U.S. Indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, with the NASDAQ the clear laggard as the recent weakness in Technology continued. The Tech sector fell around 2%, weighing on both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while the Dow Jones was the only major index to finish in positive territory. The Russell 2000 also saw notable selling pressure. Sector performance was broadly positive outside of Technology, with Financials and Industrials leading gains and helping support the Dow. The pressure in Technology comes after several sessions of profit-taking in AI-related names. The weakness in mega-cap and semiconductor names outweighed the broader improvement in risk sentiment stemming from developments in the Middle East. Energy prices continued to slump in the wake of the US-Iran agreement. Further downside was seen after reports that QatarEnergy expects to restore half of its LNG output within a month of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, with production expected to reach 80% of capacity within two months. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the US will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel exports under the agreement, adding further pressure to the crude complex. While some details of the deal remain disputed by Iranian media, the broad direction of travel points towards increased energy supply and a gradual normalisation of flows through Hormuz. The full agreement is expected to be released when formally signed on Friday. In FX, the Dollar softened modestly alongside lower Treasury yields as declining energy prices helped ease inflation concerns. Both the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar were little changed following their respective central bank decisions (BoJ 25bps hike, RBA hold), which matched expectations, while US data had a limited impact despite a sharp decline in housing starts and firmer-than-expected import and export prices. Treasuries broadly tracked the collapse in oil prices, with yields moving lower across the curve as investors pared inflation risk premia. Market focus is now firmly on Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s first press conference. The USD 13 billion 20-year bond auction was notably strong, although it generated little reaction in Treasury futures while, SpaceX (SPCX) continued its recent rally and overtook Amazon (AMZN) in market capitalisation. Housing starts for May tumbled 15.4% M/M to 1.177 million from 1.392 million, way beneath the expected 1.430 million. Single-family starts fell 1.9% and multi-family plunged 40.2%. Building permits fell 0.7% to 1.413 million from 1.423 million, but also shy of the forecasted 1.420 million. Single-family permits rose 0.6% with multi-family down 2.8%. Oxford Economics writes that just as the pace of housing starts in March and April overstated the strength in housing activity, the plunge in May overstates any weakness, as the decline in starts was mostly due to a 40% dive fall in the multifamily sector, where, based on permits, some rebound is likely in June. Ahead, OxEco expects starts to move sideways until later in the year when they expect lower mortgage rates in response to easing inflation and Fed rate cuts to spur both home sales and starts. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 5% while Gold was basically flat.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 275 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5382 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.57% lower at a price of 7511.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 331 points higher for a 0.64% gain at a price of 52,002.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.89% lower at a price of 29,968.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.25% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.79% higher at a price of 69,954.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% lower.
The Euro closed 0.03% higher at $1.1605.
The British Pound closed 0.02% lower at $1.3422.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.11% closing at $160.46.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 4.80%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.93%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.44%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.61% lower at $77.03 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.54% higher at $4332.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we already have the release of U.K. CPI which rose 0.2% versus +0.4% expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. This is followed by a speech from President Trump at 2.00 pm and Pending Home Sales and Business Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm and Fed Chair Warsh first press conference at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The big event this evening is the FOMC Statement, and I think it is a meeting that could catch the market a little offside with a more hawkish stance. It helps to frame where we are coming from. At the March meeting under Jay Powell, the projections had median dots (the FOMC’s rate-path forecast) at 3.4% for 2026, with the cutting cycle leveling off around 3.1% into early 2027. Markets have repriced a lot since then. Fed Funds Futures are now trading around 3.80% for 2026, 3.90% for 2027, and 4.05% for 2028. That basically removes the rate-cut bias that was built into the projections and tilts the conversation toward hikes. I would also expect a change in the Statement that drops the easing bias and shifts the emphasis away from the labor market and back toward inflation. And inflation is the part that has gotten more interesting, because it has stopped being only an oil story. Core CPI (prices excluding food and energy) is running around 3.1% to 3.2% on a three- and six-month basis and 2.8% over the past year — which means the one-year number probably keeps drifting higher until the monthly pace rolls over. Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) tells the same story, around 3.8% on a three- and six-month basis and 3.3% year over year. It shows up even in the measures that strip out the outliers. Trimmed mean PCE (an inflation measure that throws out the biggest movers each month, and one Kevin Warsh has pointed to) is running around 2.3%, and the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean CPI is around 2.9%. The lesson from 2021 is that the trimmed-mean measures were slow to catch up while core PCE was leading higher, and core PCE peaked first — and in 2019 and 2020, you never would have gotten rate cuts on the trimmed mean alone. If this were all oil, you would not see core running this hot on a three- and six-month basis, especially since oil did not really start moving until March. Goods prices have a lot to do with it: they have swung from negative to about 4.4% year over year, and that is feeding the readings. At the same time, the labour market looks like it is turning. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has swung back above one and has been making higher highs and higher lows since December, and the payroll data, ADP, and Revelio Labs are all pointing the same way — a labour market that probably bottomed late last year and is turning higher. That gives the Fed room to take its focus off employment and put it on inflation. So, I would not be surprised if Wednesday’s dots show the unemployment rate ticking down and the inflation projections moving up for this year and next. TBD. My 7552 average short S&P position worked well as the market sold off to my 7537 T/P level and I am now flat. As I mentioned on Monday, we have a huge ‘Open Gap’ from 7431/7508 and it will be interesting to see if any of this gap is filled following the Fed and Warsh this evening. I will be a strong buyer from 7440/7465 with a 7419 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7560/7585 where I will again be a seller with a wider 7615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7497. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7528. If these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. The Euro has support below from 1.1440/1.1520 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1.1365 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1580. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar from last week at a price of 99.70. I will now lower my T/P level to 100.05. I will continue to look to add to this position at 99.00 with the same 98.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as the Russell never came close to Tuesday’s sell range. Today, I will lower my sell level to 2980/3050 with a lower 3115 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2935.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. Better than expected UK inflation data this morning sees the FTSE trading higher at a price of 10490, as I go to post. The FSTE has resistance from 10570/10670 where I will be a seller with a 10755 ‘Closing Stop. Meanwhile, I will be a small buyer on any dip lower to 10290/10370 with a higher 10195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10505. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10440. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged on Tuesday, closing at a new all-time high. This move higher saw my sell level hit for a now 52060 short position. I will add to this trade at 52360 while raising my T/P level to 51850. I will leave my 52605 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The Fed is widely expected to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. Economists largely expect rates to remain on hold this year, with 72 of 102 respondents in a Reuters survey conducted between June 4th and 9th seeing no rate changes through end-2026. Money market pricing had, at one stage, fully priced a rate hike by year-end amid firmer oil prices during the Iran conflict, above-target inflation, and a resilient labour market following the strong May Nonfarm Payrolls Report. However, with the US and Iran subsequently reaching an agreement to end the conflict, which is set to be signed on Friday, and oil prices retracing sharply from their highs, markets have pared some of those expectations and currently price around 18bps of tightening by year-end, implying a 72% probability of a 25bps hike. The vote split on rates is expected to be unanimous, particularly with former Governor Miran no longer on the Board and Kevin Warsh now serving as Chair. Bank of America does not expect Warsh to advocate for a rate cut at his first meeting. The NDX was weak on Tuesday, closing lower by almost 2%. This sell-off saw the NDX hit my revised 30250 T/P level on my latest 30375 average short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 30350/30550 with a higher 30705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 30130. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
Lower Bond Yields saw the Bund trade higher to my 126.70 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this position at 127.50 while leaving my 128.05 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 126.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: The Gold rally stalled at the 20-day exponential moving average (4390) on Monday, which has acted as resistance since mid-May. A failure to break above that moving average would likely lead to even lower Gold prices. I am still flat. Today, I will again be a small buyer on any further move lower to 4120/4220 with a lower 4035 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4305.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded heavy again on Tuesday and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 63.00/66.00 with the same 61.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 68.20. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments