Opinion – Monday 23 October 2017

US Bond Yields ended the NY session on the day’s highs, 10 year treasuries at 2.385%, their highest close since 12th July (they were last above 2.40% on May10th). The US Dollar ended close to the highs, DXY +0.47% to 93.70, its best close since Oct 6th. This was...

Opinion – Friday 20 October 2017

The biggest news yesterday was the finalisation of the New Zealand Government. Labour’s Jacinda Arden will now be the next Prime Minister following NZ First’s deal to form a coalition government. The Kiwi moved sharply on the news and is now down 2% since I marked...

Opinion – Thursday 19 October 2017

Well Winston Peters might be milking it as negotiations to form a new New Zealand Government drag interminably on, but he clearly does need a host to live. The NZD sits close to the bottom of the G10 scoreboard this morning, weighed down not just by ongoing domestic...

Opinion – Wednesday 18 October 2017

The US Dollar has continued to eke out small gains amid ongoing speculation over Fed Chair nomination, US equities are flat (DJ briefly traded above 23k for the first time) and commodities are mixed. The market has recently been focussed on John Taylor who apparently...

Opinion – Tuesday 17 October 2017

It has been a quiet start to the week, but of note the US Dollar is slightly stronger across the board and commodities also had a good trading session. Higher US Treasury Yields have contributed to the USD outperformance and US equities managed to eke out another day...

Opinion – Monday 16 October 2017

It has now been six from seven in terms of core US CPI undershooting expectations (six months at 0.1% including Friday’s September print and just one at the 0.2% consensus estimate that has prevailed for each of these seven months). So core CPI rose by just 0.7% in...

Opinion – Friday 13 October 2017

Yesterday was another trading session marked by generally limited moves in currencies – the Pound the exception – Bond Yields have been steady-to lower on net, equities down smalls with commodities mixed. Oil has given up some of the gains from earlier this week, iron...

Opinion – Thursday 12 October 2017

Tight ranges were seen ahead of the FOMC Minutes release and there has been a fairly muted reaction post. The US Dollar remains on the back foot, US Treasury Yields are still in a tight range and US equities continue to eke out small gains. The Fed remains data...

Opinion – Wednesday 11 October 2017

It has  been a mix of events in the UK (better data), Europe (no immediate declared Catalan independence from Puigdemont) and the US (Trump tax politics and a softer NFIB report) that have provided the background for limited currency moves over the past 24 hours. The...

Opinion Tuesday 10 October 2017

Markets were quiet yesterday given the Columbus Day Holiday in the US. Equities were flat (S&P500 -0.2%), the US Dollar was marginally lower (DXY -0.2%), while the US Bond market was closed (note futures were open but with little movement). Markets it seems are...

Opinion – Monday – 9 October 2017

There was indeed more noise than signal in Friday’s US labour market data. In particular in the 33k fall in employment (more than 200k below recent trends) and a reported jump in average hourly earnings of 0.5% than pulled the annual rate of change up to 2.9% from an...

Opinion – Friday 6 October 2017

After taking a breather, the US Dollar has regained its mojo partly driven by concerns over other currencies along with a supportive domestic backdrop. Sterling has been the big G10 underperformer amid rising political concerns, a theme which has also weighed on EUR...

Opinion – Thursday 5 October 2017

Despite a stellar US Non-Manufacturing ISM, there were only modest market moves over the past 24 hours. The US dollar fell (DXY -0.1%), Equities were mixed (S&P500 +0.1%; EuroStoxx -0.3%), while Bond Yields were flat (US 10yrs +0.4bps). It seems markets are...

Opinion – Wednesday 4 October 2017

President Trump is in Puerto Rico and has been making some fairly tasteless remarks about this unincorporated United States territory putting the US budget ‘out of whack’. Someone should perhaps have reminded him that Puerto Ricans ostensibly have the right to...