U.S. Indexes closed green on Tuesday, with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 driven by strength in the tech sector, while Industrials also rallied. Performance was more mixed elsewhere, however, with the equal-weight S&P 500 closing flat. There was no obvious catalyst behind the move, although quarter-end rebalancing may have provided support. Oil prices sold off throughout the session, with WTI trading on the USD 69.00/barrel handle and Brent on the USD 72.00/barrel handle, although little emerged from the mediated US-Iran discussions. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf spoke after settlement, striking a largely negative tone by stressing that passage through the Strait of Hormuz would only remain toll-free for 60 days and that Iran is prepared to return to war if necessary. He also suggested Iran is selling its oil at a 20% premium. T-notes were lower across the curve with no obvious catalyst, although the latest JOLTS report reinforced the narrative of a resilient labour market ahead of Thursday’s NFP report. Treasury Secretary Bessent also touted the upcoming payrolls report as likely to be strong—just as he did ahead of the May release—while claiming he has not seen the data. In FX, the Dollar was little changed, but the Japanese Yen continued to underperform, with USD/JPY hitting fresh multi-decade highs of 162.66 and keeping participants on intervention watch. The pair then saw a sharp intraday decline without any obvious headline catalyst, potentially reflecting a rate check, although the move was quickly pared. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed as equities rallied through the session. Looking ahead, attention turns to the Sintra central bank panel featuring BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde and BoC Governor Macklem, before Thursday’s NFP report in the holiday-shortened week. US job openings were broadly unchanged at 7.594 million in May (exp. 7.280 million, prev. 7.618 million revised to 7.561 million), remaining above expectations, while the vacancy rate held steady at 4.6%. Hires fell marginally to 5.17 million from 5.2 million, total separations ticked up slightly to 5.1 million from 5.04 million, quits were steady around 3.05 million with the quits rate unchanged at 1.9%, and layoffs and discharges rose slightly to 1.7 million from 1.67 million. Within the details, job openings increased in wholesale trade, while hires rose in the federal government and layoffs and discharges declined in arts, entertainment and recreation. April job openings were revised down by 33k, while hires and quits were revised higher. Pantheon Macroeconomics argues the report still paints an unconvincing picture of improving labour demand, noting that while professional and business services job openings were revised sharply lower, upward revisions in healthcare and leisure and hospitality largely offset the decline. Pantheon adds that May’s headline masked notable sectoral shifts, with a sharp fall in healthcare openings offset by gains in manufacturing, construction and distribution. The consultancy also stresses that too few businesses participate to take the data seriously. US consumer confidence for June rose to 91.2 from 90.6, but beneath the expected 94.4. The Expectations index lifted to 74.4 (exp. 75.2, prev. 71.4), while the Present situation index fell to 116.4 (exp. 123.0, prev. 119.4). Within the report, consumers’ views of current business conditions improved, but views of the labour market worsened; 24.9% said jobs were ‘plentiful’ 24.9% (prev. 24.8%), but 22.5% said jobs were ‘hard to get’ (prev. 19.8%). Ahead, consumers were more optimistic about future business conditions, as they were for their income prospects. Chief Economist Peterson added, “Consumer confidence inched up as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears”. She added, “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.” Note, the survey period for this month’s preliminary results was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 45 points yesterday to end June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments