Yesterday’s ADP Employment Change came in very strong with 298,000 new jobs created. This number, that is an amalgam of historical trends, other macroeconomic indicators (such as Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as ADP’s own payroll processing data, is often a less than reliable guide to the official payrolls figures. It is nevertheless seeing economists lift their forecasts for tomorrow’s number. The consensus heading into ADP was for a gain of around 200,000. Chances are the median NFP forecast will move up to at least 225,000 but with the ‘whisper number’ for tomorrow likely to be closer to 250,000. In truth, I will be more interested in the earnings component of the report, though it’s hard to see even a below-expectations number here derailing a Fed hike next Wednesday. I and the market are already focussed on what the new ‘dot plots’ will reveal and therefore how comfortable the Fed now feels about its prior guidance that rates will likely rise three time this year and by the same again next year.