Teresa May promised to resign as British Prime Minister if her Conservative colleagues drop their opposition to her Brexit strategy and vote to ratify her deal. Tories including Boris Johnson and Iain Duncan Smith told colleagues they will back down and support the divorce agreement. But the DUP, the small Northern Ireland Group that props up May’s minority government, issued a statement saying it will oppose the deal if is put to another vote. Sterling fell on this news. PM May has spent two years negotiating the accord, and it has been rejected twice by huge majorities in Parliament. If she succeeds in persuading a majority of members in Parliament to vote through the agreement – potentially as early as tomorrow- it will represent one of the biggest political comebacks in recent British history. The price for Ms May will be severe. ‘’I am prepared to leave the job earlier than I intended in order to do what is right for our country and our party’’, May told a packed meeting of Conservative MPs. Just as I go to press the UK MPs have voted to extend exit date but no majority outcome for alternative options.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 155 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1092 points for March, having made 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Currencies
The Euro made new lows for March after ECB President Dragi said an accommodative stance is still needed. Dragi also said that risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The Euro fell to an initial low of 1.1248 on this news before rebounding 40 points. However once German Bund Yields inched further into negative territory the Euro made a fresh low at 1.1242 where it closed in New York. Dragi said he would adjust ‘’Forward Guidance’’ if there are delays to inflation convergence.
Meanwhile Cable closed at 1.3195 having tested 1.3270 earlier in the afternoon session. Following the latest Parliamentary votes it is currently trading at 1.3145.
Bonds
Two Year Treasury Yields hit a thirteen month low as global bond yields continue to slump. The Bund yield fell to a 2 ½ year low at – 9 basis points on comments from ECB President Dragi. This low yield is just insane and shows how weak the European Economies are at this time. The Daily Sentiment Index has now registered four consecutive days of at least 93% bond bulls. On this basis I certainly would not be buying any Bunds or US Treasuries. The Yield on 10-Year Treasuries fell to 2.37%.
Equities
The US Equity markets had wild trading session yesterday, having rallied early, then got hit by a wave of selling before rallying into the close. This late rally saw the S&P pair its losses to close 0.5% lower at 2805.
Commodities
The strong US Dollar weighed on the precious metals with Gold and Silver closing near their lows at $1310 and $15.29 respectively. The sell-off in Gold filtered into oil with WTI closing 0.9% lower at $59.41 a barrel.
This morning in the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 8.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Investor Confidence, Business Climate and Industrial Confidence at 10.00 am. At 12.30 pm we have US Weekly Jobless Claims, and GDP. Next at 1.00 pm we have German CPI, followed by US Pending Home Sales at 2.00 pm. Finally at 3.00 pm we have the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index.
Meanwhile the Fed’s Quarles, Clarida and Williams are all speaking at 11.15 am, 1.30 pm and 5.15 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
The afternoon sell-off in US Equities saw all three of my stock Indices get hit. The S&P traded the whole of my buy range for an average long position at 2798. Subsequently the S&P rallied and I used this rally to exit any long position at my revised 2802 T/P level and I am still flat. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2776/2788 with a 2767 stop. The S&P just missed my 2837 sell level with a 2832 high print. Today I will now lower my sell level to 2831/2843 with a 2849 stop.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1250 buy level before rallying to my 1.1280 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Euro on any dip lower to 1.1185/1.1225 with a 1.1145 stop. Given how close we are to long term support I do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 95.60/95.95 with the same 95.25 stop.
June DAX
Despite the volatility in US Markets the DAX held in well yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will leave my 11245/11305 buy level unchanged with a 11195 stop.
June FTSE
The FTSE just missed my 7070 initial buy level before rallying into the close on the slight late weakening of Sterling. I am still flat and today I will now lower my buy level 7015/7055 with a lower 6965 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market falling to my 25440 buy level before rallying 200 points. Unfortunately as all three of my Indices hit at the same time I covered my long Dow position at my revised 25490 T/P level and I am now flat. So far the Dow is holding both its 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages which is a plus. Today I will again look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 25250/25400 with a 25130 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
June NASDAQ
After the NASDAQ traded lower to my 7290 buy level I covered this position at my revised 7305 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any further dip to 7205/7255 with a 7165 tight stop.
June BUND
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading higher on Dragi to my 166.15 sell level before selling off to my revised 165.95 T/P level and I am now flat. A combination of a severely overbought and overvalued market on top of the DSI for the US Treasuries at 93% means I will continue to be a seller on rallies. The Bund has strong resistance from 166.80/167.30 and today I will be a seller in this area with a 167.65 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I still do not trust this market. My only interest in buying Gold is still from 1294/1302 with the same 1287 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 14.85/15.25 with a 14.55 stop and a 15.41 T/P level if executed.
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