Opinion – Tuesday 3 October 2017

There have certainly been some unsettling events over the past 24-48 hours for markets to ponder. First was the unsettling scenes of the forced intervention in the Catalonian independence vote and in the past 24 hours another mass shooting in the US, this one in Las...

Opinion – Monday 2 October 2017

Catalan separatist leaders signalled they may be moving toward a unilateral declaration of independence as early as this week after hundreds of activists were injured yesterday as they sought to stop Spanish police from shutting down an illegal referendum. Catalan...

Opinion – Friday 29 September 2017

It was a story of slight USD weakness yesterday (DXY -0.3%) with little in the way of other significant market moves. Equities were higher (S&P500 +0.1%), Bond Yields were unchanged (US 10-yr Treasuries flat), while the Iron Ore price continues to come under...

Opinion – Thursday 28 September 2017

It has been news filtering out over the past 24 hours of the Trump/Republican tax plan that understandably gathered the attention of markets and gotten US Dollar bulls re-energised. The USD has been stronger, up another 0.48% since the Tokyo close yesterday, US stocks...

Opinion – Wednesday 27 September 2017

Fed chair Janet Yellen spoke last evening and opined that it would be ‘Imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation hits 2%’. We also heard from new Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said he is hearing anecdotes of more pressure on wages and...

Opinion – Tuesday 26 September 2017

A mild risk-off theme quickly emerged shortly after I posted yesterday morning following North Korea’s statement that the US has effectively “declared war” and that North Korea has every right to “make countermeasures”. While the White House has called both statements...

Opinion – Monday 25 September 2017

Hung parliaments on current voting tallies in general elections in New Zealand on Saturday and Germany on Sunday have taken bites out of the NZD and EUR at Monday’s market re-open. The NZ result isn’t much of a surprise and slippage may merely reflect the flip side of...

Opinion – Friday 22 September 2017

The Australian Dollar was the biggest mover in FX yesterday, down 1.2% to 0.7932 in response to dovish headlines from Governor Lowe and another sharp fall in the iron ore price (-5.1%); Australian Bonds also outperformed with 3- year futures up 5-6bps. The market...

Opinion – Thursday 21 September 2017

The FOMC last evening announced as expected the formal start to winding down its balance sheet to commence next month. It left its Fed funds rate unchanged at 1-1.25%, also as entirely expected. While this starts another chapter in what has been a momentous decade...

Opinion – Wednesday 20 September 2017

US President Trump’s 40 minute address to the UN, in which he described N. Korea leader Kim Jong UN as “Rocket man on a suicide mission for himself and his regime” was the highlight of one of the quietest trading sessions so far this year. FX market response to...

Opinion – Tuesday 19 September 2017

Both Sterling and the Canadian Dollar closed lower on the  latest Bank of Canada and Bank of England utterances, helping the US Dollar move ahead again aided too by modestly higher US Treasury yields (10s +2bps to 2.23%). These moves lower saw the Australian Dollar...

Opinion – Monday 18 September 2017

Another day on and Sterling has again been the star performer in the currency markets. Following on from Bank of England Governor Carney’s warning that the BoE might have to adjust policy in coming months, MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe – regarded as dovish untill...

Opinion – Friday 15 September 2017

While the market’s focus was expected to be primarily on the US CPI print for August, there was much more market action across the Atlantic with Sterling soaring on the back of a near term Interest Rate rise warning from the Bank of England. Although the BoE left its...

Opinion – Thursday 14 September 2017

While equity markets had day of consolidation, the USD and US Treasury yields had a decent move higher aided by increasing hopes over US Tax reform. However, nothing concrete has been announced, but there is a growing feeling that something will be done amid Trump’s...