U.S. Equity Markets finished the day lower after a mixed session in which the NASDAQ fell 1.49% while the Dow ended yesterday with a gain of 0.71%. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he believes the U.S. economy can stand on its own without fiscal or monetary support. He noted that the central bank can afford to raise interest rates to a neutral level, which neither hurts nor helps the economy. As a result, Bostic said he anticipates interest rates settling around 2% to 2.5%, as anything more could be too aggressive with a 0.75% increase. This suggests he is concerned about an economic slowdown, as anything beyond a measured approach could cause damage to the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) reported U.S. crude inventories declined by 8 million barrels last week compared with the estimated decline of 770,000 barrels. This drop may highlight that while the U.S. and other countries are taking steps to ramp up production, the global supply shortage continues to drive increased demand and higher oil prices. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. February’s Euro-Zone Industrial Production data was in line with estimates, increasing compared with January thanks to output improvement in Italy and Spain. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Martins Kazaks noted it could raise interest rates as soon as July due to increased inflation risks. German producer price index (“PPI”) figures for March came in higher than estimates amid rising energy and fuel costs. Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom reportedly did not book any capacity for pipeline exports to Europe for May, indicating gas prices may soon surge. In Asia, the Bank of Japan said it will purchase an unlimited number of the country’s 10-year sovereign bonds to stabilise interest rates. Japan’s export figures for March showed expansion ease compared with February, as shipments to China and broader Asia contracted versus the year prior. The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark lending one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, signalling lenders are unwilling to ease borrowing standards. Taiwan’s export order growth for March was better than anticipated but slowed versus February due to an easing in shipments expansions to China. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.5% on heightened U.S. consumption and a decline in Chinese demand, while Gold closed 0.26% higher on equity market volatility.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 85 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 1839 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 4459.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 250 points higher for a 0.71% gain at a price of 35,160.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.49% lower at a price of 13,998.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.2% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.86% higher at a price of 27,217.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.6% lower.
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.0848.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.3058.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.9%, closing at $127.96.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at 0.86%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 1.93%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed ten basis points lower 2.84%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.5% lower at $102.51 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.26% higher at $1955.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Inflation at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Survey at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, at 4.00 pm we have a speech from Fed Chair Powell.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P traded in a wide 50 Handle range, falling shy of both my buy and sell levels before closing unchanged. Despite the volatility, the VIX closed lower by 5% at 20.32. Considering the sell-off in Netflix Shares, internally the market performed well with the Dow leading the charge. After hours, we are trading higher on better than expected results from Tesla. Helping the situation was the nice fall in 10-year yields and it will be interesting to see if we get any follow through after Powell’s speech at 4.00 pm. The Market has done all the rate hikes needed from the Fed and it would be no surprise if we meet half-way around the 2% mark later in the year. Today, I will raise my S&P buy level to 4425/4445 with no stop for now. Ahead of Powell’s speech I will have no sell level especially given the breakout in the Dow which closed yesterday above its 200 Day Moving Average (35020)
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0680/1.0740 with the same 1.0595 stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.0935/1.0985 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1031 tight stop.
March Dollar Index
The expected rally in the Japanese Yen helped the Dollar to fall 0.5% yesterday and in the process trigger my 100.45 T/P level on my 100.70 average short position and I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 100.70/101.20 where I will again be a seller with a higher 101.61 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
The surged yesterday and is trading over 200 points higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Today, I will again raise my buy level to 14070/14150 with a tight 13995 stop.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a seller on any further rally to 7680/7740 with the same tight 7771 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow has now rallied over 750 points in 48 hours, leaving a ‘’Buy Extreme’’ in the process as we closed above the key 200 Day Moving Average for the first time since the end of March. If Powell does not upset the markets in his speech today, then there is no reason why the Dow cannot test the February high of 35750. Unfortunately, the Dow missed my 34750 buy level by 70 points before rallying to sit at 35250 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 34820/35070 with a wider 34595 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still aggressively long at an average price of 14327. The NDX reversed most of Tuesday’s rally yesterday on the back of Netflix. Earlier the market again failed at the 50 Day Moving Average (14241) before selling off 250 points into the close. Today, I will continue to have no stop on my long position while leaving my 14360 T/P level unchanged.
June BUND
Finally, a profit in the Bund as the market rallied to my 154.30 T/P level on my latest 153.70 average long position and I am now flat. The Bund has support from 153.45/154.05 where I will again be a buyer with a wider 152.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 154.65.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Ahead of Powell, I will leave 1910/1925 buy level unchanged with the same 1897 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 24.10/24.70 with a lower 23.45 stop
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