U.S. Indexes were mixed with a clear divergence seen, as the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 was the clear laggard amid broad-based weakness in semiconductor names, although the Mag-7 names notably firmed. Meta (META +8.8%) was the notable outperformer, buoyed by a Bloomberg report that the Company plans to build a Cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity. As such, Communications sat atop the sectoral breakdown, with Technology and Utilities at the bottom, with the former on the aforementioned reasons, with sectors overall mixed. Little came out of the US/Iran technical talks, and the crude complex settled in the red as participants await further developments in the Middle East. T-notes steepened as Fed Chair Warsh stuck to the script, offering few fresh hawkish surprises, while the Dollar broadly saw gains versus the G10 FX peers. The Pound managed to eke out gains, albeit seeing some intra-day weakness, as Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the softening economy and labour market were the reasons not to raise rates. Precious metals firmed, with spot silver noticing greater gains than its counterpart. There was a slew of US labour market data on Wednesday, ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday, brought forward a day on account of the US market holiday. Overall, there was little market reaction, although Challenger announced 45,849 job cuts in June, marking the lowest monthly total since December 2025, with Tech once again leading the most losses as AI remains a key citation. ADP was 98k, falling M/M and beneath the expected, while Revelio Labs Nonfarm Payrolls came in hot at +258.5k, jumping M/M. ISM Mfg. PMI was largely weak, as the headline disappointed, as did most of the internals, but the price metrics encouragingly declined. Fed Chair Warsh to the script he gave at his first FOMC Press Conference in June. He reiterated the central bank’s commitment to delivering price stability, noting that prices are too high. He continued to refrain from giving forward guidance on policy and the balance sheet but said there will be dot plots at least for the short term, though he described forward guidance as an obstacle that prevents them from having health debates at meetings. Warsh described labour markets as steady with a solid supply side, whilst acknowledging inflation expectations over the past four weeks have eased. Warsh teased news next week on the task force leaders that he has appointed. On productivity, he noted that over the last year, it is in the high 2% range, and if the last four quarters are an indication, it is a reason to be optimistic. Lastly, Warsh said it is no secret he wanted balance sheet to be smaller, and has not changed his view in the first four weeks at the Fed. The Headline Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 from 54.0, below the 53.8 consensus. New Orders fell to 56.0 from 56.8, the production index fell to 52.2 from 54.3, and the backlog of orders also dropped to 50.5 from 52.2. Although all metrics remain above 50, it indicates growth in the latest month, but not as fast as what was seen in May. Pantheon Macroeconomics explains that the rush of activity aimed at getting ahead of supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East showed signs of fading in June. The desk also highlights that the drop in the headline was led by the drop in supplier delivery times to 57.4 from 60.6, and partly reflects supply side improvements rather than weaker demand alone. Meanwhile, the pricing and labour metrics were encouraging, with the Prices Index dropping to 73 from 82.1. Meanwhile, employment rose to 49.7 from 48.6, albeit still below the 50 level. Pantheon writes that the big picture is that the manufacturing sector still seems to be in relatively good health. ADP national employment change for June was 98k, falling from May’s 122k, and beneath the expected 110k. Median change in annual pay Y/Y was unchanged for job-stayers M/M at 4.4%, while job-changers ticked marginally higher to 6.6% from 6.5%. ADP’s Chief Economist Richardson says, “The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there are also signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.6% while Gold was firmer, ending Wednesday’s trading session with a gain of 1.4%.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 177 points yesterday on the first trading session for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.22% lower at a price of 7483.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 13 points lower for a 0.03% loss at a price of 52,305.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.54% lower at a price of 29,809.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.38% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.59% higher at a price of 70,474.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.23% higher.
The Euro closed 0.39% lower at $1.1373.
The British Pound closed 0.11% higher at $1.3272.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.02% closing at $162.62.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.76%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.94%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.61% lower at $68.38 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.41% higher at $4063.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have Euro-Zone Unemployment at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Next, we have U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Finally, we have Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The VIX 1-Day closed at just 13, which is a very low level heading into a jobs report that I think is as important as this one, given the trends we have been seeing in both the Dollar and Interest rates. On the surface, the equity market does not seem concerned about this report in the least. It also means that, unless implied volatility really ramps up this morning, the odds of a post-jobs-report volatility crush are unlikely. Meanwhile, Kalshi is betting on 140,000 jobs being created in the June report, and that estimate has been steadily trending higher over the past few days. In some ways, it feels similar to what we saw heading into the May jobs report just a month ago, when expectations were also relatively low. It is worth noting that 21-day realised volatility is now trading above the VIX Index. That does not mean much by itself, especially if realised volatility in the S&P 500 continues to move lower. However, a sudden jolt could push the VIX significantly higher. Based on that historical spread, we could easily see the VIX move back to 22. Meanwhile, the 3-month implied correlation index rose slightly on Wednesday and failed to surpass the July 3, 2024, low. This was due to a sharp decline in semiconductor stocks. The SMH dropped by more than 5%, and it has clearly been the leader of both the market and the dispersion trade for some time. It is hard to say what will happen next because semiconductors are inherently volatile. However, with implied correlation this low and index implied volatility very low relative to single-stock implied volatility, you could certainly see a situation where a hot jobs report triggers a surge in the VIX Index and a fairly sharp unwind of the market’s dispersion trade. Additionally, a hot jobs report would likely trigger further Dollar strength and push Interest Rates higher. While that would almost certainly weaken the Japanese Yen and Korean Won, if this is truly about a broader regime shift, those weaker currencies carry trades are unlikely to be major factors. Finally, today will mark the first day of the Treasury bill net issuance calendar for July, and it will be a heavy one at that. I was lucky that before the S&P spiked higher on Wednesday the market did sell off to my 7452 T/P level on my latest 7461 average short position and I am still flat. The S&P has short-term resistance from 7515/7540 where I will be a small seller with a 7561 tight ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has strong support below from 7395/7420 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 7371 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7489. If I am taken long. I will have a T/P level at 7448. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1485 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls I will now raise my Dollar sell level to 101.90/102.60 with a higher 103.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 101.30.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell from last week at a price of 3015. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 2980. I will add to this trade at 3085 while leaving my 3155 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to Wednesday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will leave my buy level unchanged from 10330/10400 with the same 10265 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10470.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 52540-sell level before trading lower to my revised 52350 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a small seller of the Dow on any further rally to 52650/52950 with a higher 53205 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52330.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX led Wednesday’s decline following the 5% sell-off in the Semi-Conductor Index. This move lower saw the NDX hit my buy range overnight for a now 29740 long position. I will add to this position at 29540 while leaving my 29395 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 29920. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Higher Treasury Yields saw the Bund sell-off to my 129.90 T/P level on my latest 127.35 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller of the Bund from 127.60/128.30 with a higher 129.05 ‘Closing Stop’. The Bund has short-term support below from 125.40/126.20 where I will be a buyer with a 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 126.95. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 126.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold saw plenty of two-way price action on Wednesday. The initial move higher saw Gold hit my 4050-exit level on my 4068 long position and I am now flat. Gold has support below at 3850/3950 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 3745 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4030.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver never came close to Wednesday’s buy level before rallying 300 points and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 55.00/58.00 with a higher 52.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 60.30.
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