U.S. Equity Markets bounced around to end the week, closing mixed after a quiet trading session, as the S&P closed higher by 0.15% while the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.02%. Markets were little changed throughout much of the day. Investors had a few headlines to digest. The China Evergrande saga continued, with reports that the company had missed its bond payment. And Democrats planned a vote for this week on the $3.5 trillion spending package. In terms of economic data, New Home Sales rose in August and beat estimates. This showed that there is still strong demand for homes. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Friday, saying that the supply-chain issues pushing up prices were a factor that have never been seen before at this magnitude. He added that the tapering of asset purchases will not be a clue for when the central bank will begin raising interest rates. European Markets closed lower. The European Commission confirmed it will move forward with an initial tech-trade summit focusing on semiconductor supply with the U.S. this week in Pittsburgh. Germany’s Ifo Institute for Economic Research said its business climate survey for September showed companies were growing increasingly sceptical about future work. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that many of the causes of the current inflation spike will be temporary. The German Elections were held yesterday, resulting in the Social Democrats narrowly beating Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU to secure a narrow win. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China added roughly $11 billion worth of liquidity to the financial system, bring the total to around $42 billion over the last three days. Markit Japan’s preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for September rose versus August, as service-sector activity rebounded. The Bank of Korea said businesses and households should be able to manage another interest rate hike to 1%, as higher rates would help to maintain financial market stability. Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates unchanged but raised its growth outlook for this year from 5.1% to 5.75%, while boosting its inflation forecast from 1.6% to 1.7%. Elsewhere, Oil rose a further 0.97% as India continued to grow its crude imports, signalling strong demand, while Bitcoin fell 6%, as China moved to ban all crypto-related activities.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 173 points last Friday and is now ahead by 2629 points for September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.15% higher at a price of 4455.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33 points higher for a 0.10% gain at a price of 34,798.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.09% higher at a price of 15,329.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.03% lower at a price of 30,240
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1720.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3662.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $110.70.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.24%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.92%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.45%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.97% higher at $74.01 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1,752 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and this is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm.
December S&P 500
What a difference a week makes for the S&P. Last Monday the S&P traded to a low of 4295 before surging to trade higher at 4468 this morning. Thankfully, after the S&P hit my 4451 sell level, late Friday, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 4446 and I am still flat. The VIX got crushed again on Friday, falling 5% to close at a price of 17.75, well below last Monday’s spike high at 29. However, despite the aggressive move higher over the past week, I am still convinced that we are putting in a more meaningful top. Slower growth and much higher inflation is a major worry. 10 -Year Yields are now back above 1.45%. No Government can afford a rise in Interest Rates given the level of Global Debt. The S&P has strong resistance from 4474/4489 where I will again be a seller with a 4501 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have short-term support from 4410/4425. I will be a small buyer on any dip to this area with a 4398 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1.1645/1.1695 while leaving my 1.1595 stop unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
December Dollar Index
I will now raise my sell level to 93.55/93.95 with a higher 94.31 stop.
December DAX
Frustratingly, the DAX missed my 15460 buy level by 14 points before surging to open higher at 15680 this morning. The DAX has resistance from 15800/15880 where I will be a small seller with a 15955 stop.
December FTSE
Overnight, the FTSE rallied to my 7055 T/P level on my 7030 latest long position and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 6980/7030 where I will again be a buyer with a 6945 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Shortly after the U.S. Markets opened on Friday we saw a small sell-off in the Dow to my 34610 T/P level on my 34660 average short position from Thursday. Thankfully we stayed flat over the weekend with the Dow now trading 400 points higher from Friday’s low at 35000. The Dow has resistance from 35120/35270 where I will be a small seller with a 35405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
December NASDAQ
Late Friday, the NASDAQ traded higher to my 15325 initial sell level before trading lower to my 15312 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the NASDAQ is opening higher at a price of 15380. We have strong resistance from 15440/15520 where I will again be a seller with a 15605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15380.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund from last Thursday at a price of 170.60. I will continue to add to this position on any further drop to 170.10 while leaving my 169.75 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 170.72 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is oversold and due a bounce as shown by the Daily Sentiment Indicator which closed with a reading of 10% bulls on Friday. I will now raise my buy level to 1730/1745 with a higher 1719 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 22.10 buy level before rallying to my 22.45 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, Silver is trading higher at 22.65. We have strong support from 21.80/22.40 where I will again be a buyer with a 21.25 stop.
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