With the whole of North America on holiday (albeit US stock markets were open) it has been a predictably quiet past 24 hours for trading. Currencies have again proved to be somewhat livelier than stocks or (European) bond markets, though Bond Yields have pushed lower in the latter while US stocks again closed with small gains across the board. Earlier European stock finished mostly in the red, albeit only down smalls.
For anybody following my new Platinum Service it made 70 points yesterday and is now ahead by 340 points for October. The previous four months saw gains of 2833, 2195, 1810 and 3045 points respectively.
In currencies it is again the NZD and AUD that feature at the top of the G10 leadership board (in AUD’s case matched by the Swedish Krone where both are up 0.33% since Friday). NZD has punched back above 0.67 having languished just below for much of Monday’s local session (high of 0.6740) while the AUD has made new highs on this run-up from 0.6937 since 29 September, printing 0.7382 and which leaves it currently sitting on its 100 day moving average. The AUD should continue to strengthen especially as the Chinese RMB is continuing to firm. USD/CNY is down 0.34% since Friday.
Fed-speak has again been thick on the ground. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart downplayed the impact of China’s slowdown on the US though he did admit a link via the negative impact of China on Europe. He re-iterates that the October (29th) meeting is ‘live’ and says markets appear to be misaligned with the Fed over ‘lift-off’ before going on to say he doesn’t think it is too series.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans now has mid-2016 as his preferred lift-off date and repeats what he said at the weekend, that a sub-1% Fed Funds rate may be appropriate by end-2016. In September 2013 Evans wanted no rate hike until late 2015; in March 2015 not before early 2016, and now he thinks mid-2016 is best. Watch this space.
Also to note is that Oil has had a really bad day yesterday, with Nymex and Brent crude both off over $2 on news that OPEC production just hit a new 3-year high.
European Markets are opening lower this morning following the 1.1% fall in the Japanese Nikkei.
Overnight we had the latest Chinese Trade Data which was again ugly. This morning we already had the final German CPI m/m for September which printed as expected at -0.2%. At 9.30 am we have UK CPI and PPI. This is followed at 10.00 am by the latest German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. Finally at 3.00 pm we have the US NFIB Small Business Optimism. This afternoon the Fed’s Bullard will speak to the NABE in Washington.
December S&P 500
The S&P plan finally worked well this morning as shortly after the US Markets re-opened last night the S&P traded higher to my 2013 sell level before having a nice sell-off this morning which enabled me to cover this position at my 2006 T/P level as outlined earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Despite the US Stock markets again closing higher yesterday, internally the market continues to weaken as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed at +248 down from +281 on Friday and +303 last Thursday. Today I will again look to short the market on any rally higher to 2014/2020 with a 2025 stop. Again if I am taken short and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive seller in front of 2032 with a 2038 stop. I still do not want to be long the market at this time especially with the start of Earnings Reports.
EUR/USD
No change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 1.1300/1.1340 with the same 1.1260 as the market just missed my upper buy level overnight with a 1.1344 low print.
December Dollar Index
With the US Banks closed for the Columbus Day Holiday yesterday trading was very quiet with the Dollar basically trading in a very narrow range over the past 24 hours. I am still flat and today I will leave my sell level unchanged at 95.30/95.60 with the same 95.90 stop.
December DAX
Unfortunately the DAX just missed my 10200 sell level with a 10185 high shortly after I posted yesterday morning and as a result I am still flat the market. Today I will lower my sell level slightly to 10190/10240 with a 10270 stop. Despite the positive price action over the past eight days I do not want to be long the market at this time as the DAX has a lot of overhead resistance.
December FTSE
Yesterday was the quietest trading session for the FTSE in nearly two months. I am still flat and today I will lower my sell level to 6380/6410 with a 6430 stop. I will also lower my buy level to 6260/6290 with a 6240 stop.
December BUND
This morning the BUND has opened higher with the market eventually hitting my 156.50 sell level. I am still short and today I will lower my stop on this position to 156.80. I will still be a small buyer on any dip lower to 155.40/155.70 with a 155.15 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Unfortunately Gold is opening lower this morning. I am still long from early yesterday at 1161 with the same 1149 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No change as I am still long from last week at 15.88 as the market just missed my 16.20 T/P level with a 16.11 high. I will leave my stop the same at 15.40 and if I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer in front of 15.20 with a 14.85 stop.
Support your potential at the IG Insights Summit
I am pleased to extend an invitation to you to attend the IG Insights Summit, taking place in the Aviva Stadium on Thursday 15 October from 8am – 5.30pm.
This daylong event will be jam-packed with insights on trading and investing, and give you plenty of opportunity to challenge our expert panel with your own questions. I’ll be presenting a workshop on ‘What’s driving the markets today?’ which I hope you’ll make.
To book your complimentary seat, visit http://www.ig.com/ie/insightssummit and register as places are limited.
Highlights of the day include:
- A key note presentation on momentum investing from renowned financial markets guru Mark Shipman
- A panel discussion on the future of Irish property with the CEO of Hibernia REIT, CFO of Dalata Hotel Group, Chief Economist of Investec, and Market Editor of The Sunday Business Post
- Hear from adventurer and motivational speaker, Mark Pollock, on expecting problems as we explore possibilities
- Many investing and trading workshops from Irish and UK experts Look forward to seeing you there!
- Kind regards,
- Bryan
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