U.S. Indices continued to gain on Monday, with tech once again leading the upside, with semis largely outperforming. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rallied, seemingly continuing to benefit from the hiked CapEx plans announced alongside earnings from AMZN, META and GOOGL. The NASDAQ outperformed while the Dow lagged; sectors were predominantly firmer, with Tech and Materials leading, while Consumer Staples and Healthcare lagged. T-Notes had largely managed to pare earlier losses with the initial downside stemming from weakness in JGBs after the Japan election, with lows seen after reports that China is urging banks to curb US Treasury exposure. Alphabet (GOOGL) also hit the market with an upsized USD 20 billion 7-parter, although T-Notes settled largely flat. In FX, the Japanese Yen was one of the outperformers after the Takaichi landslide in the election, which resulted in bolstered rate hike bets from the Bank of Japan due to her pro-growth policies. The Yen strength and reports of China curbing US Treasury exposure weighed on the Dollar to see it clearly underperform, propping up G10 currencies. Precious Metals continued to rebound, with Gold reclaiming USD 5,000/oz. In the UK, the political landscape continues to dictate UK assets with both Gilts and pounds rebounding from morning lows after PM Starmer’s cabinet publicly supported the PM in the face of calls to resign. Attention this week turns to the US NFP on Wednesday and CPI on Friday, while bond traders will be eyeing 3, 10 and 30-year supply. Energy traders will be eyeing further talks between US and Iran, with crude prices settling in the green today, albeit primarily due to dollar weakness. The New York Fed Survey of consumer expectations saw a modest improvement in earnings, job loss and job finding expectations. The median one-year ahead inflation expectation dropped to 3.1% from 3.4%, with the three and five-year steady at 3.0%. Earnings growth expectations rose by 0.2% to 2.7%, primarily driven by households with an income of under USD 50,000. Regarding employment, the mean expected probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.4% to 14.8%, remaining slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 14.6%. The mean expected probability of finding a job in the next three months if current jobs were lost increased by 2.5% to 45.6%, remaining below the trailing 12-month average of 48.6%. Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated, with a smaller share expecting to be better off a year from now and a larger share expecting to be worse off. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.27% while Gold built on Friday’s rebound ending Monday’s session with a gain of 1.75%.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 235 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3787 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.47% higher at a price of 6964.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 20 points higher for a 0.04% gain at a price of 50,135.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.77% higher at a price of 25,268.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.66% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 2.28% higher at a price of 57,650.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.75% lower.
The Euro closed 0.82% higher at $1.1911.
The British Pound closed 0.52% higher at $1.3680.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.93% closing at $155.93
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points higher at 4.54%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.83%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.27% higher at $64.36 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.74% higher at $5053.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am followed by Retail Sales and the Employment Cost Index at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Business Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Logan at 6.05 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It shows how strong the market is when it can ignore the bearish news that went on Cryptos and Precious Metals over the past three weeks. The fact that the S&P got within 1% of all-time highs yesterday is hardly believable. With the Nikkei tagging on a further 1200 points overnight to yet another all-time high my ‘Nothing Matters’ theme shows no sign of ending anytime soon. With valuations and sentiment at nosebleed levels I will continue to be a seller of rallies as the risk/reward for buying here does not add up in my opinion. Yesterday’s rally saw the S&P hit my 6978-sell level. As I wanted to bank some points for Monday, I covered this position at my revied 6963 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 7005/7030 with a higher 7051 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6981. My only interest in buying the market is on move lower to my short-term support level from 6830/6855 with the same 6805 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 6886. If this view changes, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
A late rally saw the Euro close above 1.19 in New York. I am still flat as the Euro never came close to Monday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1.1750/1.1830 with a higher 1.1675 ‘Closing Stop’. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.2040/1.2120 where I will be a small seller with a 1.2205 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1890. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1960.
Dollar Index
Overnight the Dollar finally traded lower to my initial 96.80 buy level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 96.00 while leaving my 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave my 97.35 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell as the market traded in a narrow range on Monday following Friday’s explosive rally. The Russell has short-term resistance from 2710/2770 where I will continue to be a seller with the same 2825 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2660.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE never came close to Monday’s sell range. Today, I will lower my sell level to 10430/10530 with a lower 10605 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10370. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully the Dow saw some early afternoon weakness, hitting a low at 49830. This move lower saw my revised 49915 T/P level triggered on Friday’s 50000 short position and I am still flat. The Dow has short-term resistance from 50350/50600 where I will again be a small seller with a higher 50805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 50130. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Monday’s rally saw the NDX hit my sell range for a now 25330 short position. I will continue to look to add to this position at 25510 while leaving my 25655 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 25210. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund never came close to Monday’s buy range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 126.90/127.70 with the same 126.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.25. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold tagged on a further 2% yesterday and I am still flat. Given the volatility I have no interest in chasing the market higher believing that we can break down again without notice. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 4730/4800 with the same 4595 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4910. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Incredible rally of Friday’s 64.10 low print with Silver hitting an afternoon low on Monday at 84.30. This rally was 8% higher from where I marked prices yesterday morning. Just like Gold above I have no interest in chasing the price of Silver higher preferring to wait for a pull back before attempting a new long position. We have short-term support below from 69.10/73.10 where I will again be a buyer with the same 66.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 75.80
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