Three remains the number of times the Fed thinks it will most likely raise rates this year in total, and again in 2018. Together with the absence of any reference to when balance sheet shrinkage might commence (either in the FOMC statement or in Janet Yellen’s press conference) and a view that inflation – currently described as below target ex-food and energy – is likely to stabilise around 2% over the medium term rather than move above, marked out the Fed affair as slightly more dovish than some were positioned for going in to the FOMC pronouncements. The dissent of one FOMC member, Neel Kashkari, in favour of no change today was noted though really no surprise. The Fed wasn’t dovish per se, but with near record short speculative positioning in the US interest rate futures markets, and an expectation that if the Fed was going to do anything today with the ‘dots’ it would be to ratchet three up to four for either this year or next, markets really only had one way to react. Hence 10yr yields are down some 10bps (to 2.498%) and 2s down 7 bps.

To mark my 1300th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested can you please contact me on

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 19 points yesterday and is now ahead by 615 points for March, having made 1481 points in February, 1734 in January, 1351 in December, 1971 in November and 1582 in October. The previous four months saw gains of 1142, 1782, 1682 and 2550 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1800 points.

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