U.S. Equity Markets finished the day lower following another sell-off after the S&P again tested its 200 Day Moving Average. The Russell 2000 led the decline with a loss of 2.29% and is now down a whopping 20% from its November high. In the afternoon, the S&P 500 Index rose and even climbed above the 200-DMA at 4,433. But it could not hold that level for long, and the bears once again pushed equities lower. This battle will continue to play out until the S&P 500 can climb through the 200-DMA and hold above it. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting still made headlines. Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank intends to move forward with policy tightening, setting the stage for a March interest-rate hike. And the uncertainty over future policy decisions weighed on investor sentiment. In terms of economic data, employment data was positive. Jobless Claims fell for the first time in five weeks, indicating that the labour market is still strong. The declines continue to outnumber the advances in the S&P 500. Tesla (TSLA) was one of the main weights on stocks yesterday, after the electric-vehicle maker warned of ongoing supply-chain problems. Semiconductors were another weak spot, with Intel (INTC) and Teradyne (TER) both plummeting on weak guidance. On the positive side, Netflix (NFLX) broke its losing streak after Bill Ackman said he had established a $3 billion position in the streaming giant. Within the S&P 500, six of the 11 sectors finished higher. In contrast, European Markets again closed higher. Growth from Knowledge’s (“GfK”) German Consumer Confidence index for February was stronger than expected, as individuals’ outlook on spending and income rose. The Netherlands removed all COVID-19 restrictions, while the governments in Denmark and France were said to consider similar action as soon as next week. The European Central Bank was said to ask regional lenders about exposure to Russia, as it prepares for the possibility of economic sanctions in the event of a Ukraine invasion. In Asia, Chinese industrial profit growth for December slowed from November, as metals and mining expansion eased. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he expects the Bank of Japan to continue its current monetary policy to try and reach its 2% inflation target. The Bank of Korea’s manufacturing business confidence index for February fell from January, as companies complained about domestic demand. Australia’s export price index figures for the fourth quarter unexpectedly gained, as coal and natural gas demand surged. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.63% on profit-taking, while Gold declined a further 2% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2475th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 215 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3878 points for January, after ending December with a loss of 932 points, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, and 2077 points last January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.54% lower at a price of 4326.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 7 points lower for a 0.02% loss at a price of 34,161.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.20% lower at a price of 14,103.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 3.11% lower at a price of 26,170.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.6% higher.
The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.1145.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.3379.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7%, closing at $115.35.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.06%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 1.23%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points lower at 1.81%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1% higher at $87.09 a barrel.
Gold closed 2% lower at $1,817.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Import Price Index at 7.00 am, followed by GDP at 8.00 am. At 9.00 am we have U.K. Consumer Confidence and Euro-Zone Money Supply. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator and Business Climate. Next, we have U.S. PCE and Employment Cost Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indicator.
Cash S&P 500
Another trading session of total chaos with the S&P trading in a 160 Handle range, resulting in one of the most volatile weeks in S&P points movement ever. This does not tell half the story as we saw wild swings within this range all day. Shortly, after I posted the S&P made low of 4272, just missing my 4270 buy level before rallying to an afternoon high at 4433, before we sold off 120 Handles and I am still flat. There is no doubt we are in a complex corrective process but with markets so oversold I have no interest in pressing the short-side preferring to by flushes in the market. The McClellan Oscillator continues to generate a buy signal closing at massive – 304 print last night. With two days to go until the end of the month there is every chance Fund Managers will try to mark prices higher into month-end. Today, I will move my buy level higher to 4275/4305 with no stop.. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4333. Ahead of month-0end I have no interest in being short the S&P.
EUR/USD
My long Euro position proved to be wrong with the market stopping me out of my 1.1230 long position at 1.1185 and I am still flat. The Euro has resistance from 1.1190/1.1240 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1285 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.1150.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar closed higher by a further 0.75% yesterday and I am still flat. The Dollar is oversold with resistance from 98.00/98.60 where I will be a seller with a 99.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 98.20.
Cash DAX
The DAX ignored selling of American Equities, closing higher by 0.5% and I am still flat. I am not going to chase the DAX higher, only raising my buy level slightly to 15000/15100 with a higher 14925 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15160. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE soared yesterday, and I am still flat. I will not chase the FTSE higher while at the same time I still do not want to be short. Ahead of the weekend I am going to stay flat until I get a better edge to this market.
Dow Rolling Contract
I had way too tight a T/P level on my latest 33780 long position in the Dow with the market soaring to an afternoon high at 34770, easily hitting my 33930 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently, sellers pushed the Dow lower by 700 points before rallying overnight on the back of Apple. The Dow has support from 33750/33950 where I will again be a buyer with no stop for now. Just like the S&P and NDX, I do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34130.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX had a wild ride yesterday, rising sharply before getting hit hard, closing lower by 1.25%. The initial rally saw my 14030 T/P level executed on my 13920 latest long position and I am still flat. The NDX has support from 13780/13930 where I will again be a buyer with no stop for now. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14020.
March BUND
No Change. My only interest in buying the Bund is still on a dip lower to 168.50/169.10 with a tight 167.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 169.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold got hit a further 2% yesterday, closing below the key 1800 support level which is bearish. This move lower saw my 1792 buy level filled before I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1795.50 and I am still flat. I am going to stay flat over the weekend as I want to see the price action given the stronger Dollar.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit my 22.65 buy level and I am still long with a now lower 23.40 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 21.80 with no stop for now. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Finally, as I am travelling next week for a couple of days, my next Daily Commentary will be on Wednesday Feb 2, 2022. We have had a solid month of profits and I want to consolidate these gains without taking to many risks. Any of the above calls not hit today, which get triggered next Monday or Tuesday, I will come back with an updated email for my Platinum Members. Given the volatility I would expect a few updates between now and Wednesday.
Recent Comments