Following another volatile trading session which saw plenty of two-way price action, U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session mixed, led by a 0.19% gain in the Dow. Despite weakening investor sentiment, key earnings reports have helped to even out some of the present volatility plaguing the market. This is because roughly 80% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far have provided figures above Wall Street’s estimates – including Microsoft (MSFT), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and Lucid (LCID). However, major concerns remain. Investors continue to focus on aggressive policy by the Federal Reserve, a potential slowdown in global growth, as well as broader geopolitical issues. The U.S Dollar is also currently nearing its highest level in five years thanks to rising interest rates attracting foreign bond investments. This indicates to some analysts that U.S. growth may outpace the rest of the world. And while this can have a positive impact on manufacturing imports, it can hurt major U.S. exporters due to the Dollar’s greater value over foreign currencies. Within the S&P 500, five of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Russia said it will cut off natural gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland, following through on a declaration that it will refuse delivery to countries unwilling to pay in Rubles. The Confederation of British Industry’s Retail Sales numbers for April were below expectations, as the volume of orders placed continued to drop. German Consumer Confidence figures for May were weaker than expected, as individuals expect costs to continue rising and business conditions to deteriorate. German Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck said the country has reduced dependence on Russian oil enough that it can handle a full European embargo. In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly told his cabinet that the country’s economic output goal for this year is to beat U.S. Gross-Domestic-Product growth. Semiconductor manufacturer SK Hynix reported disappointing first-quarter operating profit, saying computer and smartphone chip demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. Japan’s government said it will introduce $48.5 billion worth of measures to help ease the rising costs of fuel and food for businesses and households. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida encouraged Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to continue working toward the 2% inflation target. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.39% following Russia’s decision to halt oil deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria, while Gold fell a further 1.09% after equity markets saw some improvement.
To mark my 2525th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 350 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1472 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher at a price of 4184.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points higher for a 0.19% gain at a price of 33,301.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.05% lower at a price of 13,005.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.17% lower at a price of 26,386.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% higher.
The Euro closed 1.1% lower at $1.0553.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.2536.
The Japanese Yen fell 1%, closing at $128.41.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.80%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 1.82%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed ten basis points higher at 2.83%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.39% higher at $102.01 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.09% lower at $1885.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence and the Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am. This is followed by German CPI at 1.00 pm. Finally, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and the PCE Indicator at 1.30 pm, followed by the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
This market remains tricky to trade as it tries to frustrate as many investors as possible. Believe me it is doing a good job on that front. I still see small positive signs in the market. With the McClellan Oscillator again closing below -200 I would not chase these markets lower despite the bearish sentiment. In the after hours the NDX is trading higher led by better earnings from Facebook, which is trading up 12% this morning. Apart from the key U.S. GDP release at 1.30 pm all eyes will be on the results from Amazon and Apple after the Cash Markets close. Any positive results here could see a vicious rally while at this stage given the rout of the last week most of the bad news is now priced into the market. As I mentioned yesterday the last week has been challenging but against that we have had tremendous gains in the market so far this year. I am still long the S&P at a price of 4330. I will not add to this trade but I will lower my exit level to 4280 and if this level is triggered I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. For new Members who are flat, the S&P has strong support from 4120/4150 where I would look to buy with a higher 4085 stop. If you do buy at this level I would have a T/P level at 4185.
EUR/USD
The Euro is trading at a five-year low after falling a further 1% yesterday. This move lower saw my 1.0595 stop triggered on my 1.0740 long position. With the DSI in single digits I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Euro again at 1.0540. I am still long with a 1.0630 T/P level. I have a 1.0455 stop on this position and any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
I did not see this up move in the Dollar. As a result, I was stopped out of my 102.20 short position at 103.05 and I am now flat. The Dollar’s rally sees the Daily Sentiment Index at a near unstainable 92 print. We have resistance from 103.25/103.85 where I will again be a seller with a 104.25 stop
Cash DAX
No Change. I will stay flat today as I have enough long exposure at this time and I do not want to be a seller at these low levels.
Cash FTSE
My long FTSE position worked well with the market rallying to my 7390 T/P level on my latest 7340 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 7320/7380 with a wider 7245 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow saw plenty of two-way price action as the Dow hit an afternoon high at 33700 before falling almost 500 points. It is impossible to have a fixed stop in this market given the volatility as you are almost guaranteed to see your stop triggered. Ahead of the key data and earnings today, I will leave my 33050/32850 buy level unchanged with the same 32595 stop. Given how oversold the market is trading I no longer want to be short at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Thankfully the NDX rallied to my 13180 exit level on my 13250 long position before falling 200 points. This move lower enabled me to buy the market again at a price of 13010 as emailed to my Platinum Members before rallying to my 13175 T/P level after the close. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 12850/13000 with a 12695 stop. If I am taken long at this level I will have a T/P level at 13150. I continue to nurse this month’s 14327 long position.
June BUND
I am still flat the Bund. Ahead of U.S. GDP, I will now lower my buy level to 153.70/154.30 with a wider 152.95 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Gold rallied to a high of 1910 before stopping me out of my 1907 long position at 1889 and I am now flat. This is the first loss I have had in Gold in many weeks. Gold has support from 1855/1870 where I will again be a buyer with an 1839 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1882.
Silver Rolling Contract
After I was stopped out of my 24.30 long Silver position, the market traded lower to my second buy level at 23.20. I am still long with a higher 22.45 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 23.79.
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