U.S. Indexes were mixed with a clear divergence seen, as the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 was the clear laggard amid broad-based weakness in semiconductor names, although the Mag-7 names notably firmed. Meta (META +8.8%) was the notable outperformer, buoyed by a Bloomberg report that the Company plans to build a Cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity. As such, Communications sat atop the sectoral breakdown, with Technology and Utilities at the bottom, with the former on the aforementioned reasons, with sectors overall mixed. Little came out of the US/Iran technical talks, and the crude complex settled in the red as participants await further developments in the Middle East. T-notes steepened as Fed Chair Warsh stuck to the script, offering few fresh hawkish surprises, while the Dollar broadly saw gains versus the G10 FX peers. The Pound managed to eke out gains, albeit seeing some intra-day weakness, as Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the softening economy and labour market were the reasons not to raise rates. Precious metals firmed, with spot silver noticing greater gains than its counterpart. There was a slew of US labour market data on Wednesday, ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday, brought forward a day on account of the US market holiday. Overall, there was little market reaction, although Challenger announced 45,849 job cuts in June, marking the lowest monthly total since December 2025, with Tech once again leading the most losses as AI remains a key citation. ADP was 98k, falling M/M and beneath the expected, while Revelio Labs Nonfarm Payrolls came in hot at +258.5k, jumping M/M. ISM Mfg. PMI was largely weak, as the headline disappointed, as did most of the internals, but the price metrics encouragingly declined. Fed Chair Warsh to the script he gave at his first FOMC Press Conference in June. He reiterated the central bank’s commitment to delivering price stability, noting that prices are too high. He continued to refrain from giving forward guidance on policy and the balance sheet but said there will be dot plots at least for the short term, though he described forward guidance as an obstacle that prevents them from having health debates at meetings. Warsh described labour markets as steady with a solid supply side, whilst acknowledging inflation expectations over the past four weeks have eased. Warsh teased news next week on the task force leaders that he has appointed. On productivity, he noted that over the last year, it is in the high 2% range, and if the last four quarters are an indication, it is a reason to be optimistic. Lastly, Warsh said it is no secret he wanted balance sheet to be smaller, and has not changed his view in the first four weeks at the Fed. The Headline Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 from 54.0, below the 53.8 consensus. New Orders fell to 56.0 from 56.8, the production index fell to 52.2 from 54.3, and the backlog of orders also dropped to 50.5 from 52.2. Although all metrics remain above 50, it indicates growth in the latest month, but not as fast as what was seen in May. Pantheon Macroeconomics explains that the rush of activity aimed at getting ahead of supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East showed signs of fading in June. The desk also highlights that the drop in the headline was led by the drop in supplier delivery times to 57.4 from 60.6, and partly reflects supply side improvements rather than weaker demand alone. Meanwhile, the pricing and labour metrics were encouraging, with the Prices Index dropping to 73 from 82.1. Meanwhile, employment rose to 49.7 from 48.6, albeit still below the 50 level. Pantheon writes that the big picture is that the manufacturing sector still seems to be in relatively good health. ADP national employment change for June was 98k, falling from May’s 122k, and beneath the expected 110k. Median change in annual pay Y/Y was unchanged for job-stayers M/M at 4.4%, while job-changers ticked marginally higher to 6.6% from 6.5%. ADP’s Chief Economist Richardson says, “The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there are also signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.6% while Gold was firmer, ending Wednesday’s trading session with a gain of 1.4%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 177 points yesterday on the first trading session for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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