U.S. Indexes closed green on Tuesday, with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 driven by strength in the tech sector, while Industrials also rallied. Performance was more mixed elsewhere, however, with the equal-weight S&P 500 closing flat. There was no obvious catalyst behind the move, although quarter-end rebalancing may have provided support. Oil prices sold off throughout the session, with WTI trading on the USD 69.00/barrel handle and Brent on the USD 72.00/barrel handle, although little emerged from the mediated US-Iran discussions. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf spoke after settlement, striking a largely negative tone by stressing that passage through the Strait of Hormuz would only remain toll-free for 60 days and that Iran is prepared to return to war if necessary. He also suggested Iran is selling its oil at a 20% premium. T-notes were lower across the curve with no obvious catalyst, although the latest JOLTS report reinforced the narrative of a resilient labour market ahead of Thursday’s NFP report. Treasury Secretary Bessent also touted the upcoming payrolls report as likely to be strong—just as he did ahead of the May release—while claiming he has not seen the data. In FX, the Dollar was little changed, but the Japanese Yen continued to underperform, with USD/JPY hitting fresh multi-decade highs of 162.66 and keeping participants on intervention watch. The pair then saw a sharp intraday decline without any obvious headline catalyst, potentially reflecting a rate check, although the move was quickly pared. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed as equities rallied through the session. Looking ahead, attention turns to the Sintra central bank panel featuring BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde and BoC Governor Macklem, before Thursday’s NFP report in the holiday-shortened week. US job openings were broadly unchanged at 7.594 million in May (exp. 7.280 million, prev. 7.618 million revised to 7.561 million), remaining above expectations, while the vacancy rate held steady at 4.6%. Hires fell marginally to 5.17 million from 5.2 million, total separations ticked up slightly to 5.1 million from 5.04 million, quits were steady around 3.05 million with the quits rate unchanged at 1.9%, and layoffs and discharges rose slightly to 1.7 million from 1.67 million. Within the details, job openings increased in wholesale trade, while hires rose in the federal government and layoffs and discharges declined in arts, entertainment and recreation. April job openings were revised down by 33k, while hires and quits were revised higher. Pantheon Macroeconomics argues the report still paints an unconvincing picture of improving labour demand, noting that while professional and business services job openings were revised sharply lower, upward revisions in healthcare and leisure and hospitality largely offset the decline. Pantheon adds that May’s headline masked notable sectoral shifts, with a sharp fall in healthcare openings offset by gains in manufacturing, construction and distribution. The consultancy also stresses that too few businesses participate to take the data seriously. US consumer confidence for June rose to 91.2 from 90.6, but beneath the expected 94.4. The Expectations index lifted to 74.4 (exp. 75.2, prev. 71.4), while the Present situation index fell to 116.4 (exp. 123.0, prev. 119.4). Within the report, consumers’ views of current business conditions improved, but views of the labour market worsened; 24.9% said jobs were ‘plentiful’ 24.9% (prev. 24.8%), but 22.5% said jobs were ‘hard to get’ (prev. 19.8%). Ahead, consumers were more optimistic about future business conditions, as they were for their income prospects. Chief Economist Peterson added, “Consumer confidence inched up as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears”. She added, “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.” Note, the survey period for this month’s preliminary results was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 45 points yesterday to end June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.79% higher at a price of 7499.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 136 points higher for a 0.26% gain at a price of 52,319.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.68% higher at a price of 30,276.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.88% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.59% higher at a price of 70,474.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.08% higher.
The Euro closed 0.01% lower at $1.1421.
The British Pound closed 0.02% higher at $1.3255.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.41% closing at $162.58.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points higher at 4.77%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.91%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 4.44%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.09% lower at $69.98 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.10% higher at $4027.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. At 1.15 pm we have ADP Employment Change. This is followed by a speech by Fed Chair Warsh at 2.00 pm and Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday, the 3-month implied correlation index finished at 7.8, just a tick above the 7.63 low it reached on July 3, 2024. Based on this, implied volatility for single stocks appears to be unrelated to the S&P 500. What is particularly interesting is that on July 3, 2024, USD/JPY reached 160.71, effectively marking the high for the exchange rate. It fell for a couple of days, then returned to test that high again, only to fail. The rest, of course, is history. The yen then strengthened materially across multiple currency pairs, and implied correlation rose just as quickly. I do not think this is happening by chance. I think there is a good chance this reflects the yen carry trade. In fact, if you take the 3-month implied correlation index and compare it with USD/JPY, the relationship is quite stunning over a 52-week lookback. The inverse relationship has remained very steady, though it has decoupled slightly more recently. It is not to say that the yen carry trade is all going into the stock market, but a good portion of it could be contributing to this. At some point, the relationship will shift, as it has in the past, which could be especially true if it is no longer so much about the yen but more about the US Dollar. Right now, the Dollar is strengthening against multiple currencies, and it is clear that the driver of the weaker yen is not so much Japanese policy as Dollar strength. This could prove to be crucial to that conversation, especially with Kevin Warsh speaking this afternoon at the ECB Forum and the jobs report on Thursday. A lot could change between now and then, that is for sure. The S&P closed on Tuesday by 0.8% before falling 40 Handles overnight on fears as to what happens in Sintra when the Central Bank Leaders speak at 2.00 pm. Yesterday’s rally saw the S&P hit my second sell level at 7474 for a 7461 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 7452 as I want to try an be flat ahead of Warsh’s speech. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1485 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my sell level unchanged at 101.60/102.30 with the same 103.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 101.10.
Russell 2000
The Russell has led the main American Index rally for 2026, with a 21% gain. This is the best six months for the Russell Index since 1991. I am still short at a price of 3015 with the same 2970 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 3085 while leaving my 3155 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to Tuesday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 10330/10400 with a higher 10265 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10470.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow missed Tuesday’s sell level by just 30 points before having a small sell-off into the close. I am not going to chase the Dow lower as I continue to be a seller on any further rally to 52460/52760 with the same 52955 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52180.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! The NDX surged on Tuesday, tagging on 4.5% over the past two trading sessions. This move higher saw me stop myself out of Monday’s 29830 average short position at a price of 30105 and I am now flat. With the RSI closing at 56 there is plenty of room for the NDX to move higher. Incredibly, despite the markets at or near all-time highs, the Fear & Greed Index closed weak with a 30 print last night. This is another reason why the NDX may rise further from here. The NDX has support below from 29600/29800 where I will be a buyer with a 29395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 30030. I no longer want to be short the NDX at this time.
December BUND
The Bund has not moved since Friday. I am still short the Bund from last week at a price of 127.35. I will add to this trade at 128.15 while leaving 128.85 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 126.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still long Gold at an average rate of 4068 with the same 3945 ‘Closing Stop’. Gold is trading heavy this morning. Just like the Euro above I have had this position too long. I will now lower my exit level on this position to 4050. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 57.40 long Silver position worked well as the market rallied to my 59.70 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 53.50/56.50 with a lower 50.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 59.80.
Recent Comments