U.S. Indexes were choppy on Monday while energy prices and Gold were bid with T-notes bear flattening and the U.S. Dollar firmer in response to the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, the US struck Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Khamenei, with Iran responding by hitting US bases across the Middle East, but also by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening that ships that cross the Strait will be fired upon. The initial reaction saw stocks open lower while T-notes caught a bid, with energy prices surging. Oil remained bid but saw slight selling around the closing bell as Secretary of State Rubio said that Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce measures to mitigate oil costs on Tuesday. Natural Gas rocketed on the geopolitical tensions but surged even further after QatarEnergy announced it is to stop the production of LNG, due to military attacks on operating facilities in Ras Laffan industrial city and Mesaieed industrial city. T-notes reversed the upside throughout the session as higher energy prices bolstered inflationary concerns. Stocks also clawed back the losses to ultimately close mixed, with the Russell rallying, while other US indices were flat. In FX, the Dollar was bid to the detriment of peers while other havens lacked appeal (JPY on loose fiscal policy, while SNB said today its readiness to intervene in FX is currently higher). Gold remained firmer but settled well off its earlier highs, while Silver pared its initial gains. Elsewhere, US data saw a strong ISM Manufacturing PMI report, albeit the prices paid component surged higher. Overall, the headline ISM rose to 52.4 in February, down from January’s 52.6 and above the expected decline to 51.8. The headline was within the analyst forecast range of 50.0 to 53.2. The headline was primarily bolstered by a surge in the prices paid component, which rose to 70.5 from 59 in January, marking the highest level since June 2022. Backlog of orders rose 5 points to 56.6, the highest read since May 2022. Meanwhile, Employment rose to 48.8 from 48.1. Meanwhile, New Orders fell to 55.8 from 57.1, while Production fell to 53.5 from 55.9%. The report notes that three demand indicators are in expansion. Regarding the chunky move higher in prices, all of the six largest manufacturing indices reported price increases in February “The Prices Index reading continues to be driven by increases in steel and aluminium prices that impact the entire value chain, as well as tariffs applied to many imported goods”. Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight the jump in Prices Paid is due to the near 30% run-up in oil prices since the start of the year. The desk adds that “The prices received components of the other major manufacturing surveys continue to paint a much more reassuring picture of core goods inflation, suggesting a significant easing in price pressures by around the middle of this year as tariff pass-through continues to fade”. In the wake of the report, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 ’26 was unchanged at 3.0%. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 6% ad Gold by 1%. However, both Commodities closed well below intra-day highs.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1065 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1455 points for March having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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