U.S. Equity Markets started the week in positive fashion led by the NDX which again reversed earlier losses, closing higher by 1.58%. This move higher was led by Tesla which has now rallied 45% in 10 days. Markets were flat through most of the afternoon, as investors digested Russia headlines and recession “indicators.” President Joe Biden called on the U.S. and its allies to prepare for a drawn-out conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, which dented any optimism that a deal could be reached anytime soon. As for the recession indicators, the five-year and 30-year Treasury curves inverted – with the five-year’s yield trading above that of the 30-year for the first time since 2006. In the past, yield-curve inversion has predicted a recession in the coming months. Thus, this inversion sparked fears of an imminent recession. However, the most well-known yield-focused recession indicator (the two-year/10-year yield curve) still has not inverted. Tesla (TSLA) provided a huge boost for the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the consumer discretionary sector, on reports that it was going to do another share split, and drawing up plans to pay a dividend. On the downside, energy stocks fell with oil prices due to fears of a recession and increased supply coming from a potential Iran deal. Lower prices mean that margins across the oil sector will compress, hurting earnings. Still, oil prices are above $100 per barrel, so the companies can charge higher prices than they have for years. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. French President Emmanuel Macron said NATO countries were not seeking a regime change in Russia, in an attempt to ease rising tensions. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his country is open to declaring neutrality and discussing constitutional referendums, ahead of today’s talks with Russia in Turkey. European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Chief Josep Borrell said a nuclear deal with Iran is very close to being signed, potentially boosting the global oil-supply outlook. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said it is prepared to adjust monetary policy depending on economic direction. In Asia, Chinese industrial profits for the first two months of the year showed an increase in growth over late 2021, driven by gains for energy and raw material companies. The Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year sovereign bonds at a fixed rate of 0.25% to stem the recent rise in yields. The People’s Bank of China added roughly $19 billion worth of funds to the financial system in an attempt to keep liquidity stable into the quarter’s end. The U.S. government was said to have proposed forming a semiconductor alliance with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to stabilise supply-chain issues. Elsewhere, Oil fell 9.39% as a potential Iranian nuclear deal would likely increase crude supply, while Gold closed 1.83% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 340 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5874 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.71% higher at a price of 4575.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 94 points higher for a 0.27% gain at a price of 34,955.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.58% higher at a price of 14,987.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.9% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.06% higher at a price of 28,241.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0991.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at 1.3095.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7%, closing at $123.70.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.58%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points lower at 1.62%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower 2.48%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 9.39% lower at $103.51 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.3% lower at $1919.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which came at -15.5 versus -14 expected. Next, we have U.K Mortgage Approvals at 9.30 am, followed by CPI at 10.00 am, and the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin at 12.00 pm. This is followed by the U.S Housing Price Index and a speech from Fed Member Williams at 2.00 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the JOLTS Job Openings.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market rallying to my 4550 sell level before falling to an afternoon low at 4518, thus enabling me to cover this short position at my 4532 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently, the S&P surged into the close as yet again traders are ignoring the increased Bond Yields and any inflation in the system. The S&P is now trading just 5% from all-time highs. The Charts had us long for most of the recent rally but things are going to be tricky to read from here especially as we closed over the 100 Day Moving Average last night. The rise in Global Bond Yields has led to a loss of $2.7 trillion which is more than the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is a staggering amount of capital which is not been talked about in the Financial Press. Meanwhile Consumer Confidence is at a 10 – Year lows as Yield Curves are inverting. All of this suggests a recession is coming but probably not until next year as there is still too much liquidity in the system. I will now raise my buy level to 4515/4533 with a higher 4493 stop. The S&P has further resistance from 4590/4610 where I will again be an aggressive seller with no stop for now.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long at 1.0980 with the same 1.1010 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 1.0920 while leaving 1.0875 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
March Dollar Index
The Dollar again traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will not chase the price higher, leaving 98.20/98.70 buy level unchanged with the same 97.85 stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX rallied shortly after I posted yesterday morning, trading above the key 14500 resistance level. Thankfully, we had no sell range yesterday are still flat. Even though Bund Yields are surging, the fact that ECB are continuing with their insane QE Policy is supporting European Indices. The DAX has support from 14280/14380 and I will now move my buy level to this range with a higher 14195 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14370. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7530 sell level before trading lower to my 7580 T/P level and I am still flat. Despite the fall in Sterling yesterday, the FTSE failed to rally which is a warning sign for me. The FTSE has resistance from 7545/7600 where I will again be a seller with a tight 7655 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Yesterday’s rally saw the VIX fall a further 6%, closing below my 20.50 target level at a price of 19.83. I am still flat the Dow, as I wait patiently for the market to hit my sell range above 35,000 as outlined over the past week. Today, I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 35110/35350 with no stop. The Dow has short-term support from 34350/34580 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 34175 stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed slightly higher at 49 last night which is still a ‘’Neutral’’ Reading. Despite all three U.S. Indexes closing higher, internally yesterday’s session was weak as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed lower at + 135.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ has now risen a staggering 16% over the past two weeks led by the incredible gains in both Apple and Tesla. Yesterday’s surge saw the NDX hit my initial 15010 sell level. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 15140 while leaving my 15255 stop unchanged. I will have a T/P level on this position at 14905 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I no longer want to be long the NDX at this time especially with the 10-Year Treasury trading at 2.47%
June BUND
The Bund traded lower to my second buy level at 157.75 for a now 158.10 average long position. I will leave my stop unchanged at 157.25 while lowering my T/P level to 158.65. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1918 buy level, just before the New York close before rallying overnight to my 1929 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1890/1905 where I will again be a buyer with a 1873 wider stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from yesterday morning at 25.00. I will add to this trade at 24.40 while leaving my 23.95 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 25.30 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments