Just after we posted yesterday, the German IFO Survey came out and again disappointed expectations with the headline number down by nearly a point indicating a continuation of softening throughout the September quarter. The headline index of 101.4 versus expectations of 102.8 was at the lowest since February 2010 with the survey pointing to a near stagnant if not slightly contracting economy this quarter. The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -0.9 after -1.6 the previous month. The Managing Director of the IMF, Lagarde says a financing gap has emerged in Greece that won’t be solved by the proposed €11.5billion of budget savings and says the debt will have to be addressed as part of the equation. Largarde also flags a slight lowering of IMF Growth forecasts for next month.
Later this morning we have German Consumer Confidence Index followed in the the US, by two separate updates on the housing market. We also have the Consumer Board’s measure of Consumer Confidence and a follow up Regional Manufacturing Index from the Richmond Fed. The FED’s Plosser, a hawk, is also speaking today.
Dec S&P 500
A very quiet day yesterday for the S&P. The market rallied overnight to reach my profit target of 1455 on my 1448 long from yesterday morning and I am now flat. Today I am going to lower my sell level to the 1457/1462 with a 1463 stop and I will still look to go long from 1445/1449 with the same 1443 stop on any long.
Dec DAX
The DAX traded down to my buy level after the weak IFO number and I went long at 7400. I took profit early this morning at 7440 and I am now flat. Today I will lower my buy area to the 7370/7390 level with a 7350 stop. As I said yesterday I do not want to be short at this time.
Dec FTSE
No change, as I am still long from yesterday morning at 5810. I will raise my stop to 5785 which is just below yesterdays low and if I am stopped out I will look to reset my long position on any dip back to the 5740 level with a tight 5720 stop.
Nov Crude
Crude, after three days, finally traded down to my buy zone of 9080/9120 and I went long at 9110 and I took profit this morning at 9200. As you know I like to leave limit orders in the market and I have had the Crude order in for the last three days and it worked very nicely this morning. Crude is still very oversold and I will look to reset my long position from 9070/9100 with a tight 9040 stop which is just below last weeks low.
Euro/USD
Just after I posted yesterday I was stopped out of my 1.2940 long at 1.2910 and I am now flat. I am very surprised at how weak the Euro is this morning and the next major support is at 1.2850. I will look to go long in front of 1.2850 with a 1.2820 stop. A break and close below 1.2800 will be short term bearish.
Dec BUND
I was stopped out of my 140.30 short at 140.40 yesterday and I am now flat. This morning I will look to go long the Bund on any dip to the 140.40/140.60 area with a stop below this morning’s low at 140.30.
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