Despite 10-Year Treasuries seven basis points higher at a yield of 2.66 %, U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier losses to close higher on the day, led by the 0.43% gain in the S&P. In a speech at the University of Missouri, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated that the Fed needs to act to combat inflation. He said that the Fed is currently behind the curve but added that he thinks the Fed needs to raise rates another 3% this year (to get to 3.5%). These comments show that Bullard remains one of the most hawkish members on the Fed. This could mean continued tightening from the central bank at a quicker pace than markets had previously thought. In terms of Economic Data, Weekly Jobless Claims hit the lowest level in more than 50 years. In Wall Street’s view, declining jobless claims signal economic expansion. The latest release supports the Federal Reserve’s recent guidance for a more aggressive stance in removing easy-money policies. In the afternoon, markets rallied sharply off their lows. This surge higher coincided with the European market close. Thus, with European sellers out of the way, U.S. buyers stepped in… The S&P 500 Index even climbed above the 50-day moving average at 4,491, which could bring in more buyers if the index closes above that key technical level tomorrow night. Staples stocks outperformed today, led by Lamb Weston (LW), which reported strong earnings and revenue. HP (HPQ) surged higher after Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) took a massive stake in the computer maker. On the downside, Twitter (TWTR) gave back some of this week’s gains on profit taking – which weighed on communications stocks. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. The International Energy Agency’s announcement yesterday that member countries would release 60 million barrels of oil reserves eased supply fears. European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said Chinese President Xi Jinping asked regional leaders to “set aside” differences on Ukraine, signalling little support to end the conflict. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk called on civilians to leave the eastern part of the country due to concerns Russia is looking to launch a new offensive. European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said the region is not seeing a wage-price spiral but is concerned inflation has not peaked yet. In Asia, Japan’s economic growth outlook was lowered by the International Monetary Fund from 3.3% to 2.4% for 2022 on commodity-price risks related to the Ukraine conflict. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the government will use monetary policy and other tools to support domestic economic output. Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said it is necessary to maintain easy-money policies as it will take some time before inflation hits the central bank’s 2% target. Communications-equipment giant Samsung Electronics said preliminary first-quarter operating profit rose 50%, beating expectations, on strong semiconductor demand. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.71%, while Gold closed higher by 0.4%.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 170 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 629 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.43% higher at a price of 4500.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 87 points higher for a 0.25% gain at a price of 34,583.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.23% gain at a price of 14,531.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.69% lower at a price of 26,888.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0880.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.3075.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $123.98.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.67%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 1.72%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points higher 2.66%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.71% higher at $97.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% higher at $1931.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. The only U.S. data is Wholesale Inventories which will be released at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P traded in a wide 70 Handle range but in contrast to the previous two trading sessions we saw a rally into the close as Bears were not able to break the key 4450 support level. This move higher saw my 4510 exit level on my 4527 long position from Monday and I am now flat. As I go to press the S&P is trading slightly lower at 4496. This afternoon’s low just missed my 4445 buy level unfortunately, before the market turned around. The market sold off on Fed Member Bullard’s comments for rates to rise to 3.5% this year. In my opinion there is no chance of this happening as we saw in 2018 when Bond Yields rose to 3.2% it caused the S&P to fall over 20%, resulting in the Fed caving in and re-introducing QE. Yesterday evening’s Total Consumer Credit release was an enormous $41.82bn versus $16.65bn expected. This is a sign of a distressed Consumer forced to go into debt to make ends meet in the face of collapsing personal savings rate and massive inflation. As I have said countless times the Fed are trapped, and I do not envy them trying to get out of this hole that they are in. However, they continue to print so the S&P may hold up for another couple of weeks especially given the strong rebound into the close. Today, I will move my S&P buy level higher to 4455/4475 with a 4439 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0780/1.0840 with the same 1.0725 stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.0960/1.1010 and I will still be a small seller in this range with a tight 1.1055 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rise to 100.10/100.70 with the same 101.25 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 99.55.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX has support from 13850/13950 where I will be a small buyer with a 13745 wider stop. I no longer want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to ignore the carnage in both the European and U.S. Indexes, closing unchanged. The FTSE has resistance from 7670/7740 and I will raise my sell level to this area with a higher 7795 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustrating. The Dow made a low of 34178, points above my 34150 initial buy level before reversing to rally 400 points and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 34050/34300 with a higher 33895 stop. I will not chase the Dow lower leaving my 34900/35150 sell level unchanged with the same 35305 stop.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 14630 with the same 14670 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop especially as we had a nice rally off the test of the 50 Day Moving Average (14337). If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June BUND
No Change. I am still long and wrong at a price of 158.30 with no stop and the same 158.70 T/P level.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1890/1905 buy level with the same 1881 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will continue to be a buyer from 23.20/23.80 with the same 22.65 stop.
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