Last Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labour reported that another 185,000 individuals filed Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending April 9, which was higher than the prior’s week’s upwardly revised figure of 167,000 and Wall Street’s forecast of 177,000. It also marked the highest weekly total since the March 4 figure of 198,000. And on a historic basis, the number remains near all-time lows, suggesting ongoing tightness in the labour market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Retail Sales rose by 0.5% compared with the anticipated increase of 0.6%. The figure was also lower than February’s upwardly revised gain of 0.8%. However, on an annual basis, retail sales rose 6.9% – even as the consumer price index hit its highest level in more than four decades. This may indicate that consumers are continuing to buy at a huge pace despite present volatility. The European Central Bank announced its latest policy update, with investors paying close attention to updates on the timing of interest-rate hikes. So far, it has left interest rates unchanged at 0%, but the Governing Council said it intends to end bond purchases under the Asset-Purchase Programme during the third quarter. The Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey indicated lenders expect available credit to shrink in the second quarter and for defaults to increase. The Swiss government said it would adopt the European Union’s latest sanctions on Russia, including financial and travel restrictions, as well as a ban on importing coal and vodka. Stocks sold off hard into Thursday’s close. Despite an extremely volatile session yesterday, the VIX closed lower by over 2% after a rebound into the close saw the S&P close basically unchanged. U.S. banks’ first-quarter results helped ease some concerns about consumer spending, as it appears many consumers continue to travel and buy goods amid interest-rate hikes and an uptick in COVID-19 cases. Homebuilder Sentiment declined to a seven-month low due to increased mortgage rates and high home prices. The National Association of Home Builders noted that its gauge declined by two points in April to a reading of 77. This suggests that while the sector remains optimistic, it could see a further decline in purchases in the months ahead. Meanwhile, U.S. Natural Gas prices jumped to their highest level since 2008, indicating robust demand as drillers work out capacity logistics and their ability to expand supplies. But given Russia’s war on Ukraine, inventories are anticipated to remain tight for quite some time. Within the S&P 500, five of the 11 sectors finished lower. In Asia, China’s First-Quarter Gross Domestic product data showed growth was slowing on a quarter-over-quarter basis, even prior to its recent COVID-19 lockdowns. The People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.25%, freeing up about $83.2 billion in lending capacity. Equity markets in Hong Kong and Australia along with Europe were closed for the Easter holiday. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will continue with easy-money policies… but a stable Yen will remain in the government’s best interest. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.91% while Gold closed flat.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 363 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 1439 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.02% lower at a price of 4391.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points lower for a 0.11% loss at a price of 34,411.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.13% higher at a price of 13,910.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.08% lower at a price of 26,799.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% higher.
The Euro closed 0.7% higher at $1.0780.
The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at 1.3007.
The Japanese Yen fell 1.1%, closing at $126.98.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points higher at 0.84%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed seven basis points higher at 1.89%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 14 basis points higher 2.86%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.91% higher at $106.91 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $1979.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Trade Balance at 7.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits. Finally, at 5.05 pm we have a speech from Fed Member Evans.
Cash S&P 500
My 4440 latest short S&P position worked well with the market selling off on Thursday, hitting my 4428 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has had every chance to sell-off further but twice yesterday it found support at the 4360 level which is frustrating as the S&P just missed my buy level by one Handle. Given the number of Hindenburg Omens on the clock and a Market Cap to GDP over 180% it must be extremely frustrating for the Bears that any sell-off is attracting lots of buying. Indeed, we saw positive divergence on the two-hour chart and this helped the S&P to rally 25 Handles into the close and that ramp-up has continued in the after-hours with the S&P sitting at 4405 as I go to press. The vertical move higher in 10-Year Treasuries looks unstainable from here without at least a pause and this will help the NDX to recover some of the 10% that it lost last week. To add to my bullish inclination, the S&P has now had three Red Candles on the Weekly Chart. I cannot remember the last time we had four Weekly Red Candles. I will now raise my S&P buy level to 4362/4382 with a wider 4343 stop. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range on Thursday for a 1.0800 average long position before rallying to my 1.0835 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. Subsequently, the Euro sold off yesterday and I bought the market again at a price of 1.0770 with a 1.0805 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 1.0720. I will have a stop on this position at 1.0685 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with an new update for my Platinum Members
March Dollar Index
On Thursday, the Dollar rallied to my 100.45 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this position at 100.95 with a now higher 1.0141 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 100.15 and again if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 13740/13840 with the same 13655 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13905.
Cash FTSE
Late yesterday, the FTSE finally rallied to my 7635 sell level before selling off to my revised 7612 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 7670/7730 with a tight 7771 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower early yesterday morning to my 34320 buy level before rallying to my 34530 T/P level shortly after Cash Markets opened. I am still flat and as long as the Dow does not break the 34100 support level I will continue to be a buyer on dips. Thursday’s speech by Powell will be closely watched as it will be his last main speech ahead of next Months’ Key FOMC Meeting. The Dow has support from 34150/34380 where I will be a strong buyer with a wider 33985 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still aggressively long at an average price of 14327. The NDX has fallen over 10% in the past week and with 80% of its shares below their respective 200-Day Moving Averages, the NDX is due a bounce that may turn into a vertical move higher. I will continue to have no stop on my long position while leaving my 14360 T/P level unchanged.
June BUND
I was lucky on Thursday as the Bund rallied to my 155.95 exit level (with a high of 156.17) on my aggressively long 156.40 long position and I am now flat. The Bund sold off into the European Close on Thursday following ECB President Lagarde’s press conference. The Bund has support below from 153.50/154.10 where I will again be a strong buyer with no stop for now. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 154.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I am not going to chase the Gold Market higher, leaving my 1917/1932 buy level unchanged with the same 1903 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1944.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver closed strong on Thursday, and I am still flat. Today, I will again raise my buy level to 24.30/24.90 with a tight 23.75 stop
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