced that we saw a meaningful low in the NDX last month at 11500 and unless we close below this level I will continue to add to my existing long position on dips. The NDX has support from 11950/12150 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 11795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12370. Meanwhile, I will continue to look to exit my existing 14327 long position at 13400 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with an update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
The Bund got slammed yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 147.80 average long position for the September Contract. This morning the Bund is trading at 147.70. I will now lower my T/P level to 148.25 while leaving my 146.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. As I am back long Silver, I will now lower my Gold buy level to 1810/1823 with a 1799 stop. Yesterday was certainly a busy day with Gold the only Contract not to get hit. It is a long time since 9 of my 10 Contracts were triggered in the one day.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 21.60 buy level. I am still long with a lower 21.80 T/P level. I will add to this position at 21.00 while leaving my 20.35 stop unchanged.
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