US Indices were choppy as participants digested as the repercussions from President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair last Friday would mean. That assessment is likely to continue for some time until Warsh issues a more up-to-date view on current conditions, given his lack of appearances in recent times. Warsh has been viewed as hawkish in the past on his approach to the balance sheet, showing concerns over QE, while in 2025, he advocated for lower rates. Eventually markets closed higher on Monday, with most sectors also in the green, as Consumer Staples and Industrials led the way. Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate were the only ones in the red, with the former weighed on by losses in excess of a 5% fall in Crude and Brent. Energy was heavily sold as the US/Iran rhetoric seemingly eased, after weeks of escalating tension. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Iran was “seriously talking”, after Tehran’s top security official Larijani said arrangements for negotiations were underway. In more recent updates, Axios reported that a senior US official said the US-Iran meeting on Friday will focus on trying to reach a “package deal” that would prevent war with Iran. In a continuation of Friday’s trade after Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, the Dollar saw strength to the detriment of G10s peers, as the Swiss Franc led the losses. GBP, AUD, and NZD were the relative outperformers, albeit still saw weakness ahead of the RBA overnight. Gold and Silver continued on losses from Friday as the debasement trade took a backfoot; Gold fell 4.5% to ~USD 4,670 while silver dropped by 6% to ~USD 80/oz. Treasuries were weaker across the curve, with the short-end underperforming after a hot ISM Manufacturing reading. We also got the refunding estimates ahead of QRA on Wednesday, whereby the US Treasury expects to borrow USD 574 billion in Q1 (previous 578 billion, expected 550 billion), sees end cash balance of USD 850 billion; to borrow USD 109 billion in Q2, sees end cash balance of USD 900 billion. In terms of stock-specific stories, NVIDIA (-2.9%) saw weakness as the Wall Street Journal flags doubts over Cost. USD 100 billion OpenAI investment, while Oracle (ORCL) plans to raise between USD 45-50 billion (in debt and equity) to expand its Cloud infrastructure. Material names saw notable strength as Trump launches a USD 12 billion mineral stockpile to counter China. Looking at the week ahead, there are central bank decisions (RBA, BoE, ECB, Banxico) and earnings (GOOGL, QCOM, AMZN), while on the data footing the BLS will not release the January jobs report on Friday due to the partial US Government shutdown; December JOLTS (due 3rd Feb) has also been postponed. ISM Manufacturing for January rose to 52.6 from 47.9, above the expected 48.5 and outside the top end of the forecast range, as it rose back into expansionary territory. Employment and new orders jumped to 48.1 (prev. 44.9) and 57.1 (prev. 47.7), respectively, with prices paid at 59.0 (exp. 60.5, prev. 58.5), and also production, supplier deliveries, and inventories all improved. Highlighting the stellar report, the headline registered the fastest pace of expansion in over three years, new orders came in strong, backlog of orders rose, and low customer inventories suggested there will be momentum in the sector. However, Oxford Economics notes that comments remained downbeat, with policy uncertainty the largest drag on sentiment. This uncertainty is bleeding through to employment, which is lagging the demand indicators, with a continued use of layoffs in addition to attrition. Last Friday we got the latest PPI Report. Core and Headline PPI were notably hotter-than-expected in December. Core M/M rose 0.7% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.0%), Y/Y rose 3.3% (exp. 2.9%, prev. 3.0%). Headline M/M rose 0.5% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.2%), Y/Y rose 3.0% (prev. 3.0%). Supercore M/M rose 0.4%, accelerating from November’s 0.2% with the Y/Y reading unchanged at 3.5%. Looking at the PCE components, changes were mixed. Portfolio Management accelerated 2.0% from 1.4% due to stock market gains; Physician Care and Nursing Home care were unchanged at 0.1% and 0.2% respectively; Scheduled domestic passenger air transport rebounded, +2.5% (prev. -2.4%). Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that there were no major surprises among the PPI components that feed into the PCE. The firm forecasts core PCE inflation increasing to 3.0% in December from November’s 2.8%. As a reminder, Fed Chair Powell at the post-FOMC press conference said that December core PCE inflation was likely around 3.0% and headline around 2.9%. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold ended Monday’s volatile trading session with a 5% while Natural Gas was slammed ending the session a 28% loss.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1145 points yesterday on the first trading session for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.54% higher at a price of 6976.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 515 points higher for a 1.05% gain at a price of 49,407.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.73% higher at a price of 25,738.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.03% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 3.92% higher at a price of 54,720.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.60% higher.
The Euro closed 0.53% lower at $1.1785.
The British Pound closed 0.23% lower at $1.3652.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.56% closing at $155.65
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.51%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.87%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.27%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.95% lower at $1.98 a barrel.
Gold closed 4.05% lower at $4690.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we Have the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 9.00 am, followed by speeches from Fed Members Barkin and Bowman at 1.00 pm and 2.40 pm respectively. Finally, we have JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the aggressive intra-day sell-off on both Friday and Monday buyers have turned up and reversed these losses with the S&P now trading very close to all-time highs at a price of 6996 this morning. I think the most important takeaway right now is that liquidity conditions are quietly tightening, even though many investors seem focused on price levels rather than funding dynamics. Treasury settlements and a rising TGA are steadily draining reserves, and the Fed’s balance sheet expansion has been too slow to offset that pressure. To me, this is not a supportive backdrop for risk assets. I am also watching Bitcoin closely because I believe it tends to lead broader equity markets, particularly the NASDAQ, by a few weeks. When reserves fall, Bitcoin usually struggles first, and that weakness often shows up later in equities. If that relationship holds, it suggests that the recent softness in Bitcoin could be an early warning rather than an isolated move. Bitcoin has now fallen to its lowest price level since November 2024 and is trading at $78,000 as I go to post. I am increasingly concerned about market structure. The violent moves we have seen in silver, software stocks, and private equity names highlight how leverage through options, ETFs, and leveraged ETFs can quickly unwind. I think this makes markets more vulnerable than many realise, especially if a larger, more systemically important asset experiences a similar shock. For this reason I will continue to be a seller of rallies. This year the risks for investors will rise significantly in my opinion. For all the reasons that I have given so far over the past few months, this market is so overvalued and so overextended as it has been since 1929. Trading volumes continued to decline during the recent rise which is another warning sign of an imminent top. The fact that Silver could fall over 20% in 17 minutes as it did on Friday shows you the leverage that we have in a number of asset classes. My S&P plan since Thursday has worked well. Shortly after I posted the S&P hit my 6980 T/P level on my latest 7000 short position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again which we did early yesterday morning at an average rate of 6855 before rallying to my 6901 T/P level. Incredibly the S&P rallied over 140 Handles off Monday’s 6838 low print to my next sell level at 6980 before trading lower to my revised 6968 T/P level and I am now flat. With precious metals higher by 5% this morning the S&P is now trading at 6996 as I go to post. We have short-term resistance from 7015/7040 where I will again be a seller with a higher 7055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6992.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro never came close to Thursday sell range and is now trading 150 points lower from when I last marked prices. The Euro has support below from 1.1680/1.1750 where I will be a buyer with a 1.1615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1825.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 96.75 T/P level on my latest 96.30 average long position and I am still flat. This morning the Dollar is trading at 97.40. We have support below from 96.00/96.80 where I will again be a buyer with the 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 97.30.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as the Russell never came close to Thursday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 2680/2750 with a lower 2805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2640.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to ignore the volatility in the American Indexes as it makes one new high after another which in all honesty makes no sense to me. After the market traded higher to my second sell level at 10260 for a 10220 average short position, the FTSE thankfully dropped to my 10140 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to re sell the FTSE and I am now short at an average rate of 10315 with a 10425 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 10265. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just like the other American Indexes the Dow has traded in a wide range over the past three trading sessions. My ‘Nothing Matters’ theme shows no sign of ending any time soon as traders continue to aggressively buy the dip. Shortly after I posted on Thursday the Dow traded higher to my 49250 T/P level on my latest 48980 long position and I am still flat. Subsequently, the Dow fell 1200 points before recouping all of these points to close higher on Monday. As I go to post the Dow is trading at a price of 49450. We have short-term resistance from 49800/50100 where I will be a small seller with a 50305 ‘Closing Stop’. I will not chase the Dow from here preferring to wait for a dip before re-buying. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 49560.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX dropped 1000 points since Thursday’s Daily Commentary posted. I am still flat as my sell level was never threatened and I had no buy level. With valuations at nosebleed levels I am reluctant to chase the market higher, preferring to sell rallies. Today, I will lower my sell level to 26050/26250 with a lower 26405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25890. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund has traded in a narrow range since Thursday. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 126.70/127.50 with the same 126.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.05.
Gold Rolling Contract
Thankfully, we have stayed away from trading Gold for most of 2026. Corrections in Gold are often steep especially when assisted by special interest. Investors must be prepared. Many try to trade such corrections but are usually unsuccessful. Gold hit a high above $5600 on Friday before falling $1200. This move lower wiped out $5 trillion. This morning, Gold is trading 5% higher at a price of $4920. We have support from 4550/4630 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4395 ‘Closing Stop’. Given the volatility, both Gold and Silver may not be for everyone. Due to the wide stops I will only be trading in very small size. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5010. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Incredible volatility in Silver since Thursday’s Daily Commentary was posted. Having hit a new all-time high above $120, Silver fell 31% on Friday and in the process wiped out $2 trillion in value. Most of this decline happened in just 17 minutes. Before Friday’s plunge, Silver was up 65% for the month of January. The last time such a gain happened was in 1979 when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the world’s Silver market. It is possible that the current Silver crash was also instigated by the big money interests, who were heavily short and needed to produce a silver crash to save certain big banks that were heavily short as I wrote about two weeks ago. The recent silver upsurge was causing big short sellers billions in losses. The fact that silver plunged as much as 36% intraday on Friday does not erase the big reason that drove silver prices higher in the first place: namely the silver shortage. There are huge silver shortages because the high demand for silver for AI hardware, EVs, solar panels and many other electronics. With no actual way to produce more silver quickly, except to mine most of it, most of which is a byproduct of other metal mining, the long-term prospects for silver are bullish. Some of the largest banks were bleeding with their large short positions in both Gold and Silver. Reportedly, JP Morgan closed out 3.17 million ounces of short silver positions at an average price of $78.66/oz on Friday and is one of the main reasons that Silver bottomed that day. I know that Silver hit a low of $71.40 early Monday morning but to me anywhere near current prices is a good risk/reward buy in small size. Silver has support from 74.20/78.20 where I will be a buyer with a wide 71.50 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 84.30. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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