Following another volatile trading session, the NASDAQ 100 led U.S. Equity Markets higher with a gain of 1.33%. Amazon topped both earnings and revenue estimates, while its Amazon Web Services topped growth expectations. The company also announced that it would raise Amazon Prime prices. This sent shares 13% higher. Given its huge weighting in the major indexes (3% in S&P 500 and 6% in Nasdaq), this move boosted broader markets. Employment numbers was the important data release on Friday. Non-Farm Payrolls came in ahead of expectations, showing the economy added jobs in January, in contrast to the ADP data from earlier in the week. The data supports the Federal Reserve’s decision to taper its asset purchases. It also means the size of the gain and large revisions higher will fuel recent Wall Street speculation that the central bank could be forced to raise interest rates more quickly than anticipated. The advances and declines were nearly balanced. AMZN outperformed to the upside, while Snap (SNAP) and Unity Software (U) also posted gains on strong fourth-quarter earnings. Clorox (CLX) was one of the big decliners on the day, falling more than 10% after it warned of a challenging cost environment. Meta Platforms (FB) extended yesterday’s decline, after Snap’s earnings suggested that the company was dealing with Apple’s privacy changes better than Meta. Within the S&P 500, six of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Bloc could deny Russia access to foreign capital as well as export controls if it continues aggression toward Ukraine. Euro-Zone Retail Sales figures for December fell more than anticipated as activity in Germany and Spain created the biggest drags. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the region’s economy has surpassed pre-pandemic activity levels, suggesting interest rates may need to rise sooner than expected. In Asia, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government is not considering a review of the national sales tax, but instead should focus on spending and revenue reform. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said inflation remains low, saying monetary policy must remain accommodative. South Korea’s consumer price index data for January was stronger than expected but fell versus December, easing the need for continued rate hikes. Equity markets remained closed in China and Taiwan for the Lunar New Year holiday. Elsewhere, Oil rose a further 2.36%, setting another eight-year high, while Bitcoin surged 12% above $40,000 as investors’ risk appetite returned.
To mark my 2475th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 313 points last Friday and is now ahead by 1428 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.52% lower at a price of 4500.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 21 points lower for a 0.06% loss at a price of 35,089.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.33% higher at a price of 14,694.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.73% higher at a price of 27,439.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1448.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.3527.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $115.19.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.20%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 1.41%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points higher at 1.91%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.36% higher at $92.15 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.22% higher at $1,807.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Industrial Production at 7.00 am and Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. Finally, we have U.S. Consumer Credit at 8.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The Volatility in U.S Indexes is incredible with moves than normally take a few weeks to happen are now occurring intra-day with plenty of two-way volatility as a result. Shortly after I posted on Friday, the S&P made a high at 4535 before falling 90 Handles on the NFP Release, and in the process had a successful test of the 200 Day Moving Average (4444) before rallying back to a new high for the session at 4540. Subsequently, we sold off 40 Handles into the close. My S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 4465 average long position before rallying to my 4492 T/P level and I am now flat. We have support from 4454/4472 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a 4433 stop. Ahead of CPI on Thursday I am reluctant to be short as in my opinion the S&P is setting itself up for a large move higher as most long-term charts are still oversold after the carnage in January. The S&P has resistance from 4570/4590 where I will be a small seller with a 4608 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4488. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4554.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1370/1.1420 with a tight 1.1325 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar again missed my sell level by just 4 points before selling off small into the New York close. Today, I will continue to look to sell the market from 95.80/96.30 with the same 96.55 tight stop.
Cash DAX
The only way to trade this volatility is to have no stops. I learned that valuable lesson again on Friday as after the DAX hit my 15220 average buy level, I was stopped out near the low of the day at 15115 and I am still flat. Subsequently, the DAX rallied over 100 points add to my frustration. The DAX has strong support from 14900/14980 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 14815 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15050.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat. The FTSE has support from 7410/7460 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 7375 stop. I no longer want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Unfortunately, I had the wrong big figure in Friday’s Daily Commentary which should have been 34900/35100 and not 33900/34100 as stated. As I was having a good trading day I left my original buy range stand and I am still flat. If you did not notice the error and did buy the market you should have had a nice gain as the Dow rallied off a 34800 afternoon low by rallying 500 points. The Dow has strong support from 34700/34900 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 34495 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Shortly after I posted on Friday, the NDX rallied to my 14820 T/P level on Thursday’s 14787 long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again at a price of 14520 before rallying to my 14625 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite last week’s rally off the 13750 low the NDX is still severely oversold. I have no interest in being short the NDX as there is every chance the NDX can rally back to the 15500 area to correct some of these oversold chart readings before having a more meaningful sell-off. The NDX has support from 14450/14550 where I will again be a buyer with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14635.
March BUND
No Change. I am still long a severely oversold Bund at 167.03 from last Thursday with the same 167.45 T/P level. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 165.50 with no stop for now. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold again missed my 1780 buy level before having a nice rally into the New York close and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1773/1788 with a higher 1759 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1796
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from last week at 22.65 with a now lower 22.95 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 21.80 with no stop for now. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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