Following, another volatile trading session U.S. equity markets finished yesterday’s trading session basically unchanged after rebounding following the FOMC Minutes. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index rose above the key 200-Day technical level on hopes of de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. But President Joe Biden walked back this optimism, saying there was no evidence that Russia was pulling troops away from the border. This sent markets lower in the afternoon, but they rallied after the Federal Reserve’s minutes at 7 p.m. The Fed’s most recent policy Meeting Minutes all but pointed to a rate hike at the March meeting. The members also said they would be in favour of quicker rate hikes than we have seen the central bank carry out since 2015. The Fed also began discussions on significantly winding down its balance sheet. This was nothing new for markets, but sometimes no surprises are a good thing – which is why after the Minutes’ release, markets bounced off their lows, surged higher, and finished above their 200-DMA. The advances and declines were more evenly split in the S&P 500 than in previous days. Communications names underperformed, dragged lower by Paramount’s (VIAC) warning on declining FCF and Meta Platforms (FB) threatened by Alphabet (GOOGL) changing its privacy rules. On the positive side, energy stocks rose as new reports suggested no easing up in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed mixed. Euro-Zone Industrial Production figures for December expanded more than anticipated as German activity levels rose. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed not allowing Russian firms to raise capital in the U.K., as part of a potential sanctions package if Russia invades Ukraine. European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said it could cease net asset purchases as soon as the third quarter, which would not necessitate a rate hike. In Asia, Chinese consumer price (“CPI”) and producer price index (“PPI”) figures for January were weaker than anticipated, continuing a recent easing trend as Beijing seeks to cool prices. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it will maintain current monetary policy until the central bank can achieve its 2% inflation objective. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said it will maintain “supportive monetary policy” in 2022 to ensure the economy achieves its full potential. Australia’s Secretary to the Treasury Steven Kennedy said the government should pull back on fiscal stimulus so central-bank policy normalisation can commence. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.34%, while Gold rose 1% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 304 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3779 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.09% higher at a price of 4475.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points lower for a 0.16% loss at a price of 34,934.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.12% lower at a price of 14,603.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.22% higher at a price of 27,460.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1376.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.3588.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $115.43.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.27%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 1.53%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 2.03%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.34% lower at $90.71 a barrel.
Gold closed 1% higher at $1,869.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Housing Starts, Building Permits, Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 2.00 pm we have a speech from ECB Member Lane.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4434 buy level before rallying to a late high at 4489 as yet again the ‘’buying the dip’’ pays dividends. As I wanted to be flat ahead of the Fed Minutes I covered this long position at 4445 and I am still flat. The late rally saw the VIX close lower by over 5%, below the key 25.00 support level. If the VIX can trade lower today, then the S&P should quickly trade back above 4500. The 200 Day MA comes in at 4456 and will offer support on any further test. Today, I will again be a small buyer from 4422/4442 with a wider 4399 stop. I will now raise my sell level to 4515/4535 with a higher 4551 stop.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.1390 sell level before selling off to my revised 1.1365 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1420/1.1470 with a tight 1.1505 stop. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar finally traded lower to my 95.80 T/P level on my latest 96.05 short position and I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 96.10/96.60 where I will again be a seller with a tight 97.05 stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy level and I am still flat. I will again raise my buy level to 15180/15260 with a higher 15095 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15320.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE missed my 7540 buy level by 20 points before having a small rally into the close following an extremely quiet session. The FTSE seems to be oblivious to the other Equity Markets, happily trading higher most days this year. I will now raise my buy level to 7505/7555 with a higher 7465 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked extremely well with the market hitting my 35120 sell level before falling 500 points. This move lower saw my 34970 T/P level filled. Post the FOMC Minutes, the Dow rallied almost 400 points in the last 90 minutes of trading, and I am still flat. The Dow has resistance from 35240/35440 where I will be a small seller with a 35605 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 14430 buy level before rallying to my revised 14510 T/P level and I am still flat. The NDX has support from 14320/14420 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. I still do not want to be short the market. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level again at 14510.
March BUND
Finally, the Bund traded higher and I was able to exit my latest 166.26 long position for a loss at 165.40 and I am still flat. The profit made in Equity Markets yesterday helped to smudge over the Bund loss. The Bund has support below from 164.30/164.80 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 165.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1805/1820 with the same 1789 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1831.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 23.20 with the same 23.70 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 22.60 with no stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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