U.S. Equity Markets gained to start the week, reversing all of last week’s losses as both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 made new all-tome highs. The NDX led yesterday’s gains, closing higher by 1.46%. Markets opened higher and rose throughout the day. The big catalyst for this week is the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium at the end of the week in which investors will be watching for any updates on stimulus removal. In other central-bank news, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was said to have told President Joe Biden she would endorse Jerome Powell for another term as Federal Reserve chairman. In terms of economic data, Existing Home Sales posted the second straight month of gains, showing resiliency in the housing market. The Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) announced that Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine had received full approval, which sparked hopes that vaccination rates could pick up once again. European Markets closed higher. Markit Euro-Zone’s preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for August was in line with expectations, falling versus July, as manufacturing growth slowed. European Central Bank Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said that she is more worried about inflation being too low than it being too high, while adding that high vaccination rates will likely mean Europe avoids another hard lockdown. German exports within the European Union are increasingly having to compete with imports from China, according to a study by the Cologne Institute For Economic Research. In Asia, Markit Japan’s preliminary composite PMI data for August fell versus July, as services sector activity declined due to the resurgence in coronavirus infections, while manufacturing held up. Taiwan’s government said it anticipates the global supply versus demand picture for automotive semiconductors to come back into balance in the fourth quarter of this year. South Korea’s preliminary export figure for August rose versus July, driven by demand from the U.S. and China, as global demand for semiconductors and automobiles remained strong. The People’s Bank of China continued to let the yuan weaken, boosting the demand outlook for exporters and economic growth. Elsewhere, Oil surged 5.63%, snapping its losing streak, jumping about $65, while Gold rose 1.27% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 360 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1192 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.85% higher at a price of 4479.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 216 points higher for a 0.61% gain at a price of 35,335.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.46% higher at a price of 15,312.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.87% higher at a price of 27,732
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.1745.
The British Pound closed 1% higher at 1.3735.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $109.85.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.54%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.27%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.63% higher at $65.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.27% higher at $1,803.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Q2 Final GDP which came in at +1.6% versus +1.5% previously. The only other data of note is U.S. New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm.
September S&P 500
Much to my displeasure, the S&P made its 50th all-time high for the year-to-date, as the S&P rallied 120 Handles higher from where we were at 10.30 am on Friday. Last week’s lows came as the 50 Day MA for both the Dow and S&P were tested after just a 2% decline. Why are the dips getting smaller? Because the trendline supporting the S&P is rising steeply and a sustained break would be a technical disaster for the market. In my opinion, the Fed are actively managing this market and being terrified of seeing this trendline break. On top of this, the Volatility Index was on the verge of breaking out above 25 before Dallas Fed President changed his previous views on tapering by kicking the can down the road. Last night the VIX fell a further 8% to close at 17. As long as the Central Banks expand their balance sheets there are no corrections. This has been the theme since 2009 and the only corrections we see is when the CBs pause the balance sheet expansion. The Fed know and are terrified of a massive sell-off, of a break in the trend, hence they want to avoid a ‘’taper tantrum’’ as Kaplan said on Friday which means the same financial imbalances and excesses that threaten the Fed’s goals are to be exacerbated to prevent a tantrum. This implies the risk of a massive sell-off is increasing and not decreasing. The Market is now at an interesting juncture. After 10 weeks of consecutive highs and 10 months of consecutive new highs, it must make new highs every week or the trend breaks. And while the initial trend break even gets bought, the technical consequence would be devastating for this ”everything bubble”. The idea of holding my 4435 short position on Friday went badly yesterday as I was stopped out on the close at 4471 and I am now flat. The S&P has further resistance from 4499/4514 where I will again be a seller with a 4531 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now move my buy level higher to 4437/4452 with a higher 4423 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4487. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4466.
EUR/USD
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1.1670/1.1710 with a higher 1.1625 stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar got hit hard yesterday and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 93.35/93.75 with a lower 94.12 stop.
September DAX
Despite both the NASDAQ and S&P trading at new highs, the DAX is trading unchanged from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. As a result I will now lower my sell level to 15985/16055 with a tight 16110 stop.
September FTSE
Unfortunately, the FTSE just missed my initial 7075 buy level and I am still flat. With Sterling stronger I am reluctant to chase the FTSE higher. In fact, I will now lower my buy level to 7010/7060 with a lower 6975 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow did break and close above 35250, telling us to move our buy level higher. Today, my buy level will be from 35260/35100 with a tight 34985 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
September NASDAQ
The NASDAQ also missed my buy level before surging 1.46%, more than doubling the gain in the Dow. It was the largest one-day rally since July 20, as thankfully we had no sell level in this market yesterday as yet again the NDX closed at a new all-time high. I will now move my buy level higher to 15250/15180 with a higher 15095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 15500/15600 where I will be a small seller with a 15705 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September BUND
I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 177.15/177.55 with a tight 177.91 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1775/1790 with a higher 1763 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to underperform Gold. Silver’s Daily Sentiment Index reading has recorded back-to-back reading of 12% for the first time since March 16-17, 2020, which was two days prior to the March 18, low of $11.62. Silver is due a rally and I will now raise my buy level to 22.80/23.40 with a 22.25 stop.
Recent Comments